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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
21.10.2026 10:00
Nissan Stadium

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
19.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Yokohama F. Marinos Win 69%
Draw 4.4%
Tokyo Verdy Win 26.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Yokohama F. Marinos1.5
Tokyo Verdy0.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos
WWDLW
13 GF / 9 GA
Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy
WLDWL
4 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
0.4
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.8
4
BTTS Yes
4
2
Over 2.5
3
3.1
Shots on Goal
2.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 10 matches
Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 10 matches
Yokohama F. Marinos Statistic Tokyo Verdy
4 Wins 0
4 Draws 4
2 Losses 6
13 Goals For 4
9 Goals Against 18
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 0.4
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.8
4 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 8
2 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 6
3.1 Shots On Goal 2.1
11.5 Total Shots 8.6
3.7 Corners 3.3
49.5% Ball Possession 40.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Yokohama F. Marinos's more proactive style and Tokyo Verdy's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Yokohama F. Marinos expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Tokyo Verdy in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tokyo Verdy having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tokyo Verdy. Yokohama F. Marinos arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 15 points compared to Tokyo Verdy in 20 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Tokyo Verdy arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis

So far, Yokohama F. Marinos have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 15 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 13:9 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Tanimura (4 goals), J. Quiñónes (1 goals), T. Inoue (1 goals), with creative support from K. Matsumura (2 assists), T. Kondo (2 assists), J. Amano (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Tokyo Verdy Analysis

Tokyo Verdy sit 20 with 4 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats with a 4:14 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Mizoguchi (1 goals), N. Hayashi (1 goals), Y. Arai (1 goals), with creative support from S. Mizoguchi (1 assists), I. Someno (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Yokohama F. Marinos won 4 times, Tokyo Verdy won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:6 from Yokohama F. Marinos's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Yokohama F. Marinos 4-2-3-1 / Tokyo Verdy 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Yokohama F. Marinos wins 4, draws 1, Tokyo Verdy wins 2

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 0 2 21:14 7 21
W W W L L
2 9 6 2 1 22:6 16 20
W W W L W
3 9 6 2 1 22:10 12 20
W L D W W
4 9 6 2 1 17:8 9 20
W W W W D
5 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
6 9 5 1 3 19:16 3 16
W D L L L
7 9 4 3 2 13:9 4 15
D W D W D
8 9 3 4 2 17:14 3 13
L D W W L
9 9 4 1 4 12:12 0 13
L L W W W
10 9 4 1 4 8:9 -1 13
W W W L D
11 9 4 0 5 16:21 -5 12
L W L W W
12 9 3 3 3 7:12 -5 12
D D L D W
13 9 2 3 4 12:13 -1 9
L L L D W
14 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
D D W L D
15 9 3 0 6 9:15 -6 9
W L L L L
16 9 2 2 5 11:16 -5 8
L W L L D
17 9 2 1 6 11:13 -2 7
W L L D L
18 9 1 3 5 8:16 -8 6
L L L L D
19 9 1 2 6 8:19 -11 5
D L D W L
20 9 0 4 5 4:14 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League