BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio São Januário
Referee: S. Sampaio
Vasco DA Gama
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
Luciano
Sao Paulo
🔄
46'
Paulo Henrique ↔ J. Rodriguez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
46'
Tche Tche ↔ Adson
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
58'
Cédric Soares
Sao Paulo
🔄
58'
Lucca Marques ↔ P. dos Santos
Sao Paulo
🔄
62'
David ↔ Brenner
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
62'
J. Rojas ↔ C. Spinelli
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
63'
C. Soares ↔ Maik
Sao Paulo
🔄
63'
E. Diaz ↔ Wendell
Sao Paulo
VAR
69'
Claudio Spinelli
Vasco DA Gama
72'
J. Rodriguez
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
74'
Alan Franco
Sao Paulo
🔄
80'
Danielzinho ↔ Felipe Negrucci
Sao Paulo
🔄
80'
Luciano ↔ G. Tapia
Sao Paulo
🔄
81'
Cauan Barros ↔ Hugo Moura
Vasco DA Gama
88'
Andres Gomez · Assist: Brenner
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
90+7'
Léo Jardim
Vasco DA Gama

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 68.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
68.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 40.1%
Draw 9.4%
Sao Paulo Win 50.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.2
Sao Paulo1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
16 GF / 17 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
15 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
0.82
10
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
3
5.27
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 11 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 11 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic Sao Paulo
3 Wins 6
4 Draws 2
4 Losses 3
16 Goals For 15
17 Goals Against 9
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 0.82
10 BTTS Yes 5
10 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 3
5.27 Shots On Goal 3.82
17.18 Total Shots 11.27
5.45 Corners 5.91
52.3% Ball Possession 55.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Sao Paulo's more proactive style and Vasco DA Gama's more cautious structure. Sao Paulo seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Sao Paulo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sao Paulo. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sao Paulo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 20 points while Vasco DA Gama sit 13 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama are currently 13 in the standings with 13 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 16:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cauan Barros (3 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), David (2 goals), with creative support from Cuiabano (4 assists), J. Rodriguez (3 assists), Paulo Henrique (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Jair, Mateus Carvalho, A. Saldivia unavailable.

Sao Paulo Analysis

With 20 points from 11 games and a place of 3, Sao Paulo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 15:9, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jonathan Calleri (6 goals), Ferreira (3 goals), Luciano (2 goals), with creative support from Marcos Antonio (2 assists), Luciano (1 assists), Danielzinho (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Lucas Moura, Ryan Francisco, Paulinho, Lucas Ramon, R. Toloi unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 6 times, Sao Paulo won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:21 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1 / Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vasco DA Gama 4, Sao Paulo 7
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 6, draws 2, Sao Paulo wins 7
Stats
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 5
14 Fouls 20
0 Offsides 0
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 4
8 Shots off Goal 4
7 Blocked Shots 2
13 Shots insidebox 8
7 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
431 Total passes 264
368 Passes accurate 197
2.18 expected_goals 2.39
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama
Formation
Sao Paulo
Leo Jardim
Leo Jardim
Paulo Henrique
Paulo Henrique
C. Cuesta
C. Cuesta
Robert Renan
Robert Renan
Cuiabano
Cuiabano
Cauan Barros
Cauan Barros
Thiago Mendes
Thiago Mendes
Tche Tche
Tche Tche
J. Rojas
J. Rojas
Andres Gomez
Andres Gomez
David
David
Rafael
Rafael
C. Soares
C. Soares
A. Franco
A. Franco
Sabino
Sabino
E. Diaz
E. Diaz
Danielzinho
Danielzinho
D. Bobadilla
D. Bobadilla
Artur
Artur
Luciano
Luciano
Lucca Marques
Lucca Marques
Jonathan Calleri
Jonathan Calleri
Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Leo Jardim
🟨 90+7'
G
96
Paulo Henrique
↓ 46'
D
46
C. Cuesta
D
30
Robert Renan
D
66
Cuiabano
D
88
Cauan Barros
↓ 81'
M
23
Thiago Mendes
M
3
Tche Tche
↓ 46'
M
10
J. Rojas
↓ 62'
M
11
Andres Gomez
⚽ 88'
M
7
David
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
13
Daniel Fuzato
G
2
J. Rodriguez
⚽ 72' ↑ 46'
D
25
Hugo Moura
↑ 81'
M
6
Lucas Piton
D
28
Adson
↑ 46'
F
9
Matheus Franca
F
43
Lucas Freitas
D
17
N. Moreira
M
20
Brenner
🎯 88' ↑ 62'
F
77
C. Spinelli
↑ 62'
F
18
M. Hinestroza
F
98
JP
M
Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
Rafael
G
21
C. Soares
↓ 63' 🟨 58'
D
28
A. Franco
🟨 74'
D
35
Sabino
D
13
E. Diaz
↓ 63'
D
94
Danielzinho
↓ 80'
M
16
D. Bobadilla
M
37
Artur
M
10
Luciano
⚽ 10' ↓ 80'
M
45
Lucca Marques
↓ 58'
M
9
Jonathan Calleri
F
Substitutes
31
Carlos Coronel
G
4
Matheus Doria
D
80
Cauly
M
17
Andre Silva
F
33
Luan Silva
M
30
Felipe Negrucci
↑ 80'
M
40
Igor Felisberto
42
Maik
↑ 63'
D
54
Luis Osorio
D
34
P. dos Santos
↑ 58'
F
18
Wendell
↑ 63'
D
14
G. Tapia
↑ 80'
F
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
Last matches: Sao Paulo
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
W
H2H: Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo
18.04.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
02.11.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
13.06.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
3
W
17.10.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
L
23.06.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
4
1
W
07.10.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
0
0
D
20.05.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
4
2
L
05.08.21
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
29.07.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
2
0
L
22.11.20
H2H
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
16.08.20
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
28.11.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
L
25.08.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
22.11.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
05.08.18
H2H
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
L
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
H2H at home: Vasco DA Gama
18.04.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
02.11.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
23.06.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
4
1
W
07.10.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
0
0
D
05.08.21
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
16.08.20
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
25.08.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
22.11.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
Last matches: Sao Paulo
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
H2H away: Sao Paulo
18.04.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
L
02.11.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
0
2
W
23.06.24
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
4
1
L
07.10.23
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
0
0
D
05.08.21
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
1
2
W
16.08.20
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
L
25.08.19
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
0
L
22.11.18
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Vasco DA Gama 4 missing
-
Jair
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Mateus Carvalho
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Saldivia
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Cauan Barros
Questionable Injury
OUT
Sao Paulo 7 missing
-
Lucas Moura
Missing Fixture Broken rib
OUT
-
Ryan Francisco
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Pablo Maia
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Lucas Ramon
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
R. Toloi
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Marcos Antonio
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Djhordney
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT