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SPAIN › LA LIGA
17.10.2026 14:15
Estadio de la Cerámica
Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
Villarreal
Match Timeline
Elche
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
28'
Marc Aguado ↔ Federico Redondo Solari
Elche
🟨
38'
Gonzalo Villar
Elche
VAR
63'
Roy Revivo
Elche
🔄
65'
Lucas Cepeda ↔ Tete Morente
Elche
🔄
65'
Thomas Lemar ↔ Martim Neto
Elche
🔄
65'
Abiel Alessio Osorio ↔ Fernando Niño Rodríguez
Elche
🔄
66'
Tani Oluwaseyi ↔ Georges Mikautadze
Villarreal
🔄
66'
Santi Comesaña ↔ Pape Gueye
Villarreal
🔄
66'
Carlos Macià ↔ Nathan-Dylan Saliba
Villarreal
🟨
71'
Tete Morente
Elche
🟨
75'
Roy Revivo
Elche
🔄
75'
Ilias Akhomach Chakkour ↔ Gerard Moreno
Villarreal
🟨
81'
Alex Freeman
Villarreal
🔄
83'
Buba Sangaré ↔ Ruben Sanchez Saez
Elche
🔄
84'
Ayoze Pérez ↔ Nizar El Jmili
Villarreal
🟨
90+1'
Víctor Chust
Elche
🟨
90+1'
Juan Foyth
Villarreal

Villarreal vs Elche Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Villarreal Win 62.9%
Draw 4.5%
Elche Win 32.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Villarreal1.73
Elche1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Villarreal Villarreal
W L W W L
10 GF / 6 GA
Elche Elche
D W L D L
8 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
10
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
9
6
Shots on Goal
4.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Villarreal Villarreal 14 matches
Elche Elche 13 matches
Villarreal Statistic Elche
6 Wins 3
2 Draws 6
6 Losses 4
24 Goals For 19
21 Goals Against 23
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
10 BTTS Yes 10
11 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 3
6 Shots On Goal 4.63
15.6 Total Shots 11.5
6.5 Corners 4.5
58.6% Ball Possession 52%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Villarreal's more proactive style and Elche's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Villarreal expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Elche in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Elche having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Elche. Villarreal arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 8 points compared to Elche in 18 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Villarreal Analysis

With 8 points from 7 games and a place of 9, Villarreal still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 13:12, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through P. Gueye (3 goals), Alberto Moleiro (2 goals), G. Mikautadze (2 goals), with creative support from Alberto Moleiro (3 assists), Ayoze Pérez (2 assists), Ilias Akhomach (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Elche Analysis

With 5 points from 7 games and a place of 18, Elche still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 11:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Fer Niño (5 goals), Germán Valera (1 goals), Buba Sangaré (1 goals), with creative support from Tete Morente (3 assists), R. Revivo (2 assists), L. Cepeda (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Villarreal won 6 times, Elche won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:12 from Villarreal's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Villarreal 4-2-3-1 / Elche 4-3-3
Missing players: Villarreal 2, Elche 0
H2H summary: Villarreal wins 6, draws 4, Elche wins 2

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 9 0 0 39:9 30 27
W W W W W
2 10 8 1 1 20:8 12 25
W W W W W
3 9 7 0 2 23:9 14 21
W W L W W
4 9 6 1 2 16:14 2 19
L W D W W
5 9 5 1 3 17:17 0 16
W W W L W
6 9 4 2 3 14:16 -2 14
L D L W W
7 10 3 3 4 14:11 3 12
D L L D L
8 10 3 3 4 15:14 1 12
W D L W W
9 9 2 5 2 10:7 3 11
W D W D D
10 10 2 5 3 13:13 0 11
L D L D L
11 9 3 2 4 10:18 -8 11
W L D L L
12 10 3 2 5 15:26 -11 11
W L D L L
13 9 2 4 3 15:17 -2 10
W D D L L
14
Elche Away
10 2 4 4 14:17 -3 10
W D D W L
15 8 2 3 3 8:9 -1 9
L D D D
16 9 2 3 4 5:11 -6 9
D L W L D
17 9 2 3 4 12:20 -8 9
L D D W
18 10 2 2 6 12:14 -2 8
L L D L L
19 10 1 3 6 7:17 -10 6
L D D L W
20 10 0 5 5 7:19 -12 5
D L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2