19.09.2026 19:45
Estadio 15 de Abril

Union Santa Fe vs Independiente Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 43.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
43.1%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Union Santa Fe Win 42.6%
Draw 14.3%
Independiente Win 43.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Union Santa Fe1.41
Independiente1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe
WWDLW
44 GF / 39 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
39 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
17
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
11
5.04
Shots on Goal
4.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 29 matches
Independiente Independiente 29 matches
Union Santa Fe Statistic Independiente
11 Wins 12
7 Draws 8
11 Losses 9
44 Goals For 39
39 Goals Against 36
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
17 BTTS Yes 15
24 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 11
9 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 6
5.04 Shots On Goal 4.04
15.48 Total Shots 13.23
4.63 Corners 6.04
48.8% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Union Santa Fe expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Independiente in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Union Santa Fe Analysis

So far, Union Santa Fe have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 21 points from 16 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 24:20 reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by C. Tarragona (7 goals), L. Menossi (4 goals), A. Colazo (3 goals), with creative support from Julián Palacios (4 assists), C. Tarragona (1 assists), L. Menossi (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Independiente Analysis

Independiente arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 24 points after 16 matches. The record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 24:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Gabriel Ávalos (4 goals), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (3 goals), Lautaro Millán (3 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Ávalos (2 assists), Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 assists), M. Abaldo (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Union Santa Fe won 2 times, Independiente won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:20 from Union Santa Fe's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Union Santa Fe 4-4-2 / Independiente 4-3-3
H2H summary: Union Santa Fe wins 2, draws 6, Independiente wins 6

Standings

Clausura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 4 5 0 12:7 5 17
D W D D D
2 9 5 2 2 11:9 2 17
W L W W D
3 9 5 1 3 14:9 5 16
L D W W W
4 8 5 1 2 8:5 3 16
L W D W W
5 9 3 5 1 12:11 1 14
W D W D D
6 9 4 2 3 8:7 1 14
D W L D W
7 9 4 1 4 16:14 2 13
L W W W L
8 9 3 4 2 10:8 2 13
D D D W W
9 9 3 2 4 4:6 -2 11
D W L D W
10 9 3 1 5 9:9 0 10
W L D L W
11 8 3 1 4 8:8 0 10
W L D L W
12 8 2 3 3 8:7 1 9
D D D L W
13 9 2 3 4 9:14 -5 9
L D L W D
14 9 2 2 5 10:14 -4 8
W L D D L
15 9 2 1 6 5:11 -6 7
L L D L L
Knockout Phase