NORWAY ELITESERIEN
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Intility Arena
Referee: M. Stofringshaug

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.6%
Odds 1.59
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.46
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.6%
1.59
BTTS Yes
86%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.46
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.09
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.38
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Valerenga Win 61.6%
Draw 9.2%
Ham-Kam Win 29.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valerenga1.78
Ham-Kam1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valerenga Valerenga
WWDLW
46 GF / 38 GA
Ham-Kam Ham-Kam
WLDWL
36 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.92
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
14
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
15
5.64
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valerenga Valerenga 24 matches
Ham-Kam Ham-Kam 23 matches
Valerenga Statistic Ham-Kam
12 Wins 9
4 Draws 5
8 Losses 9
46 Goals For 36
38 Goals Against 36
1.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
14 BTTS Yes 14
19 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 15
12 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 3
5.64 Shots On Goal 4.08
16 Total Shots 10.54
7.14 Corners 4.15
49.2% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valerenga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Ham-Kam in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ham-Kam having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Ham-Kam. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga are currently 9 in the standings with 17 points from 13 matches. The record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 19:22 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Lucas Haren (5 goals), Filip Thorvaldsen (3 goals), Mathias Grundetjern (2 goals), with creative support from Henrik Bjørdal (5 assists), Mathias Grundetjern (3 assists), Kolbeinn Finnsson (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ham-Kam Analysis

