CROATIA HNL
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Gradski vrt
Referee: M. Erceg
Vukovar
Match Timeline
HNK Gorica
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
Z. Trontelj · Assist: I. Pozo
HNK Gorica
🟨
27'
Kristijan Čabrajić
Vukovar
🟨
30'
Moreno Živković
Vukovar
🔄
32'
K. Cabrajic ↔ K. Calhanoglu
Vukovar
🟨
41'
Mario Tadić
Vukovar
VAR
45+1'
Eniss Shabani
Vukovar
45'
J. Puljic
Vukovar
🔄
46'
M. Tadic ↔ A. Bosec
Vukovar
🔄
59'
L. Banovec ↔ L. Kulusic
Vukovar
🟨
63'
Eniss Shabani
Vukovar
66'
A. Erceg
HNK Gorica
🔄
76'
S. Butic ↔ A. Jurilj
Vukovar
🔄
76'
E. Shabani ↔ P. Bugas
Vukovar
🔄
81'
B. Bogojevic ↔ O. Bakic
HNK Gorica
🟨
85'
Robin González
Vukovar
🟨
85'
Marijan Čabraja
HNK Gorica
🔄
89'
J. Prsir ↔ T. Epailly
HNK Gorica

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 50%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
58.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
50%
-
Probability Distribution
Vukovar Win 5.5%
Draw 37.7%
HNK Gorica Win 56.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vukovar1.16
HNK Gorica1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vukovar Vukovar
WWDLW
30 GF / 58 GA
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
WLDWL
34 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
19
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
14
2.6
Shots on Goal
3.37

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vukovar Vukovar 30 matches
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 30 matches
Vukovar Statistic HNK Gorica
5 Wins 8
9 Draws 8
16 Losses 14
30 Goals For 34
58 Goals Against 42
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
19 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 22
17 Over 2.5 14
11 Over 3.5 9
3 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 10
2.6 Shots On Goal 3.37
7.5 Total Shots 10.37
2.8 Corners 4.07
34.1% Ball Possession 44.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vukovar expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and HNK Gorica in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HNK Gorica having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Vukovar have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors HNK Gorica.

Vukovar Analysis

With 24 points from 30 games and a place of 10, Vukovar still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 16 defeats with a -:- goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Puljic (12 goals), R. Gonzalez (6 goals), Lovro Banovec (3 goals), with creative support from Lovro Banovec (4 assists), M. Ticinovic (3 assists), R. Gonzalez (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a balanced approach.

