IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Regional Sports Centre
Referee: M. Lynch
Waterford
Match Timeline
Drogheda United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
M. Doyle
Drogheda United
35'
T. Lonergan · Assist: H. Cann
Waterford
🟨
41'
Shane Farell
Drogheda United
🟨
42'
Luke Heeney
Waterford
🔄
46'
A. Quinn ↔ L. Burney
Drogheda United
🟨
50'
Will Johnson
Waterford
🔄
54'
C. Keeley ↔ K. Cruise
Drogheda United
🟨
56'
Hayden Cann
Waterford
🟨
63'
Kevin Long
Waterford
🔄
64'
C. Noonan ↔ J. Voilas
Waterford
🔄
67'
B. Kavanagh ↔ J. Godden
Drogheda United
🔄
75'
L. Heeney ↔ J. Faria
Waterford
🟨
78'
Dean McMenamy
Waterford
🟨
90+6'
Tom Lonergan
Waterford
90'
T. Lonergan
Waterford

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 59.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
59.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 33.9%
Draw 21.8%
Drogheda United Win 44.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.34
Drogheda United1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
28 GF / 44 GA
Drogheda United Drogheda United
WLDWL
25 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
14
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
10
3.44
Shots on Goal
3.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 23 matches
Drogheda United Drogheda United 19 matches
Waterford Statistic Drogheda United
5 Wins 6
7 Draws 6
11 Losses 7
28 Goals For 25
44 Goals Against 29
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
14 BTTS Yes 13
18 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 10
10 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 2
3.44 Shots On Goal 3.44
11.88 Total Shots 9.63
5.19 Corners 4
40.1% Ball Possession 38.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Drogheda United. Drogheda United carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 19 points while Waterford sit 10 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford sit 10 with 7 points after 16 league matches. Their overall return of 0 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 15:34 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Lonergan (5 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), P. Amond (3 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), T. Lonergan (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Drogheda United Analysis

So far, Drogheda United have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 19 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 20:26 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Doyle (6 goals), Conor Keeley (3 goals), W. Davis (3 goals), with creative support from B. Kavanagh (2 assists), K. Cruise (2 assists), Conor Keeley (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 6 times, Drogheda United won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:24 from Waterford's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.2%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 5-3-2 / Drogheda United 5-3-2
H2H summary: Waterford wins 6, draws 4, Drogheda United wins 5
Stats
Waterford Waterford
Drogheda United Drogheda United
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
1
4 Corner Kicks 4
18 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 1
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Goal 6
3 Shots off Goal 4
6 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 7
5 Shots outsidebox 4
4 Goalkeeper Saves 1
231 Total passes 260
110 Passes accurate 141
1.71 expected_goals 1.38
🟨 6 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Waterford
Formation
Drogheda United
S. McMullan
S. McMullan
W. Johnson
W. Johnson
H. Cann
🎯
H. Cann
J. Mahon
J. Mahon
K. Long
K. Long
B. Couto
B. Couto
C. Noonan
C. Noonan
L. Heeney
L. Heeney
D. McMenamy
D. McMenamy
P. Amond
P. Amond
T. Lonergan
⚽ 2
T. Lonergan
F. Talley
F. Talley
E. Agbaje
E. Agbaje
C. Keeley
C. Keeley
A. Quinn
A. Quinn
C. Kane
C. Kane
S. Farrell
S. Farrell
R. Brennan
R. Brennan
W. Davis
W. Davis
B. Kavanagh
B. Kavanagh
T. Oluwa
T. Oluwa
M. Doyle
M. Doyle
Waterford 5-3-2
Starting XI
1
S. McMullan
G
4
W. Johnson
16
H. Cann
🎯 35' 🟨 56'
D
5
J. Mahon
D
13
K. Long
🟨 63'
D
3
B. Couto
D
10
C. Noonan
↓ 64'
M
15
L. Heeney
↓ 75' 🟨 42'
M
27
D. McMenamy
🟨 78'
M
9
P. Amond
F
18
T. Lonergan
⚽ 35' ⚽ 90' 🟨 90+6'
F
Substitutes
21
A. Doherty
G
11
T. Coyle
F
20
J. Voilas
↑ 64'
F
19
S. Glenfield
M
14
J. Dempsey
D
17
J. Faria
↑ 75'
M
7
C. Carty
F
6
C. Barrett
D
22
R. Mansfield
F
Drogheda United 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
44
F. Talley
G
2
E. Agbaje
D
22
C. Keeley
↓ 54'
D
4
A. Quinn
↓ 46'
D
3
C. Kane
D
17
S. Farrell
🟨 41'
M
19
R. Brennan
M
24
W. Davis
M
10
B. Kavanagh
↓ 67'
M
11
T. Oluwa
M
14
M. Doyle
⚽ 6'
F
Substitutes
1
L. Dennison
G
32
D. Mare
F
6
J. Godden
↑ 67'
F
5
L. Burney
↑ 46'
D
31
K. Cruise
↑ 54'
D
15
D. Kareem
F
29
J. Brennan
M
30
C. O'Connor
M
33
S. McGrath
M
Last matches: Waterford
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
4
2
W
26.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
Last matches: Drogheda United
10.07.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
2
1
W
03.07.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
0
2
L
26.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
0
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Waterford
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
1
2
L
08.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
1
0
W
04.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
1
4
L
01.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
4
3
W
17.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Galway United
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
0
0
D
20.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
2
2
D
16.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
07.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
27.02.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
1
2
L
H2H: Waterford vs Drogheda United
29.05.26
H2H
Drogheda United
Waterford
3
3
D
18.05.26
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
13.02.26
H2H
Drogheda United
Waterford
2
0
L
05.10.25
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
0
W
08.08.25
H2H
Drogheda United
Waterford
0
0
D
30.05.25
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
2
D
04.04.25
H2H
Drogheda United
Waterford
2
0
L
11.10.24
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
0
D
26.07.24
H2H
Drogheda United
Waterford
2
0
L
23.05.24
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
4
2
W
23.02.24
H2H
Drogheda United
Waterford
1
4
W
24.09.21
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
1
0
W
30.07.21
H2H
Drogheda United
Waterford
1
2
W
08.05.21
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
7
L
19.03.21
H2H
Drogheda United
Waterford
1
0
L
Last matches: Waterford
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
20.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
06.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bohemians
1
4
L
20.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Kerry
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Riverstown FC
3
1
W
H2H at home: Waterford
18.05.26
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
05.10.25
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
0
W
30.05.25
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
2
D
11.10.24
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
0
D
23.05.24
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
4
2
W
24.09.21
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
1
0
W
08.05.21
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
7
L
Last matches: Drogheda United
10.07.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
2
1
W
26.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
15.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Bohemians
1
2
L
04.05.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
1
4
L
24.04.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
4
3
W
20.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Derry City
2
2
D
13.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
07.03.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
20.02.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Dundalk
1
1
D
06.02.26
Pre
Drogheda United
Galway United
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Drogheda United
Bray Wanderers
3
1
W
H2H away: Drogheda United
18.05.26
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
L
05.10.25
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
0
L
30.05.25
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
2
D
11.10.24
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
0
D
23.05.24
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
4
2
L
24.09.21
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
1
0
L
08.05.21
H2H
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
7
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1