24.09.2026 02:00
Willoughby Community Park Stadium

Vancouver FC vs York United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
74.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vancouver FC Win 80%
Draw 4.9%
York United Win 15.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vancouver FC1.58
York United1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vancouver FC Vancouver FC
WWDLW
31 GF / 37 GA
York United York United
WLDWL
31 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
2.09
12
BTTS Yes
17
12
Over 2.5
13
1.76
Shots on Goal
2.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vancouver FC Vancouver FC 25 matches
York United York United 22 matches
Vancouver FC Statistic York United
9 Wins 6
4 Draws 8
12 Losses 8
31 Goals For 31
37 Goals Against 46
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 2.09
12 BTTS Yes 17
17 Over 1.5 19
12 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 12
3 Clean Sheets 3
10 Failed To Score 2
1.76 Shots On Goal 2.38
5.96 Total Shots 5.9
2.52 Corners 1.71
21.2% Ball Possession 22.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Vancouver FC's more proactive style and York United's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Vancouver FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring York United. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vancouver FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and York United in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward York United having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Vancouver FC Analysis

Vancouver FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 30 points from 22 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 3 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 30:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Bah (2 goals), L. Mousset (1 goals), with creative support from Thomas Geoffrey Field (1 assists), L. Toomey (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

York United Analysis

From their first 20 matches, York United have collected 23 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, while the 29:42 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on L. Accettola (2 goals), T. Skublak (1 goals), L. Singh (1 goals), with creative support from T. Skublak (1 assists), O. León (1 assists), S. Yeates (1 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vancouver FC won 3 times, York United won 10 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:24 from Vancouver FC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Vancouver FC 4-2-3-1 / York United 3-4-3
H2H summary: Vancouver FC wins 3, draws 2, York United wins 10

Standings

Canadian Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 15 5 2 42:13 29 50
D W W W W
2 22 14 4 4 34:16 18 46
D W D L W
3 22 10 4 8 34:37 -3 34
L D W L W
4 23 9 4 10 31:29 2 31
D L W L L
5 22 6 5 11 31:37 -6 23
W L L W L
6 20 5 8 7 29:42 -13 23
W D D L D
7 21 6 4 11 29:38 -9 22
L L W D L
8 22 1 8 13 26:44 -18 11
D L D D W