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15.10.2026 14:00
LNK Sporta Parks
Referee: D. Kozlovs
Rīgas FS
Match Timeline
Super Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
Z. Lipuscek · Assist: D. Zelenkovs
Rīgas FS
⚽
12'
A. Balde · Assist: J. Ikaunieks
Rīgas FS
🔄
29'
D. Zelenkovs ↔ R. Savalnieks
Rīgas FS
🟨
45+1'
raivis kirss
Super Nova
⚽
45'
J. Ikaunieks · Assist: D. Lemajic
Rīgas FS
🔄
46'
H. Prenga ↔ S. Kumater
Rīgas FS
🔄
46'
R. Kirss ↔ R. Iida
Super Nova
🔄
46'
J. Cirulis ↔ A. Glaudans
Super Nova
🔄
57'
L. Odisharia ↔ M. Kigurs
Rīgas FS
🔄
65'
Bamba ↔ K. Augusts
Super Nova
🔄
65'
I. Patrikejevs ↔ E. Emsis
Super Nova
🔄
77'
D. Lemajic ↔ A. Kouadio
Rīgas FS
🔄
77'
A. Balde ↔ D. Korac
Rīgas FS
🔄
77'
R. Sitjakovs ↔ A. Baghdasaryan
Super Nova
🟨
79'
shina kumater
Rīgas FS
⚽
86'
D. Korac
Rīgas FS

Rīgas FS vs Super Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rīgas FS Win 72.4%
Draw 3.4%
Super Nova Win 24.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rīgas FS1.93
Super Nova1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rīgas FS Rīgas FS
W D W D W
10 GF / 4 GA
Super Nova Super Nova
W L L W W
4 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
2.29
Average Goals Scored
1.06
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
26
BTTS Yes
20
28
Over 2.5
17
0.94
Shots on Goal
0.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rīgas FS Rīgas FS 49 matches
Super Nova Super Nova 35 matches
Rīgas FS Statistic Super Nova
35 Wins 12
9 Draws 6
5 Losses 17
112 Goals For 37
45 Goals Against 49
2.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
26 BTTS Yes 20
39 Over 1.5 25
28 Over 2.5 17
19 Over 3.5 5
20 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 9
0.94 Shots On Goal 0.16
1.94 Total Shots 1.1
1.03 Corners 0.48
10.6% Ball Possession 6.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Rīgas FS's more proactive style and Super Nova's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Super Nova. Rīgas FS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 59 points compared to Super Nova in 6 on 27, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Rīgas FS come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Rīgas FS Analysis

Rīgas FS come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 59 points after 23 matches. They have recorded 19 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a 55:16 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Super Nova Analysis

Super Nova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 27 points from 23 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 25:35, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rīgas FS won 14 times, Super Nova won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 51:12 from Rīgas FS's perspective. 13 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1 / Super Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Rīgas FS wins 14, draws 0, Super Nova wins 1

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 35 28 5 2 87:24 63 89
W W W W W
2 35 25 8 2 95:33 62 83
D W W W W
3 35 21 7 7 61:38 23 70
W W L W D
4 35 14 9 12 42:37 5 51
W W W W D
5 35 13 9 13 49:49 0 48
D D W L D
6 35 11 6 18 35:53 -18 39
D L L L W
7 35 8 8 19 37:61 -24 32
L L L L L
8 35 6 11 18 27:64 -37 29
L L W L D
9 35 5 10 20 44:67 -23 25
L D L L D
10 35 4 7 24 34:85 -51 19
D L L L W