MEXICO LIGA MX
21.09.2026 02:00
Estadio La Corregidora

Club Queretaro vs Leon Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 73.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
73.6%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Club Queretaro Win 52.1%
Draw 21.4%
Leon Win 26.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Club Queretaro1.52
Leon1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Club Queretaro Club Queretaro
WWDLW
15 GF / 9 GA
Leon Leon
WLDWL
21 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.91
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
5
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
6
4
Shots on Goal
5.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Club Queretaro Club Queretaro 10 matches
Leon Leon 11 matches
Club Queretaro Statistic Leon
6 Wins 5
2 Draws 2
2 Losses 4
15 Goals For 21
9 Goals Against 17
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.91
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
5 BTTS Yes 7
6 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 2
4 Shots On Goal 5.29
12.71 Total Shots 13.86
4 Corners 4.29
40.4% Ball Possession 49%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Club Queretaro's more proactive style and Leon's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Club Queretaro expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Leon in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leon having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Leon.

Club Queretaro Analysis

Club Queretaro come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 13 points after 7 matches. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 10:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through S. Homenchenko (2 goals), A. Ávila (2 goals), Carlo Adriano (1 goals), with creative support from S. Homenchenko (1 assists), B. Duarte (1 assists), A. Alcalá (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Leon Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Leon have collected 10 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 9:9 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Arcila (2 goals), J. Alvarado (1 goals), J. Cortizo (1 goals), with creative support from J. Alvarado (1 assists), Luis Valadez (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Club Queretaro won 2 times, Leon won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:33 from Club Queretaro's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.6%)
Predicted formations: Club Queretaro 4-2-3-1 / Leon 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Club Queretaro wins 2, draws 3, Leon wins 10

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 17:6 11 16
W W W D W
2 7 5 1 1 15:6 9 16
L W W W W
3 8 5 0 3 16:14 2 15
W W W L L
4 7 4 2 1 12:6 6 14
W D W W D
5 7 4 1 2 10:7 3 13
W W L D W
6 7 4 1 2 10:8 2 13
L W L W D
7 7 4 1 2 10:9 1 13
W L W W D
8 8 4 1 3 12:14 -2 13
L D L W W
9 8 3 2 3 13:8 5 11
W W D D L
10 7 3 2 2 11:9 2 11
W L D D W
11 7 3 1 3 13:10 3 10
D L L W W
12
Leon Away
7 3 1 3 9:9 0 10
L D W W W
13 8 2 2 4 9:13 -4 8
L D L D L
14 8 1 4 3 9:11 -2 7
D D D W L
15 8 1 4 3 7:12 -5 7
L D D L D
16 7 1 3 3 8:13 -5 6
L W D L D
17 7 0 1 6 4:12 -8 1
L D L L L
18 7 0 0 7 3:21 -18 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)