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25.10.2026 18:15
Stade Joseph Marien

Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 76.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
76.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Union St. Gilloise Win 76.2%
Draw 4.6%
Cercle Brugge Win 19.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union St. Gilloise2.6
Cercle Brugge1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise
WWDLW
53 GF / 20 GA
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge
WLDWL
14 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
2.94
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
2.08
9
BTTS Yes
8
14
Over 2.5
8
7.33
Shots on Goal
4.25

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise 18 matches
Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 12 matches
Union St. Gilloise Statistic Cercle Brugge
12 Wins 0
4 Draws 5
2 Losses 7
53 Goals For 14
20 Goals Against 25
2.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 2.08
9 BTTS Yes 8
17 Over 1.5 10
14 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 4
7.33 Shots On Goal 4.25
17.83 Total Shots 14.38
4.83 Corners 7.5
48.9% Ball Possession 43.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Union St. Gilloise's more proactive style and Cercle Brugge's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Union St. Gilloise expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Cercle Brugge in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cercle Brugge having the stronger overall control. Union St. Gilloise come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Cercle Brugge. Union St. Gilloise arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 20 points compared to Cercle Brugge in 18 on 3, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Union St. Gilloise Analysis

Union St. Gilloise approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 20 points after 8 outings. They have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a 22:4 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Raul Florucz (4 goals), Relebohile Mofokeng (3 goals), Besfort Zeneli (2 goals), with creative support from Besfort Zeneli (4 assists), Mateo Biondic (4 assists), R. Schoofs (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Cercle Brugge Analysis

With 3 points from 8 games and a place of 18, Cercle Brugge still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 9:16 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Steve Ngoura (2 goals), Dante Vanzeir (1 goals), Lukas Mondele (1 goals), with creative support from Dante Vanzeir (1 assists), Erick (1 assists), Luke Le Roux (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Union St. Gilloise won 7 times, Cercle Brugge won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:18 from Union St. Gilloise's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Union St. Gilloise 3-1-4-2 / Cercle Brugge 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Union St. Gilloise wins 7, draws 5, Cercle Brugge wins 3

Standings

Pro League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 1 0 15:4 11 22
W W D W W
2 8 7 0 1 19:4 15 21
W W W W L
3 8 7 0 1 16:7 9 21
W W W L W
4 8 6 2 0 22:4 18 20
D W W W W
5 8 5 1 2 9:6 3 16
W W W D W
6 8 4 1 3 20:17 3 13
W W W W D
7 8 3 3 2 16:12 4 12
W L D D W
8 8 3 2 3 10:9 1 11
L L L W D
9 8 3 2 3 13:13 0 11
L L L W W
10 8 3 2 3 9:9 0 11
W D L L W
11 8 3 0 5 8:14 -6 9
L L W W L
12 8 2 2 4 15:16 -1 8
L L L W L
13 8 2 1 5 12:20 -8 7
L L L L L
14 8 1 3 4 9:17 -8 6
W D L L D
15 8 1 2 5 6:14 -8 5
D W D L L
16 8 1 1 6 8:18 -10 4
L L W L D
17 8 1 0 7 2:18 -16 3
L W L L L
18 8 0 3 5 9:16 -7 3
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Challenger Pro League