ENGLAND NATIONAL LEAGUE
12.09.2026 11:30
Sussex Transport Community Stadium

Worthing vs Barrow Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.2%
Odds 2.70
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.2%
2.70
BTTS Yes
86%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.69
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Worthing Win 63.2%
Draw 5.1%
Barrow Win 31.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Worthing1.55
Barrow1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Worthing Worthing
WWDLW
24 GF / 17 GA
Barrow Barrow
WLDWL
17 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
9
BTTS Yes
5
9
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Worthing Worthing 13 matches
Barrow Barrow 11 matches
Worthing Statistic Barrow
6 Wins 5
4 Draws 3
3 Losses 3
24 Goals For 17
17 Goals Against 12
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
9 BTTS Yes 5
11 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 5
0 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Barrow having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Barrow. Worthing arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 16 with 6 points compared to Barrow in 23 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Worthing Analysis

Worthing approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 6 points from 5 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 9:10, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Barrow Analysis

Barrow sit 23 with 2 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 5:9 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)

Standings

Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 16:8 8 16
W W W W W
2 6 4 1 1 15:9 6 13
W W L D W
3 6 4 1 1 12:8 4 13
W D L W W
4 6 4 0 2 10:8 2 12
L W W L W
5 6 4 0 2 7:6 1 12
L L W W W
6 6 3 2 1 13:9 4 11
D W W L W
7 6 3 2 1 12:8 4 11
L W W W D
8 6 3 2 1 10:7 3 11
W D W D W
9 6 3 2 1 7:4 3 11
W D W D L
10 6 3 1 2 8:7 1 10
L D W W L
11 6 3 0 3 5:4 1 9
W L L L W
12 6 3 0 3 7:8 -1 9
W W W L L
13 6 3 0 3 7:10 -3 9
W L L L W
14 6 2 2 2 13:10 3 8
L W D W D
15 6 2 1 3 8:8 0 7
D L L W W
16 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
D L L W L
17 6 2 0 4 9:10 -1 6
L W L W L
18 6 1 2 3 8:9 -1 5
W D L D L
19 6 1 2 3 12:16 -4 5
D L W L L
20 6 1 2 3 7:11 -4 5
L W D L L
21 6 1 1 4 8:12 -4 4
L L W L L
22 6 1 1 4 5:9 -4 4
D L L L W
23 6 1 1 4 4:10 -6 4
L D L W L
24 6 0 1 5 6:17 -11 1
D L L L L
Promotion - League Two
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation