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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
21.10.2026 10:00
Peace Stadium connected by SoftBank

V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.6%
Odds 1.47
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.62
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.6%
1.47 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.75 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.62 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
2.50 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
15.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
V-varen Nagasaki Win 30.3%
Draw 12.1%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win 57.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
V-varen Nagasaki0.9
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WWDLW
11 GF / 18 GA
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WLDWL
25 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
2.5
1.8
Average Goals Conceded
0.6
6
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
6
3.7
Shots on Goal
7.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 10 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 10 matches
V-varen Nagasaki Statistic Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2 Wins 7
3 Draws 2
5 Losses 1
11 Goals For 25
18 Goals Against 6
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 2.5
1.8 Avg Goals Conceded 0.6
6 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 1
3.7 Shots On Goal 7.5
11.8 Total Shots 20.6
4.3 Corners 7.2
45.6% Ball Possession 60.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Sanfrecce Hiroshima's more proactive style and V-varen Nagasaki's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Sanfrecce Hiroshima look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Sanfrecce Hiroshima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 20 points while V-varen Nagasaki sit 14 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

With 9 points from 9 games and a place of 14, V-varen Nagasaki still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 11:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Thiago Santana (3 goals), Matheus Jesus (3 goals), K. Yasuda (2 goals), with creative support from H. Yamaguchi (2 assists), M. Hasegawa (1 assists), H. Onaga (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis

Sanfrecce Hiroshima approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 20 points after 9 outings. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 22:6, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Suzuki (7 goals), S. Haller (3 goals), S. Ayukawa (3 goals), with creative support from A. Suzuki (3 assists), S. Higashi (2 assists), M. Kato (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, V-varen Nagasaki won 0 times, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:9 from V-varen Nagasaki's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1 / Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: V-varen Nagasaki wins 0, draws 0, Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 4

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 25:10 15 23
W W L D W
3 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
4 10 7 1 2 17:9 8 22
W L W W W
5 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
6 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 10 4 1 5 12:15 -3 13
L L L W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 10 2 1 7 11:16 -5 7
L W L L D
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League