ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
05.09.2026 14:00
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: J. Jakobson
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Nõmme United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
I. Krasnov ↔ O. Dacosta
Nõmme United
51'
T. Pajo
Vaprus
🟨
59'
K. Matas
Nõmme United
🟨
64'
M. Villota
Vaprus
🔄
68'
A. Alteberg ↔ H. Jarvelaid
Nõmme United
🔄
68'
K. Oostenbrink ↔ N. Vassiljev
Nõmme United
🔄
74'
S. Viidas ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🟨
78'
K. Aloe
Vaprus
🔄
81'
S. Kapper ↔ J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
81'
M. Villota ↔ R. Orm
Vaprus
🟨
82'
M. Limberg
Vaprus
🔄
87'
T. Pajo ↔ U. Nomm
Vaprus
🔄
90'
B. Chisala ↔ K. Laanelaid
Nõmme United
🟨
90+3'
J. Poder
Vaprus
🟨
90+4'
H. Jarvelaid
Nõmme United

Vaprus vs Nõmme United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 62.2%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.47
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
62.2%
1.36
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.47
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.07
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 39%
Draw 23.1%
Nõmme United Win 37.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus2.03
Nõmme United1.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
52 GF / 58 GA
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WLDWL
62 GF / 79 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.94
1.93
Average Goals Conceded
2.47
20
BTTS Yes
26
21
Over 2.5
30
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 30 matches
Nõmme United Nõmme United 32 matches
Vaprus Statistic Nõmme United
10 Wins 12
5 Draws 2
15 Losses 18
52 Goals For 62
58 Goals Against 79
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.94
1.93 Avg Goals Conceded 2.47
20 BTTS Yes 26
26 Over 1.5 31
21 Over 2.5 30
14 Over 3.5 20
6 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nõmme United having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Nõmme United. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Vaprus Analysis

With 27 points from 23 games and a place of 7, Vaprus still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 12 defeats with a 31:44 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nõmme United Analysis

With 25 points from 24 games and a place of 8, Nõmme United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 1 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 41:58 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 7 times, Nõmme United won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:16 from Vaprus's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.91 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.9%)
Predicted formations: Vaprus 3-4-1-2 / Nõmme United 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 7, draws 1, Nõmme United wins 3

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4 27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga