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TURKEY › SüPER LIG
18.10.2026 10:30
Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium
Referee: F. Tokail
Kasımpaşa
Match Timeline
Samsunspor
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
26'
C. Winck · Assist: A. Kol
Kasımpaşa
⚽
31'
A. Arous · Assist: A. Benedyczak
Kasımpaşa
⚽
45'
T. Coulibaly
Samsunspor
🔄
46'
E. Kilinc ↔ A. Sousa
Samsunspor
🟨
51'
E. Belozoglu
Kasımpaşa
🟨
55'
A. Sousa
Samsunspor
VAR
58'
T. Coulibaly
Samsunspor
⚽
64'
A. Arous · Assist: J. Rak-Sakyi
Kasımpaşa
🔄
70'
Y. E. Cift ↔ S. Erakovic
Samsunspor
🔄
70'
O. Ohlenschlaeger ↔ A. Sekongo
Samsunspor
⚽
78'
A. Benedyczak · Assist: K. Demirbay
Kasımpaşa
🟨
79'
E. Mendes
Kasımpaşa
🔄
82'
A. Kol ↔ T. Diarra
Kasımpaşa
🔄
82'
A. Benedyczak ↔ G. Yalcin
Kasımpaşa
🔄
83'
K. Demirbay ↔ H. Hajradinovic
Kasımpaşa
🔄
86'
A. Karapo ↔ K. Mouanga
Kasımpaşa
🔄
86'
J. Rak-Sakyi ↔ M. Rafferty
Kasımpaşa
🔄
86'
Y. Kayan ↔ E. Tavsan
Samsunspor
🔄
86'
T. Coulibaly ↔ S. Jarju
Samsunspor
🟨
89'
E. Watt
Samsunspor

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65%
Odds 2.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65%
2.53 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.13 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.30 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Kasımpaşa Win 65%
Draw 4.9%
Samsunspor Win 30.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kasımpaşa1.65
Samsunspor0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
WWDLW
23 GF / 11 GA
Samsunspor Samsunspor
WLDWL
11 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
0.92
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.83
8
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
7
3.29
Shots on Goal
3.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 15 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor 12 matches
Kasımpaşa Statistic Samsunspor
8 Wins 3
6 Draws 2
1 Losses 7
23 Goals For 11
11 Goals Against 22
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.83
8 BTTS Yes 5
12 Over 1.5 9
6 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 6
3.29 Shots On Goal 3.14
11.43 Total Shots 14.57
3.43 Corners 4.57
41.1% Ball Possession 56.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Samsunspor. Kasımpaşa arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 10 points compared to Samsunspor in 16 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Samsunspor arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Kasımpaşa Analysis

Kasımpaşa are currently 8 in the standings with 10 points from 7 matches. The record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 8:8 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Adrian Benedyczak (4 goals), Güven Yalçın (2 goals), Fousseni Diabaté (1 goals), with creative support from Cláudio Winck (2 assists), Adrian Benedyczak (1 assists), Elson Mendes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Samsunspor Analysis

With 4 points from 7 games and a place of 16, Samsunspor still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 6:15 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Emre Kılınç (1 goals), Josafat Mendes (1 goals), Fatih Kaya (1 goals), with creative support from Saikuba Jarju (2 assists), Emre Kılınç (1 assists), Josafat Mendes (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Kasımpaşa won 3 times, Samsunspor won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:9 from Kasımpaşa's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1 / Samsunspor 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Kasımpaşa 3, Samsunspor 2
H2H summary: Kasımpaşa wins 3, draws 1, Samsunspor wins 3

Standings

Süper Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 17:11 6 19
W W L W W
2 8 5 2 1 18:9 9 17
W D W W D
3 8 5 1 2 22:6 16 16
W W W D L
4 7 5 0 2 16:8 8 15
W L W W W
5 7 4 1 2 16:5 11 13
W W L W L
6 8 4 1 3 18:13 5 13
W W L W W
7 8 3 4 1 12:9 3 13
W L D W D
8 8 4 0 4 9:8 1 12
L L W L W
9 8 3 3 2 8:9 -1 12
L D W D W
10 8 3 2 3 12:12 0 11
W D W L L
11 8 3 2 3 5:11 -6 11
W D W L W
12 8 3 1 4 8:11 -3 10
L L D W L
13 8 2 3 3 17:16 1 9
W W D D L
14 8 2 2 4 8:12 -4 8
L L L D W
15 8 2 2 4 7:16 -9 8
L D L L L
16 8 1 2 5 4:9 -5 5
L D D W L
17 8 1 1 6 7:19 -12 4
L L L L L
18 8 1 0 7 2:22 -20 3
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. Lig