JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
12.09.2026 10:00
Peace Stadium

V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.2%
Odds 3.26
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.2%
3.26
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.68
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.27
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
V-varen Nagasaki Win 75.2%
Draw 9%
Nagoya Grampus Win 15.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
V-varen Nagasaki1.43
Nagoya Grampus1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WWDLW
7 GF / 14 GA
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WLDWL
7 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.17
2.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.83
4
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
5
3.33
Shots on Goal
4.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 6 matches
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 6 matches
V-varen Nagasaki Statistic Nagoya Grampus
1 Wins 2
1 Draws 0
4 Losses 4
7 Goals For 7
14 Goals Against 11
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
2.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.83
4 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 5
5 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 2
3.33 Shots On Goal 4.17
9.83 Total Shots 13.83
3.83 Corners 5.67
45% Ball Possession 59.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nagoya Grampus. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

With 4 points from 5 games and a place of 17, V-varen Nagasaki still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:11 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Thiago Santana (2 goals), Matheus Jesus (1 goals), K. Yasuda (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Iwasaki (1 assists), H. Yamaguchi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Nagoya Grampus sit 13 with 6 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 6:8, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Y. Asano (1 goals), Y. Kimura (1 goals), M. Ono (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Asano (1 assists), R. Izumi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, V-varen Nagasaki won 3 times, Nagoya Grampus won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:9 from V-varen Nagasaki's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91%)
Predicted formations: V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1 / Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: V-varen Nagasaki wins 3, draws 1, Nagoya Grampus wins 2

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 18:5 13 16
W W D W W
2 7 5 1 1 11:5 6 16
W W W W L
3 7 5 0 2 13:10 3 15
W L L W W
4 7 4 0 3 14:13 1 12
L L L W W
5 6 3 2 1 13:5 8 11
L W D D W
6 6 3 2 1 11:8 3 11
W D W W D
7 6 3 1 2 10:8 2 10
W D L W W
8 6 3 1 2 8:7 1 10
W W L D W
9 6 3 1 2 5:5 0 10
D W L W L
10 6 2 3 1 12:9 3 9
W L W D D
11 6 2 3 1 11:8 3 9
D W D W D
12 6 3 0 3 12:15 -3 9
W W W L L
13 6 1 3 2 8:11 -3 6
L D D L D
14 6 2 0 4 7:11 -4 6
L L W W L
15 7 1 2 4 9:14 -5 5
L L D W L
16 6 1 1 4 9:10 -1 4
D L L L W
17 6 1 1 4 3:7 -4 4
L D L L L
18 6 1 1 4 7:14 -7 4
L D L L L
19 6 0 3 3 2:8 -6 3
D L L D L
20 6 1 0 5 5:15 -10 3
W L L L L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League