ICELAND ÚRVALSDEILD
13.09.2026 16:00

Valur Reykjavik vs Thor Akureyri Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 76.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
76.3%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Valur Reykjavik Win 53.6%
Draw 22.7%
Thor Akureyri Win 23.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valur Reykjavik1.88
Thor Akureyri1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valur Reykjavik Valur Reykjavik
WWDLW
42 GF / 54 GA
Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri
WLDWL
25 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.09
2.08
Average Goals Conceded
2.26
17
BTTS Yes
12
18
Over 2.5
13
0.8
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valur Reykjavik Valur Reykjavik 26 matches
Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri 23 matches
Valur Reykjavik Statistic Thor Akureyri
9 Wins 7
4 Draws 3
13 Losses 13
42 Goals For 25
54 Goals Against 52
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
2.08 Avg Goals Conceded 2.26
17 BTTS Yes 12
22 Over 1.5 16
18 Over 2.5 13
14 Over 3.5 10
3 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 7
0.8 Shots On Goal 0
2.6 Total Shots 0
1 Corners 0
13.8% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Thor Akureyri arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valur Reykjavik expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Thor Akureyri in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Thor Akureyri having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Thor Akureyri.

Valur Reykjavik Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Valur Reykjavik have collected 27 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 39:45 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Thor Akureyri Analysis

With 21 points from 22 games and a place of 10, Thor Akureyri still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 22:50 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.3%)
Predicted formations: Valur Reykjavik 4-3-3 / Thor Akureyri 4-1-4-1

Standings

Úrvalsdeild
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 16 5 1 67:21 46 53
D D W W D
2 22 13 6 3 56:42 14 45
D D W W L
3 22 13 5 4 74:49 25 44
L D W D W
4 22 8 6 8 43:41 2 30
L L L D L
5 22 8 6 8 39:41 -2 30
W D D W W
6 22 8 4 10 33:38 -5 28
L L W W L
7 22 8 4 10 42:50 -8 28
D W W L W
8 22 8 3 11 39:45 -6 27
W D L D W
9 22 4 9 9 27:39 -12 21
L W D L W
10 22 6 3 13 22:50 -28 21
W W L L L
11 22 5 5 12 35:48 -13 20
W D L D L
12 22 4 6 12 32:45 -13 18
D L L L D
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs