URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.9%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Wanderers Win 69.9%
Draw 10.8%
Progreso Win 19.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Wanderers1.33
Progreso1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Wanderers Wanderers
WWDLW
22 GF / 24 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
16 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
0.84
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
10
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Wanderers Wanderers 19 matches
Progreso Progreso 19 matches
Wanderers Statistic Progreso
7 Wins 3
5 Draws 4
7 Losses 12
22 Goals For 16
24 Goals Against 30
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
10 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 13
10 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Progreso having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Progreso. Progreso arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Wanderers arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 26 points compared to Progreso in 15 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Wanderers Analysis

Wanderers are currently 8 in the standings with 26 points from 19 matches. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 22:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jonás Luna (4 goals), F. Labandeira (3 goals), J. Alberti (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 13 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 12 defeats with a 16:30 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Lopez (3 goals), G. Silva (2 goals), M. Copelotti (2 goals), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Wanderers won 6 times, Progreso won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:21 from Wanderers's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.2%)
Predicted formations: Wanderers - / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Wanderers wins 6, draws 3, Progreso wins 6
Last matches: Wanderers
05.06.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
5
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
1
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
1
4
L
28.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
3
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
13.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Central Espanol
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
0
4
L
13.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
08.11.25
Pri
Wanderers
CA River Plate
0
4
L
Last matches: Progreso
07.06.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
23.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
0
1
L
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Albion FC
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Central Espanol
0
3
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
H2H: Wanderers vs Progreso
18.04.26
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
1
L
21.09.25
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
0
L
27.03.25
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
1
1
D
10.11.24
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
0
0
D
14.07.24
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
4
2
W
04.05.24
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
W
15.11.21
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
3
1
L
31.07.21
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
W
21.03.21
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
1
3
L
20.09.20
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
3
0
L
05.10.19
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
0
1
L
09.03.19
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
2
2
D
23.09.18
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
3
2
W
31.03.18
H2H
Progreso
Wanderers
0
1
W
14.04.13
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
4
0
W
Last matches: Wanderers
05.06.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
08.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
28.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
06.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
0
4
L
07.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
08.11.25
Pri
Wanderers
CA River Plate
0
4
L
31.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
2
2
D
26.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
0
D
26.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
0
1
L
06.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
2
L
22.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
0
1
L
10.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Plaza Colonia
0
0
D
H2H at home: Wanderers
27.03.25
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
1
1
D
14.07.24
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
4
2
W
04.05.24
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
W
31.07.21
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
W
21.03.21
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
1
3
L
05.10.19
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
0
1
L
23.09.18
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
3
2
W
14.04.13
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
4
0
W
Last matches: Progreso
30.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
2
L
10.05.26
Pri
Progreso
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
27.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
0
1
L
26.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
Progreso
Cerro
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Danubio
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pri
Progreso
Juventud
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Liverpool Montevideo
1
3
L
10.10.25
Pri
Progreso
Plaza Colonia
1
0
W
29.09.25
Pri
Progreso
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
14.09.25
Pri
Progreso
CA River Plate
0
0
D
31.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Boston River
1
2
L
16.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Club Nacional
1
3
L
01.08.25
Pri
Progreso
Penarol
1
2
L
H2H away: Progreso
27.03.25
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
1
1
D
14.07.24
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
4
2
L
04.05.24
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
L
31.07.21
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
L
21.03.21
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
1
3
W
05.10.19
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
0
1
W
23.09.18
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
3
2
L
14.04.13
H2H
Wanderers
Progreso
4
0
L

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 12 3 4 35:20 15 39
W W D W W
2 19 10 7 2 25:15 10 37
D D D W L
3 19 11 3 5 28:18 10 36
W L W W W
4 19 9 5 5 29:20 9 32
W L L D W
5 19 10 1 8 31:26 5 31
W L W W W
6 19 9 4 6 27:25 2 31
D W L W W
7 19 8 5 6 29:24 5 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 5 7 22:24 -2 26
D W D D W
9 19 6 7 6 22:20 2 25
D W D L L
10 19 7 3 9 21:20 1 24
D W W L L
11 19 5 8 6 15:16 -1 23
D D L L L
12 19 6 3 10 19:26 -7 21
D L L W L
13 18 4 7 7 19:26 -7 19
D L L L L
14 18 5 3 10 22:29 -7 18
L L W W W
15 19 3 4 12 16:30 -14 13
L W L L L
16 19 3 4 12 10:31 -21 13
L L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)