PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio 25 de Noviembre

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.9%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.02
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.9%
1.33
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.02
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.61
HT / FT Home / Home
-
6.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 39.5%
Draw 13.1%
FBC Melgar Win 47.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua1.02
FBC Melgar1.59
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
19 GF / 28 GA
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WLDWL
41 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.95
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
9
BTTS Yes
17
12
Over 2.5
14
3.63
Shots on Goal
4.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 20 matches
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 24 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic FBC Melgar
5 Wins 12
5 Draws 6
10 Losses 6
19 Goals For 41
28 Goals Against 27
0.95 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
9 BTTS Yes 17
13 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 3
3.63 Shots On Goal 4.68
10.47 Total Shots 14.79
3.26 Corners 4.84
39.3% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around FBC Melgar's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FBC Melgar. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with UCV Moquegua expected to line up in 4-4-2 and FBC Melgar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FBC Melgar having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. FBC Melgar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 31 points while UCV Moquegua sit 15 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua sit 15 with 19 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 19:26, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Edgar Lastre (5 goals), Jeferson Collazos (3 goals), Cristian Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Yorman Zapata (2 assists), Nicolas Amasifuen (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FBC Melgar Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 31 points from 18 games, FBC Melgar bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 9 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 32:21, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Jhonny Vidales (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, FBC Melgar won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:6 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.9%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-4-2 / FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 1, FBC Melgar wins 2
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
26.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
29.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
03.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
20.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cienciano
1
2
L
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Atletico
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
4
L
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
02.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
Last matches: FBC Melgar
26.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
18.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
3
1
W
18.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
22.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
15.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
3
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
ADT
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
H2H: UCV Moquegua vs FBC Melgar
29.06.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
15.02.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
L
17.01.26
H2H
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
2
0
L
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
18.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
Last matches: FBC Melgar
18.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
3
1
W
18.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
22.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
10.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
28.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
15.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
3
1
W
20.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
ADT
1
1
D
10.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
08.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
20.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
3
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.05
Draw 3.25
Home 3.44
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.57
Draw 2.10
Home 3.83
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.31
Over 1.75 1.39
Over 2.0 1.52
Over 2.25 1.79
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.30
Over 3.0 2.84
Over 3.25 3.18
Under 1.5 3.19
Under 1.75 2.82
Under 2.0 2.46
Under 2.25 2.01
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.56
Under 3.0 1.38
Under 3.25 1.32
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.00
Draw 3.25
Home 3.70
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.10
Home 4.33
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 2.38
Home 3.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.05
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.05
Draw 3.32
Home 3.51
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.65
Draw 2.03
Home 4.35
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.39
Home 3.78
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.02
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.16
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 1.75 1.37
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.75
Over 2.5 2.01
Over 2.75 2.30
Over 3.0 2.77
Over 3.25 3.14
Over 3.5 3.34
Over 3.75 4.28
Over 4.0 5.90
Over 4.25 6.25
Over 4.5 6.65
Over 5.5 13.50
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 0.75 7.80
Under 1.0 7.10
Under 1.25 4.16
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 1.75 2.75
Under 2.0 2.36
Under 2.25 1.95
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.07
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.04
Draw 3.30
Home 3.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.63
Draw 2.15
Home 4.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 2.43
Home 3.65
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 3.0 2.90
Over 3.25 3.25
Over 3.5 3.55
Over 4.0 5.80
Over 4.25 6.10
Over 4.5 6.40
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.0 2.28
Under 2.5 1.67
Under 3.0 1.34
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 4.0 1.09
Under 4.25 1.08
Under 4.5 1.07

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W D W W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
L W D L W
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
L L W D L
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W W W D L
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W W W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
L W W W L
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W L W D W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
W L L D W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
D D L D L
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L L L W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W L W D W
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L W L
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D L D D L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
D D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
L D D D W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
L W W L W
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
W L L D L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
W D L D L
Play-offs