LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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LNK Sporta Parks

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.4%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Rīgas FS Win 72.4%
Draw 3.4%
Super Nova Win 24.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rīgas FS2.02
Super Nova1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS
WWDLW
92 GF / 33 GA
Super Nova Super Nova
WLDWL
31 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
2.3
Average Goals Scored
1.15
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.59
20
BTTS Yes
17
22
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rīgas FS Rīgas FS 40 matches
Super Nova Super Nova 27 matches
Rīgas FS Statistic Super Nova
31 Wins 9
6 Draws 4
3 Losses 14
92 Goals For 31
33 Goals Against 43
2.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.59
20 BTTS Yes 17
31 Over 1.5 22
22 Over 2.5 15
16 Over 3.5 5
18 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Rīgas FS's more proactive style and Super Nova's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Super Nova. Rīgas FS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 59 points compared to Super Nova in 6 on 27, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Rīgas FS come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Rīgas FS Analysis

Rīgas FS come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 59 points after 23 matches. They have recorded 19 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a 55:16 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Super Nova Analysis

Super Nova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 27 points from 23 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 25:35, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rīgas FS won 14 times, Super Nova won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 53:12 from Rīgas FS's perspective. 14 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 4.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1 / Super Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Rīgas FS wins 14, draws 0, Super Nova wins 1
Last matches: Rīgas FS
30.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Vestri
1
1
D
27.07.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Tukums
1
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Vestri
4
1
W
20.07.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
16.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Glentoran
2
0
W
09.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Glentoran
2
1
W
04.07.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Auda
1
1
D
30.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
26.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
22.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Ogre United
6
0
W
17.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Riga
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Grobiņa
3
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
1
W
25.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Tukums
3
1
W
21.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FS Jelgava
4
0
W
17.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Auda
3
0
W
13.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
5
0
W
02.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Ogre United
4
3
W
28.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Riga
3
3
D
Last matches: Super Nova
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
H2H: Rīgas FS vs Super Nova
29.05.26
H2H
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
W
18.04.26
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
0
W
14.01.26
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
5
2
W
02.11.25
H2H
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
3
W
10.08.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
4
1
W
14.06.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
1
W
20.04.25
H2H
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
W
11.01.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
7
0
W
05.11.23
H2H
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
4
W
13.08.23
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
5
0
W
04.06.23
H2H
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
6
W
24.04.23
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
1
W
23.10.22
H2H
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
4
W
07.08.22
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
3
L
23.05.22
H2H
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
3
W
Last matches: Rīgas FS
23.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Vestri
4
1
W
16.07.26
UEF
Rīgas FS
Glentoran
2
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Auda
1
1
D
30.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
22.06.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Ogre United
6
0
W
25.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Tukums
3
1
W
21.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FS Jelgava
4
0
W
08.05.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
FK Liepaja
5
0
W
28.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Riga
3
3
D
18.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
0
W
04.04.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Auda
0
1
L
21.03.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
4
1
W
06.03.26
Vir
Rīgas FS
Ogre United
2
0
W
28.02.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
Táborsko
4
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
4
2
W
28.01.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
TransINVEST Vilnius
2
1
W
21.01.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
Grobiņa
3
2
W
14.01.26
Fri
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
5
2
W
28.08.25
UEF
Rīgas FS
Hamrun Spartans
2
2
D
H2H at home: Rīgas FS
18.04.26
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
0
W
14.01.26
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
5
2
W
10.08.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
4
1
W
14.06.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
1
W
11.01.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
7
0
W
13.08.23
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
5
0
W
24.04.23
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
1
W
07.08.22
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
3
L
Last matches: Super Nova
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
22.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
08.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
11.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Trans Narva
3
1
W
14.01.26
Fri
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
2
5
L
H2H away: Super Nova
18.04.26
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
0
L
14.01.26
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
5
2
L
10.08.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
4
1
L
14.06.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
1
L
11.01.25
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
7
0
L
13.08.23
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
5
0
L
24.04.23
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
1
L
07.08.22
H2H
Rīgas FS
Super Nova
2
3
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 20 2 2 56:16 40 62
W W D W W
2 23 18 4 1 68:20 48 58
W W W D W
3 23 13 4 6 38:26 12 43
W D L D W
4 25 9 6 10 31:31 0 33
W L W W L
5 23 9 4 10 30:34 -4 31
W L W L L
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 25 6 7 12 25:43 -18 25
L L L L W
8 24 4 9 11 17:37 -20 21
D L W L D
9 24 3 8 13 38:48 -10 17
L L L L L
10 24 3 5 16 23:61 -38 14
D L W L W