Ham-Kam sit 8 with 18 points after 13 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 20:25 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Mame Alassane Niang (5 goals), Henrik Udahl (4 goals), Aksel Baran Potur (3 goals), with creative support from Patrick Metcalfe (3 assists), Martin Gjone (2 assists), Viðar Ari Jónsson (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Valerenga won 2 times, Ham-Kam won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:11 from Valerenga's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.56 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.8%)
Predicted formations: Valerenga 4-4-2 / Ham-Kam 5-3-2
Missing players: Valerenga 5, Ham-Kam 1
H2H summary: Valerenga wins 2, draws 4, Ham-Kam wins 3
Last matches: Valerenga
26.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Brann
3
2
W
16.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Aalesund
6
1
W
11.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Tromso
0
4
L
04.07.26
Fri
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
Gais
1
2
L
18.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
3
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Start
0
2
L
16.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
2
W
08.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
1
L
03.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
26.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Molde
1
5
L
19.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Lillestrom
0
2
L
12.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
06.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Viking
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
3
3
D
22.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Rosenborg
2
0
W
15.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sandefjord
1
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
Stromsgodset
4
3
W
27.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Rosenborg
1
0
W
Last matches: Ham-Kam
26.07.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
1
L
22.07.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Bodo/Glimt
0
3
L
18.07.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Tromso
1
4
L
12.07.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Sandefjord
2
2
D
27.06.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
IFK Goteborg
2
1
W
20.06.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Aalesund
2
2
D
25.05.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Lillestrom
2
0
W
16.05.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Fredrikstad
1
2
L
08.05.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
1
0
W
03.05.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Kristiansund BK
1
1
D
26.04.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Start
2
1
W
19.04.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
KFUM Oslo
4
0
W
12.04.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Molde
1
4
L
06.04.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Brann
1
5
L
26.03.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
2
D
14.03.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Viking
2
1
W
01.03.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Lyn
4
0
W
25.02.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Haugesund
2
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Kristiansund BK
1
2
L
H2H: Valerenga vs Ham-Kam
08.05.26
H2H
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
1
0
L
19.10.25
H2H
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
2
1
L
16.05.25
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
1
1
D
08.05.24
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
2
2
D
26.11.23
H2H
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
0
2
W
16.05.23
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
3
0
W
14.08.22
H2H
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
1
1
D
16.05.22
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
1
1
D
18.03.22
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
1
3
L
Last matches: Valerenga
16.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Aalesund
6
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
Gais
1
2
L
29.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
3
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
2
W
03.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
19.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Lillestrom
0
2
L
06.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Viking
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
3
3
D
15.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sandefjord
1
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
Stromsgodset
4
3
W
21.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
1
0
W
06.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Sandefjord
5
2
W
30.01.26
Fri
Valerenga
Orgryte IS
4
0
W
H2H at home: Valerenga
16.05.25
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
1
1
D
08.05.24
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
2
2
D
16.05.23
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
3
0
W
16.05.22
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
1
1
D
18.03.22
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
1
3
L
Last matches: Ham-Kam
26.07.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0
1
L
22.07.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Bodo/Glimt
0
3
L
12.07.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Sandefjord
2
2
D
27.06.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
IFK Goteborg
2
1
W
20.06.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Aalesund
2
2
D
16.05.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Fredrikstad
1
2
L
03.05.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Kristiansund BK
1
1
D
12.04.26
Eli
Ham-Kam
Molde
1
4
L
26.03.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
2
D
25.02.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Haugesund
2
0
W
18.02.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Kristiansund BK
1
2
L
13.02.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
3
L
30.01.26
Fri
Ham-Kam
Lillestrom
0
1
L
H2H away: Ham-Kam
16.05.25
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
1
1
D
08.05.24
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
2
2
D
16.05.23
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
3
0
L
16.05.22
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
1
1
D
18.03.22
H2H
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
1
3
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.29
Draw 4.45
Home 1.59
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.16
Draw 2.77
Home 2.04
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 2.5 1.46
Over 2.75 1.56
Over 3.0 1.70
Over 3.25 1.94
Over 3.5 2.15
Over 3.75 2.47
Over 4.5 3.65
Over 5.5 6.76
Under 1.5 6.11
Under 2.5 2.77
Under 2.75 2.49
Under 3.0 2.20
Under 3.25 1.93
Under 3.5 1.73
Under 3.75 1.57
Under 4.5 1.30
Under 5.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 4.20
Home 1.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.60
Home 2.05
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.88
Home 1.83
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.12
Over 2.5 1.44
Over 3.5 2.10
Over 4.5 3.50
Over 5.5 6.50
Over 6.5 13.00
Over 7.5 26.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 19.00
Under 1.5 6.00
Under 2.5 2.70
Under 3.5 1.67
Under 4.5 1.28
Under 5.5 1.11
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.16
Draw 4.40
Home 1.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.95
Draw 2.44
Home 2.03
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.55
Draw 3.00
Home 1.81
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.05
Over 1.5 1.08
Over 1.75 1.10
Over 2.0 1.13
Over 2.25 1.26
Over 2.5 1.40
Over 2.75 1.51
Over 3.0 1.64
Over 3.25 1.93
Over 3.5 2.14
Over 3.75 2.36
Over 4.0 2.81
Over 4.25 3.10
Over 4.5 3.38
Over 4.75 4.14
Over 5.0 5.50
Over 5.25 5.85
Over 5.5 6.20
Over 6.5 13.00
Over 7.5 26.00
Over 8.5 50.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.0 11.00
Under 1.25 6.76
Under 1.5 5.55
Under 1.75 5.09
Under 2.0 4.60
Under 2.25 3.20
Under 2.5 2.57
Under 2.75 2.34
Under 3.0 2.08
Under 3.25 1.89
Under 3.5 1.72
Under 3.75 1.50
Under 4.0 1.36
Under 4.25 1.28
Under 4.5 1.24
Under 4.75 1.16
Under 5.0 1.08
Under 5.25 1.07
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.04
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 4.35
Home 1.55
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.90
Draw 2.60
Home 1.97
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.40
Draw 2.95
Home 1.85
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.13
Over 2.0 1.18
Over 2.25 1.32
Over 2.5 1.46
Over 2.75 1.57
Over 3.0 1.73
Over 3.25 1.96
Over 3.5 2.18
Over 3.75 2.50
Over 4.0 3.10
Over 4.25 3.40
Over 4.5 3.65
Over 4.75 4.40
Over 5.0 5.60
Under 1.5 4.90
Under 2.0 4.10
Under 2.25 3.00
Under 2.5 2.45
Under 2.75 2.20
Under 3.0 1.95
Under 3.25 1.72
Under 3.5 1.58
Under 3.75 1.44
Under 4.0 1.30
Under 4.25 1.26
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 4.75 1.16
Under 5.0 1.10

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 11 2 2 37:11 26 35
W W W W D
2 14 11 1 2 34:14 20 34
D W W L W
3 15 9 4 2 26:15 11 31
W W D D L
4 14 8 1 5 22:14 8 25
L W W L L
5 14 7 2 5 25:19 6 23
W L D W L
6 14 6 3 5 15:16 -1 21
W D W W W
7 14 6 2 6 22:24 -2 20
W W L W L
8 15 6 1 8 30:25 5 19
L W W L L
9 14 5 3 6 19:18 1 18
W W W D L
10 14 5 3 6 20:26 -6 18
L L L D D
11 14 4 3 7 13:20 -7 15
L L D L D
12 14 4 2 8 15:27 -12 14
L L L W D
13 14 2 7 5 19:29 -10 13
D L D D D
14 14 3 3 8 15:25 -10 12
L L L D W
15 14 3 3 8 12:23 -11 12
L D L L L
16 15 2 4 9 16:34 -18 10
W L L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen

Missing Players

Valerenga 5 missing
-
M. Sjoeng
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
K. Finnsson
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
I. Nasberg
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
O. T. Holm
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
O. Saeter
Questionable Injury
OUT
Ham-Kam 1 missing
-
N. Alexandersson
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT