UCV Moquegua vs FBC Melgar Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
86.9%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
63.2%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
64.5%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
UCV Moquegua
20 matches
FBC Melgar
24 matches
| UCV Moquegua | Statistic | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 12 |
| 5 | Draws | 6 |
| 10 | Losses | 6 |
| 19 | Goals For | 41 |
| 28 | Goals Against | 27 |
| 0.95 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.71 |
| 1.4 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.13 |
| 9 | BTTS Yes | 17 |
| 13 | Over 1.5 | 21 |
| 12 | Over 2.5 | 14 |
| 4 | Over 3.5 | 9 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 3 |
| 3.63 | Shots On Goal | 4.68 |
| 10.47 | Total Shots | 14.89 |
| 3.26 | Corners | 4.84 |
| 39.3% | Ball Possession | 53.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FBC Melgar's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FBC Melgar. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with UCV Moquegua expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FBC Melgar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FBC Melgar having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. FBC Melgar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 31 points while UCV Moquegua sit 15 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
UCV Moquegua sit 15 with 19 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 19:26, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Edgar Lastre (5 goals), Jeferson Collazos (3 goals), Cristian Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Yorman Zapata (2 assists), Nicolas Amasifuen (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Operating from 5 place with 31 points from 18 games, FBC Melgar bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 32:21, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Jhonny Vidales (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.
Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, FBC Melgar won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:6 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 42:18 | 24 | 53 |
L
D
L
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 43:27 | 16 | 49 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 3 |
FBC Melgar
Away
|
26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 44:28 | 16 | 45 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
| 4 | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 35:24 | 11 | 45 |
L
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 38:37 | 1 | 42 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 6 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 35:44 | -9 | 41 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 7 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 44:37 | 7 | 40 |
W
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 38:34 | 4 | 37 |
L
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 28:25 | 3 | 37 |
W
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 45:39 | 6 | 35 |
W
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 11 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 25:28 | -3 | 32 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 12 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34:42 | -8 | 32 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 13 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38:52 | -14 | 31 |
W
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 34:36 | -2 | 30 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 40:50 | -10 | 27 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 16 |
UCV Moquegua
Home
|
26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 24:37 | -13 | 25 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
| 17 | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 27:39 | -12 | 22 |
L
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 18 | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 30:47 | -17 | 15 |
L
L
L
L
L
|