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BRAZIL › SERIE B
07.10.2026 23:30
Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: Maguielson Lima Barbosa, Brazil
Vila Nova
Match Timeline
Cuiaba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
57'
Higor
Vila Nova
🟨
59'
Janderson
Vila Nova
🟨
64'
Dudu Dos Santos
Vila Nova
🔄
64'
Everton Galdino ↔ Lincoln
Vila Nova
🟨
66'
Calebe Costa
Cuiaba
🔄
70'
Fabio Gomes ↔ H. Pedro
Cuiaba
🔄
75'
Janderson ↔ Ryan
Vila Nova
🔄
76'
Dudu ↔ Higor Meritao
Vila Nova
🔄
76'
Andre Luis ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🔄
76'
David Miguel ↔ Wesley Dias
Cuiaba
🔄
76'
Jean Dias ↔ Rodrigo Rodrigues
Cuiaba
🔄
83'
Kauan Cristtyan ↔ Eliel
Cuiaba
🟨
84'
Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🔄
89'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Dodo
Vila Nova

Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 56.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 57.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.2%
- ▥
BTTS No
56.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
57.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 62.2%
Draw 6.6%
Cuiaba Win 31.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.18
Cuiaba1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
44 GF / 31 GA
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WLDWL
32 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
12
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
8
4.29
Shots on Goal
4.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 31 matches
Cuiaba Cuiaba 31 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Cuiaba
17 Wins 11
6 Draws 13
8 Losses 7
44 Goals For 32
31 Goals Against 25
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
12 BTTS Yes 11
21 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 3
12 Clean Sheets 13
8 Failed To Score 12
4.29 Shots On Goal 4.23
13.55 Total Shots 13.42
4.87 Corners 5.23
51% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vila Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cuiaba in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cuiaba having the stronger overall control. Vila Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 57 points compared to Cuiaba in 10 on 46, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cuiaba. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Vila Nova come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 57 points after 31 outings. They have recorded 17 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, with a 44:31 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on André Luís (6 goals), Janderson (3 goals), João Vieira (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (7 assists), Janderson (6 assists), João Vieira (4 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, their record of 12 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Cuiaba Analysis

So far, Cuiaba have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 46 points from 31 matches. The record of 11 wins, 13 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 32:25 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Kauan (5 goals), João Basso (2 goals), Fábio Gomes (2 goals), with creative support from Pepê (3 assists), Eliel (3 assists), Kauan (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 4 times, Cuiaba won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:14 from Vila Nova's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.15 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 4, draws 4, Cuiaba wins 5

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
3 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
4 33 15 12 6 39:29 10 57
D W D D W
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
14 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
15 33 11 9 13 35:40 -5 42
L W W D W
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 33 4 5 24 21:54 -33 17
L L L L L
20 33 3 4 26 18:73 -55 13
L L L L W
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