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03.10.2026 16:00
York Lions Stadium
York United
Match Timeline
Cavalry FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
S. Gonzales · Assist: A. Almagro
York United
⚽
12'
S. Yeates · Assist: A. Almagro
York United
🟨
33'
Raúl López
York United
VAR
35'
Eryk Kobza
Cavalry FC
VAR
41'
Ali Musse
Cavalry FC
🔄
46'
J. McGlinchey ↔ H. Paton
Cavalry FC
🟨
50'
Steffen Yeates
York United
🔄
65'
Fewo ↔ C. Ofori
Cavalry FC
🔄
65'
O. Graham-Roache ↔ O. Antoniuk
Cavalry FC
🔄
65'
N. Edwards ↔ M. Henry
Cavalry FC
⚽
69'
S. Yeates · Assist: A. Almagro
York United
🟨
71'
Harrison Paton
Cavalry FC
🟨
73'
Luke Singh
York United
🔄
74'
D. Klomp ↔ H. Ayari
Cavalry FC
🟨
77'
Ariel Almagro
York United
🟨
78'
Eryk Kobza
Cavalry FC
VAR
79'
Eryk Kobza
Cavalry FC
⚽
83'
A. Didic · Assist: A. Musse
Cavalry FC
🔄
86'
A. Almagro ↔ L. Accettola
York United
🟨
90+8'
Mael Henry
Cavalry FC
🟨
90+2'
Ali Musse
Cavalry FC
🔄
90+7'
S. Yeates ↔ K. Clarke
York United
🔄
90+3'
S. Gonzales ↔ E. Ramos
York United

York United vs Cavalry FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
York United Win 32.3%
Draw 11.6%
Cavalry FC Win 56.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
York United1.19
Cavalry FC2.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
York United York United
WWDLW
37 GF / 53 GA
Cavalry FC Cavalry FC
WLDWL
50 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
2.08
2.21
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
19
BTTS Yes
12
15
Over 2.5
12
3.96
Shots on Goal
4.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

York United York United 24 matches
Cavalry FC Cavalry FC 24 matches
York United Statistic Cavalry FC
6 Wins 16
9 Draws 5
9 Losses 3
37 Goals For 50
53 Goals Against 16
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 2.08
2.21 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
19 BTTS Yes 12
21 Over 1.5 18
15 Over 2.5 12
14 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 10
2 Failed To Score 3
3.96 Shots On Goal 4.83
11.87 Total Shots 12.21
3.3 Corners 4.67
46.4% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Cavalry FC's more proactive style and York United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Cavalry FC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 50 points while York United sit 7 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cavalry FC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with York United expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Cavalry FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cavalry FC having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cavalry FC. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

York United Analysis

York United are currently 7 in the standings with 24 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses, while the 33:49 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Skublak (2 goals), L. Accettola (2 goals), S. Yeates (1 goals), with creative support from O. Bassett (2 assists), T. Skublak (1 assists), L. Accettola (1 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cavalry FC Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 50 points from 22 games, Cavalry FC bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 15 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a 42:13 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on A. Musse (3 goals), S. Camargo (2 goals), N. Edwards (2 goals), with creative support from A. Didic (2 assists), G. Ntignee (2 assists), E. Kobza (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, York United won 3 times, Cavalry FC won 10 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:32 from York United's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: York United 3-4-3 / Cavalry FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: York United wins 3, draws 2, Cavalry FC wins 10

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 57:23 34 57
W D L L W
2 27 17 6 4 48:21 27 57
W W W D D
3 27 13 4 10 41:43 -2 43
L W W W L
4 27 10 7 10 39:36 3 37
W D D D D
5 27 10 5 12 43:47 -4 35
W D W W L
6 27 7 7 13 41:46 -5 28
L D D L W
7 27 6 9 12 40:64 -24 27
L L L W L
8 27 2 8 17 32:61 -29 14
L L L L W