HNK Gorica Analysis

HNK Gorica are currently 8 in the standings with 32 points from 30 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a -:- goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jurica Pršir (5 goals), A. Erceg (4 goals), F. Cuic (4 goals), with creative support from Iker Pozo (5 assists), Marijan Čabraja (4 assists), Jurica Pršir (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a balanced approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Vukovar won 0 times, HNK Gorica won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from Vukovar's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Vukovar 4-2-3-1 / HNK Gorica 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Vukovar wins 0, draws 3, HNK Gorica wins 1
Stats
Vukovar Vukovar
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 2
15 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Goal 8
5 Shots off Goal 6
5 Blocked Shots 2
4 Shots insidebox 11
8 Shots outsidebox 5
6 Goalkeeper Saves 1
367 Total passes 389
279 Passes accurate 315
1.39 expected_goals 1.90
🟨 5 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Vukovar
Formation
HNK Gorica
M. Bulat
M. Bulat
M. Zivkovic
M. Zivkovic
M. Tadic
M. Tadic
N. Vlasenko
N. Vlasenko
K. Cabrajic
K. Cabrajic
J. Gurlica
J. Gurlica
E. Shabani
E. Shabani
S. Butic
S. Butic
R. Gonzalez
R. Gonzalez
L. Banovec
L. Banovec
J. Puljic
J. Puljic
D. Matijas
D. Matijas
S. Peric
S. Peric
J. Filipovic
J. Filipovic
M. Cabraja
M. Cabraja
Z. Trontelj
Z. Trontelj
I. Pozo
🎯
I. Pozo
A. Kavelj
A. Kavelj
B. Bogojevic
B. Bogojevic
J. Prsir
J. Prsir
D. Pavicic
D. Pavicic
A. Erceg
A. Erceg
Vukovar 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
M. Bulat
G
14
M. Zivkovic
🟨 30'
D
34
M. Tadic
↓ 46' 🟨 41'
D
5
N. Vlasenko
D
20
K. Cabrajic
↓ 32' 🟨 27'
D
35
J. Gurlica
M
77
E. Shabani
↓ 76' 🟨 63'
M
27
S. Butic
↓ 76'
M
10
R. Gonzalez
🟨 85'
M
28
L. Banovec
↓ 59'
M
21
J. Puljic
⚽ 45'
F
Substitutes
42
A. Djakovic
G
19
A. Jurilj
↑ 76'
M
39
P. Bugas
↑ 76'
F
33
L. Klanac
F
26
J. Elez
D
50
J. Spoljaric
M
6
J. Biljan
M
8
A. Bosec
↑ 46'
D
4
H. Sabanovic
D
7
K. Calhanoglu
↑ 32'
D
11
L. Kulusic
↑ 59'
F
HNK Gorica 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
71
D. Matijas
G
45
S. Peric
D
4
J. Filipovic
D
19
M. Cabraja
🟨 85'
M
22
Z. Trontelj
⚽ 19'
M
8
I. Pozo
🎯 19'
M
36
A. Kavelj
D
25
B. Bogojevic
↓ 81'
M
10
J. Prsir
↓ 89'
M
24
D. Pavicic
M
50
A. Erceg
⚽ 66'
F
Substitutes
30
D. Zarkov
G
1
M. Sahinovic
G
18
I. Fiolic
M
5
M. Les
D
99
M. Gashi
F
64
T. Epailly
↑ 89'
F
32
E. Durakovic
D
7
O. Bakic
↑ 81'
M
21
H. I. Moustapha
11
W. Sule
F
20
L. Vrzic
F
14
S. Kucis
M
Last matches: Vukovar
22.05.26
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Hajduk Split
3
6
L
15.05.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Varazdin
0
2
L
08.05.26
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Rijeka
0
3
L
02.05.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Osijek
1
0
W
25.04.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Slaven Belupo
2
2
D
18.04.26
HNL
Vukovar
Istra 1961
2
1
W
13.04.26
HNL
Vukovar
Dinamo Zagreb
1
4
L
07.04.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1
1
D
21.03.26
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Hajduk Split
0
6
L
13.03.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Varazdin
0
2
L
08.03.26
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
28.02.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Osijek
0
2
L
20.02.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Slaven Belupo
2
2
D
15.02.26
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Gorica
0
0
D
07.02.26
HNL
Vukovar
Istra 1961
3
2
W
02.02.26
HNL
Vukovar
Dinamo Zagreb
1
3
L
24.01.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
Vukovar
Velež
1
2
L
13.01.26
Fri
Vukovar
NK Slaven Belupo
2
2
D
10.01.26
Fri
Vukovar
Primorje
3
0
W
Last matches: HNK Gorica
04.07.26
Fri
HNK Gorica
Zorya Luhansk
2
1
W
23.05.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
HNK Rijeka
0
2
L
16.05.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Osijek
2
0
W
10.05.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Slaven Belupo
0
1
L
02.05.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb
1
2
L
27.04.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
1
0
W
17.04.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0
2
L
12.04.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
HNK Hajduk Split
0
1
L
03.04.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
1
1
D
22.03.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
HNK Rijeka
4
0
W
14.03.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Osijek
0
0
D
07.03.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Slaven Belupo
2
2
D
01.03.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb
2
4
L
21.02.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
2
0
W
15.02.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
Vukovar
0
0
D
06.02.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0
3
L
31.01.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
HNK Hajduk Split
1
0
W
26.01.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
1
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
HNK Gorica
Zalaegerszegi TE
1
0
W
13.01.26
Fri
HNK Gorica
Radomlje
2
0
W
H2H: Vukovar vs HNK Gorica
22.04.26
H2H
Vukovar
HNK Gorica
1
2
L
15.02.26
H2H
HNK Gorica
Vukovar
0
0
D
07.11.25
H2H
HNK Gorica
Vukovar
1
1
D
22.08.25
H2H
Vukovar
HNK Gorica
2
2
D
Last matches: Vukovar
15.05.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Varazdin
0
2
L
02.05.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Osijek
1
0
W
13.04.26
HNL
Vukovar
Dinamo Zagreb
1
4
L
07.04.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1
1
D
21.03.26
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Hajduk Split
0
6
L
08.03.26
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
20.02.26
HNL
Vukovar
NK Slaven Belupo
2
2
D
07.02.26
HNL
Vukovar
Istra 1961
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Vukovar
Velež
1
2
L
10.01.26
Fri
Vukovar
Primorje
3
0
W
08.01.26
Fri
Vukovar
Aresimi
4
0
W
12.12.25
HNL
Vukovar
NK Varazdin
2
0
W
28.11.25
HNL
Vukovar
NK Osijek
2
2
D
27.10.25
HNL
Vukovar
Dinamo Zagreb
1
0
W
17.10.25
HNL
Vukovar
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1
1
D
04.10.25
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Hajduk Split
0
1
L
22.09.25
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Rijeka
3
2
W
30.08.25
HNL
Vukovar
NK Slaven Belupo
1
2
L
22.08.25
HNL
Vukovar
HNK Gorica
2
2
D
15.08.25
HNL
Vukovar
Istra 1961
1
1
D
H2H at home: Vukovar
22.04.26
H2H
Vukovar
HNK Gorica
1
2
L
22.08.25
H2H
Vukovar
HNK Gorica
2
2
D
Last matches: HNK Gorica
23.05.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
HNK Rijeka
0
2
L
10.05.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Slaven Belupo
0
1
L
12.04.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
HNK Hajduk Split
0
1
L
03.04.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
1
1
D
14.03.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Osijek
0
0
D
01.03.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb
2
4
L
21.02.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
2
0
W
06.02.26
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0
3
L
21.12.25
HNL
HNK Gorica
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
13.12.25
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Osijek
1
1
D
05.12.25
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Slaven Belupo
1
2
L
14.09.25
HNL
HNK Gorica
Dinamo Zagreb
2
1
W
29.08.25
HNL
HNK Gorica
Istra 1961
0
1
L
22.08.25
HNL
HNK Gorica
Vukovar
2
2
D
16.08.25
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
3
1
W
10.08.25
HNL
HNK Gorica
HNK Hajduk Split
0
2
L
04.08.25
HNL
HNK Gorica
NK Varazdin
1
1
D
H2H away: HNK Gorica
22.04.26
H2H
Vukovar
HNK Gorica
1
2
W
22.08.25
H2H
Vukovar
HNK Gorica
2
2
D

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 27 5 4 93:28 65 86
D W W W W
2 36 20 8 8 61:36 25 68
W D L W D
3 36 15 9 12 47:46 1 54
W W D L L
4 36 14 11 11 49:36 13 53
W D W W D
5 36 10 14 12 40:52 -12 44
D D D L D
6 36 12 7 17 39:50 -11 43
L D W W L
7 36 10 11 15 46:61 -15 41
L L W L D
8 36 11 8 17 40:48 -8 41
L W L L W
9 36 8 11 17 27:49 -22 35
W L L L D
10 36 6 10 20 37:73 -36 28
L L L W D
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation