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TURKEY › 1. LIG
15.10.2026 14:00
21 Kasım Stadium
Referee: Burak Olcar

Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.01
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.97
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
2.01 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.97 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.49 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Mardin 1969 Win 54.1%
Draw 14%
Fatih Karagümrük Win 31.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mardin 19691.23
Fatih Karagümrük1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mardin 1969 Mardin 1969
WWDLW
11 GF / 7 GA
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
WLDWL
17 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.42
0.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
3
BTTS Yes
10
3
Over 2.5
6
3.44
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mardin 1969 Mardin 1969 10 matches
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 12 matches
Mardin 1969 Statistic Fatih Karagümrük
4 Wins 4
3 Draws 4
3 Losses 4
11 Goals For 17
7 Goals Against 17
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
0.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
3 BTTS Yes 10
5 Over 1.5 12
3 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 1
3.44 Shots On Goal 4.56
11.67 Total Shots 12.89
4.89 Corners 4
42.8% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fatih Karagümrük. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mardin 1969 expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Fatih Karagümrük in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fatih Karagümrük having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Mardin 1969 Analysis

So far, Mardin 1969 have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 12 points from 8 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 9:5 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Olarenwaju Kayode (3 goals), Tonio Teklić (2 goals), Zdravko Dimitrov (1 goals), with creative support from Olarenwaju Kayode (1 assists), Zdravko Dimitrov (1 assists), Bunyamin Balat (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Fatih Karagümrük Analysis

So far, Fatih Karagümrük have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 12 points from 8 matches. The record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 12:11 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ahmed Traore (2 goals), Aleksandar Pešić (2 goals), Davide Biraschi (1 goals), with creative support from Ahmed Traore (2 assists), Aleksandar Pešić (1 assists), Davide Biraschi (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86%)
Predicted formations: Mardin 1969 4-1-4-1 / Fatih Karagümrük 4-2-3-1

Standings

Lig A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 22:5 17 25
W W W W W
2 10 6 2 2 14:8 6 20
D W D W W
3 9 6 1 2 17:9 8 19
L W D W W
4 10 6 1 3 20:17 3 19
W L L L W
5 10 4 5 1 19:10 9 17
D W D D W
6 9 4 3 2 11:6 5 15
W L L W D
7 10 4 3 3 13:14 -1 15
L D W D L
8 10 5 0 5 15:17 -2 15
L W W W L
9 10 3 5 2 15:6 9 14
D W L D W
10 9 3 4 2 13:12 1 13
D W D L D
11 10 2 6 2 14:13 1 12
D W D D W
12 9 2 6 1 9:8 1 12
D D D D W
13 10 2 5 3 11:9 2 11
W L D W L
14 10 2 4 4 12:19 -7 10
L L D D W
15 9 2 3 4 14:15 -1 9
L L D L L
16 9 1 5 3 5:10 -5 8
W L D L D
17 9 1 4 4 7:10 -3 7
D W L L
18 10 2 3 5 10:20 -10 7
W L L D D
19 10 1 2 7 9:24 -15 5
L L W L L
20 9 0 1 8 3:21 -18 1
L L D L
Promotion - Super Lig
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation