BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio São Januário
Referee: R. Klein
Vasco DA Gama
Match Timeline
Mirassol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
30'
Igor Formiga · Assist: Reinaldo
Mirassol
🔄
36'
Jose Aldo ↔ Lucas Oliveira
Mirassol
🔄
46'
Gustavo Silva ↔ Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
60'
Adson ↔ David
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
60'
Tche Tche ↔ N. Moreira
Vasco DA Gama
🟨
66'
Walter
Mirassol
🔄
69'
Japa ↔ Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
69'
Edson Carioca ↔ Fernandinho
Mirassol
🔄
70'
Ramon Rique ↔ Jair
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
71'
Cuiabano ↔ Lucas Piton
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
74'
Cauan Barros ↔ J. Rojas
Vasco DA Gama
80'
A. Gomez
Vasco DA Gama
🔄
82'
Denilson ↔ Chico Kim
Mirassol
🟨
83'
N. Moreira
Vasco DA Gama

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.2%
Odds 2.04
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.06
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.2%
2.04
BTTS No
50.8%
1.95
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.06
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76.2%
1.19
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20
Correct Score 3-0
-
17.00
Probability Distribution
Vasco DA Gama Win 57.2%
Draw 15.1%
Mirassol Win 27.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vasco DA Gama1.18
Mirassol1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WWDLW
22 GF / 30 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
27 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
13
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
11
5.37
Shots on Goal
4.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 19 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 24 matches
Vasco DA Gama Statistic Mirassol
5 Wins 9
5 Draws 4
9 Losses 11
22 Goals For 27
30 Goals Against 29
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
13 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 8
5.37 Shots On Goal 4.29
17.47 Total Shots 13.04
5.16 Corners 5.29
54.2% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Vasco DA Gama have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mirassol.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama sit 17 with 20 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats with a 22:30 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Andrés Gómez (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol sit 19 with 16 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 18:24, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Igor Formiga (3 goals), Negueba (2 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), Igor Formiga (1 assists), Willian Machado (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Vasco DA Gama won 0 times, Mirassol won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:8 from Vasco DA Gama's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
Predicted formations: Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1 / Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Vasco DA Gama 1, Mirassol 1
H2H summary: Vasco DA Gama wins 0, draws 1, Mirassol wins 3
Stats
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol Mirassol
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
10
Blocked Shots
3
9 Corner Kicks 5
12 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 4
10 Blocked Shots 3
16 Shots insidebox 7
4 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
472 Total passes 349
380 Passes accurate 280
1.83 expected_goals 0.84
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Vasco DA Gama
Formation
Mirassol
Leo Jardim
Leo Jardim
J. Rodriguez
J. Rodriguez
C. Cuesta
C. Cuesta
Robert Renan
Robert Renan
Cuiabano
Cuiabano
Cauan Barros
Cauan Barros
Tche Tche
Tche Tche
Adson
Adson
Ramon Rique
Ramon Rique
A. Gomez
A. Gomez
C. Spinelli
C. Spinelli
Walter
Walter
Igor Formiga
Igor Formiga
Joao Victor
Joao Victor
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Reinaldo
🎯
Reinaldo
Denilson
Denilson
Jose Aldo
Jose Aldo
Japa
Japa
Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva
Bruno Santos
Bruno Santos
Edson Carioca
Edson Carioca
Vasco DA Gama 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Leo Jardim
G
2
J. Rodriguez
D
46
C. Cuesta
D
30
Robert Renan
D
66
Cuiabano
↓ 71'
D
88
Cauan Barros
↓ 74'
M
3
Tche Tche
↓ 60'
M
28
Adson
↓ 60'
M
83
Ramon Rique
↓ 70'
M
11
A. Gomez
⚽ 80'
M
77
C. Spinelli
F
Substitutes
13
Daniel Fuzato
G
6
Lucas Piton
↑ 71'
D
10
J. Rojas
↑ 74'
F
43
Lucas Freitas
D
8
Jair
↑ 70'
M
96
Paulo Henrique
D
7
David
↑ 60'
F
17
N. Moreira
↑ 60' 🟨 83'
M
18
M. Hinestroza
F
29
Paulinho
D
98
JP
M
60
Joao Vitor
Mirassol 4-3-3
Starting XI
22
Walter
🟨 66'
G
32
Igor Formiga
⚽ 30'
D
34
Joao Victor
D
44
Gabriel Knesowitsch
D
6
Reinaldo
🎯 30'
D
8
Denilson
↓ 82'
M
21
Jose Aldo
↓ 36'
M
5
Japa
↓ 69'
M
19
Gustavo Silva
↓ 46'
F
30
Bruno Santos
F
95
Edson Carioca
↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
90
Thomazella
G
33
Eduardo
↑ 69'
M
17
Fernandinho
↑ 69'
F
27
A. Galeano
F
12
Victor Luis
D
10
Chico Kim
↑ 82'
M
96
Carlos Eduardo
↑ 46'
2
Lucas Oliveira
↑ 36'
D
7
Shaylon
M
9
Andre Luis
F
18
Elias
D
3
Willian Machado
D
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
16.07.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Vitoria
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Internacional
1
4
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Flamengo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Remo
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Coritiba
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Cruzeiro
3
3
D
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
26.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Santos
1
2
L
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
2
L
Last matches: Mirassol
29.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
1
W
17.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Gremio
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Bahia
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Coritiba
0
1
L
H2H: Vasco DA Gama vs Mirassol
25.07.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
1
D
29.01.26
H2H
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
L
02.12.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
0
2
L
02.08.25
H2H
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
3
2
L
Last matches: Vasco DA Gama
31.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
RB Bragantino
0
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Botafogo
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
2
1
W
19.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense
3
2
W
12.03.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Palmeiras
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Bahia
0
1
L
05.02.26
Ser
Vasco DA Gama
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
H2H at home: Vasco DA Gama
25.07.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
1
D
02.12.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
0
2
L
Last matches: Mirassol
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Palmeiras
0
1
L
04.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
2
D
H2H away: Mirassol
25.07.26
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
1
1
D
02.12.25
H2H
Vasco DA Gama
Mirassol
0
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 3.42
Home 2.04
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.42
Draw 2.21
Home 2.66
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.54
Over 2.25 1.81
Over 2.5 2.06
Over 2.75 2.37
Over 3.0 2.85
Over 3.5 3.63
Over 4.5 6.85
Under 1.5 3.31
Under 1.75 2.93
Under 2.0 2.52
Under 2.25 2.04
Under 2.5 1.78
Under 2.75 1.60
Under 3.0 1.41
Under 3.5 1.29
Under 4.5 1.10
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 3.25
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.10
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.40
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 9.50
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.78
Draw 3.46
Home 2.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.30
Draw 2.05
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.82
Draw 2.39
Home 2.35
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.00
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.15
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.81
Over 2.5 2.07
Over 2.75 2.26
Over 3.0 2.81
Over 3.25 3.12
Over 3.5 3.44
Over 3.75 4.34
Over 4.0 6.15
Over 4.25 6.60
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 13.50
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 0.75 8.25
Under 1.0 7.50
Under 1.25 4.26
Under 1.5 3.12
Under 1.75 2.78
Under 2.0 2.38
Under 2.25 2.04
Under 2.5 1.79
Under 2.75 1.54
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 3.75 1.14
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.35
Home 2.08
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.95
Draw 2.12
Home 2.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.50
Home 2.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 1.75 1.40
Over 2.0 1.52
Over 2.25 1.78
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.35
Over 3.0 2.95
Over 3.25 3.30
Over 3.5 3.70
Over 4.5 7.50
Under 0.5 9.50
Under 1.5 3.30
Under 1.75 2.90
Under 2.0 2.50
Under 2.25 2.02
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.40
Under 3.25 1.33
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 4.5 1.07

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 5 2 38:16 22 47
W L W W W
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 20 11 3 6 28:19 9 36
W W W W D
4 21 9 7 5 30:25 5 34
D D D D L
5 21 8 8 5 29:25 4 32
D D D W W
6 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
7 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
8 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
9 20 7 7 6 22:20 2 28
D W W W L
10 20 7 6 7 25:27 -2 27
D L L W W
11 20 7 6 7 26:30 -4 27
L W D W D
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 21 7 5 9 22:31 -9 26
L L D W L
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
?
LIBC CL group stage
LIBC Play-offs
Copa Sudamericana Group Stage
Relegation

Missing Players

Vasco DA Gama 1 missing
-
Mateus Carvalho
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Mirassol 1 missing
-
Negueba
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT