BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Vitória ES
Match Timeline
Rio Branco ES
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
Abuda
Vitória ES
14'
Matheus Castelo
Rio Branco ES
🟥
79'
Vitória ES
Vitória ES
90'
Victor Braga
Rio Branco ES

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
54.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Vitória ES Win 12.6%
Draw 28.3%
Rio Branco ES Win 59.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitória ES1.7
Rio Branco ES1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitória ES Vitória ES
WWDLW
3 GF / 2 GA
Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES
WLDWL
3 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1
Average Goals Conceded
2
1
BTTS Yes
2
1
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitória ES Vitória ES 2 matches
Rio Branco ES Rio Branco ES 2 matches
Vitória ES Statistic Rio Branco ES
1 Wins 0
0 Draws 1
1 Losses 1
3 Goals For 3
2 Goals Against 4
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1 Avg Goals Conceded 2
1 BTTS Yes 2
1 Over 1.5 2
1 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Vitória ES's more proactive style and Rio Branco ES's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Vitória ES arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 3 points compared to Rio Branco ES in 5 on 1, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Rio Branco ES having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rio Branco ES. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Vitória ES Analysis

Placed 3 with 3 points from 2 outings, Vitória ES continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 3:2 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Rio Branco ES Analysis

Placed 5 with 1 points from 2 outings, Rio Branco ES continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, while the 3:4 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Breninho (2 goals), Edu (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitória ES won 3 times, Rio Branco ES won 5 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:17 from Vitória ES's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (87.4%)
H2H summary: Vitória ES wins 3, draws 7, Rio Branco ES wins 5
Last matches: Vitória ES
27.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
2
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
L
Last matches: Rio Branco ES
27.06.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Uberlandia
2
2
D
21.06.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Uberlandia
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Porto BA
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Democrata GV
1
3
L
24.05.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
0
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Real Noroeste
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Tombense
2
2
D
03.05.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Tombense
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Real Noroeste
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Democrata GV
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Porto BA
2
3
L
23.08.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
16.08.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Inter De Limeira
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Luverdense
3
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Luverdense
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Boavista SC
2
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Porto Vitória
1
0
W
05.07.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Portuguesa
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Água Santa
3
2
W
H2H: Vitória ES vs Rio Branco ES
24.05.26
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
0
2
W
13.05.26
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
2
2
D
18.04.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
22.01.26
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
0
1
W
21.05.25
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
2
2
D
09.02.25
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
1
1
D
22.01.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
07.08.24
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
1
2
W
13.07.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
08.06.24
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
0
0
D
18.02.24
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
1
0
L
26.02.23
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
0
1
L
19.02.22
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
1
1
D
24.04.21
H2H
Rio Branco ES
Vitória ES
2
2
D
15.12.20
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
Last matches: Vitória ES
20.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
L
H2H at home: Vitória ES
18.04.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
22.01.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
13.07.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.02.23
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
0
1
L
15.12.20
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
Last matches: Rio Branco ES
27.06.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Uberlandia
2
2
D
31.05.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Democrata GV
1
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Real Noroeste
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Tombense
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Porto BA
2
3
L
23.08.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Inter De Limeira
0
0
D
02.08.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Luverdense
0
0
D
19.07.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Boavista SC
2
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Porto Vitória
1
0
W
14.06.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Pouso Alegre
0
1
L
17.05.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Água Santa
2
1
W
10.05.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
Portuguesa
1
2
L
19.04.25
Ser
Rio Branco ES
CFRJ / Maricá
0
2
L
H2H away: Rio Branco ES
18.04.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
W
22.01.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
W
13.07.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.02.23
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
0
1
W
15.12.20
H2H
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
W