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23.10.2026 00:30
Estádio do Maracanã

Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 72.8%
Draw 4.9%
Estudiantes L.P. Win 22.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.43
Estudiantes L.P.1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
85 GF / 35 GA
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WLDWL
56 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.27
0.8
Average Goals Conceded
0.68
23
BTTS Yes
14
24
Over 2.5
15
5.6
Shots on Goal
5.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 44 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 44 matches
Flamengo Statistic Estudiantes L.P.
28 Wins 20
12 Draws 12
4 Losses 12
85 Goals For 56
35 Goals Against 30
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
0.8 Avg Goals Conceded 0.68
23 BTTS Yes 14
39 Over 1.5 26
24 Over 2.5 15
9 Over 3.5 5
19 Clean Sheets 19
3 Failed To Score 16
5.6 Shots On Goal 5.18
15.43 Total Shots 14.4
5 Corners 4.4
56.2% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 0-0, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. In the previous meeting, Flamengo had more of the ball in the first leg (55% possession compared to 45%). Estudiantes L.P. carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 6 shots on goal compared to 0. Flamengo also attempted more passes (458 to 367) and completed 361. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 16 points compared to Estudiantes L.P. in 2 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Estudiantes L.P.. Flamengo come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo enter this tie with a season profile built on 16 points from 6 matches, placing them 1 in their league. With 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses plus a goal ratio of 14:2, they bring very strong form with results showing strong momentum into this tie. Going forward they rely on Bruno Henrique (5 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (3 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), with creative support from Bruno Henrique (2 assists), Ayrton Lucas (2 assists), G. de Arrascaeta (1 assists), while defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Estudiantes L.P. enter this tie with a season profile built on 9 points from 6 matches, placing them 2 in their league. The return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 6:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by T. Palacios (3 goals), A. Castro (2 goals), Mikel Amondarain (1 goals), with creative support from Mikel Amondarain (2 assists), A. Castro (1 assists), T. Palacios (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Estudiantes L.P. 4-2-3-1

Standings

Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 14:2 12 16
W W D W W
2 6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
W L D D W
3 6 2 1 3 6:11 -5 7
L W W L D
4 6 0 1 5 4:12 -8 1
L L D L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals