LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: E. Malcevs
Tukums
Match Timeline
Super Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
37'
M. Derkach · Assist: B. Samoilovs
Tukums
🟨
45'
M. Stals
Tukums
45'
V. Lizunovs
Super Nova
48'
K. Skadmanis · Assist: A. Grikovs
Super Nova
🔄
64'
Bamba ↔ A. Glaudans
Super Nova
🔄
64'
K. Skadmanis ↔ A. Baghdasaryan
Super Nova
🔄
71'
J. Toba ↔ K. Klavins
Tukums
🔄
75'
A. Grikovs ↔ I. Sylla
Super Nova
🟨
78'
R. Sitjakovs
Super Nova
🔄
78'
Leoni ↔ T. Matsubara
Tukums
🔄
87'
M. Susts ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.2%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.2%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 68.2%
Draw 5.2%
Super Nova Win 26.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.71
Super Nova1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
40 GF / 45 GA
Super Nova Super Nova
WLDWL
26 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.74
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
21
BTTS Yes
15
18
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 23 matches
Super Nova Super Nova 24 matches
Tukums Statistic Super Nova
3 Wins 7
10 Draws 4
10 Losses 13
40 Goals For 26
45 Goals Against 40
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
21 BTTS Yes 15
23 Over 1.5 19
18 Over 2.5 13
11 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Super Nova having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Super Nova. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 17 points from 19 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 33:36, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Super Nova Analysis

With 21 points from 19 games and a place of 6, Super Nova still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 10 defeats with a 19:27 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 6 times, Super Nova won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:20 from Tukums's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Tukums - / Super Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tukums wins 6, draws 3, Super Nova wins 6

Lineups

Tukums
Formation
Super Nova
I. Baturins
I. Baturins
R. Melkis
R. Melkis
M. Susts
M. Susts
H. Joksts
H. Joksts
M. Stals
M. Stals
M. Derkach
M. Derkach
B. Samoilovs
🎯
B. Samoilovs
J. Toba
J. Toba
S. Shibata
S. Shibata
Leoni
Leoni
R. Deruzinskis
R. Deruzinskis
D. Veisbuks
D. Veisbuks
M. Tihonovics
M. Tihonovics
M. Oss
M. Oss
J. Cirulis
J. Cirulis
R. Iida
R. Iida
Bamba
Bamba
R. Sitjakovs
R. Sitjakovs
E. Emsis
E. Emsis
A. Grikovs
🎯
A. Grikovs
K. Skadmanis
K. Skadmanis
V. Lizunovs
V. Lizunovs
Tukums 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
97
I. Baturins
28
R. Melkis
30
M. Susts
↓ 87'
25
H. Joksts
88
M. Stals
🟨 45'
17
M. Derkach
⚽ 37'
10
B. Samoilovs
🎯 37'
5
J. Toba
↓ 71'
7
S. Shibata
11
Leoni
↓ 78'
27
R. Deruzinskis
Substitutes
35
K. Minajevs
21
D. Valmiers
16
K. Klavins
↑ 71'
22
R. Baumanis
↑ 87'
23
I. Atligins
32
K. Uzis
18
D. Calbergs
37
T. Matsubara
↑ 78'
Super Nova 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
90
D. Veisbuks
21
M. Tihonovics
25
M. Oss
5
J. Cirulis
3
R. Iida
9
Bamba
↓ 64'
24
R. Sitjakovs
🟨 78'
6
E. Emsis
19
A. Grikovs
🎯 48' ↓ 75'
22
K. Skadmanis
⚽ 48' ↓ 64'
10
V. Lizunovs
⚽ 45'
Substitutes
31
T. Petrovics
7
A. Glaudans
↑ 64'
16
K. Romanovs
4
L. Berzins
29
A. Baghdasaryan
↑ 64'
27
N. Pathe
20
I. Ndiaye
26
I. Sylla
↑ 75'
Last matches: Tukums
08.08.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
2
L
02.08.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
27.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
26.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
2
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
Last matches: Super Nova
09.08.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
H2H: Tukums vs Super Nova
11.07.26
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
01.07.26
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
11.05.26
H2H
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
22.03.26
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
28.09.25
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
2
1
W
06.07.25
H2H
Super Nova
Tukums
1
0
L
16.05.25
H2H
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
31.03.25
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
2
2
D
17.09.23
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
0
W
30.06.23
H2H
Super Nova
Tukums
2
5
W
27.05.23
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
3
2
W
19.03.23
H2H
Super Nova
Tukums
2
0
L
08.10.22
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
2
0
W
23.07.22
H2H
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
L
09.07.22
H2H
Super Nova
Tukums
0
2
W
Last matches: Tukums
02.08.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
27.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
H2H at home: Tukums
11.07.26
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
01.07.26
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
22.03.26
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
28.09.25
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
2
1
W
31.03.25
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
2
2
D
17.09.23
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
0
W
27.05.23
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
3
2
W
08.10.22
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
2
0
W
Last matches: Super Nova
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
22.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
08.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
11.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Trans Narva
3
1
W
14.01.26
Fri
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
2
5
L
H2H away: Super Nova
11.07.26
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
W
01.07.26
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
W
22.03.26
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
W
28.09.25
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
2
1
L
31.03.25
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
2
2
D
17.09.23
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
1
0
L
27.05.23
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
3
2
L
08.10.22
H2H
Tukums
Super Nova
2
0
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 20 4 1 76:21 55 64
W W W W W
2 24 20 2 2 56:16 40 62
W W D W W
3 24 14 4 6 39:26 13 46
W W D L D
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 25 10 4 11 33:37 -4 34
W L W L W
6 24 8 3 13 26:37 -11 27
L W L W L
7 26 6 7 13 25:44 -19 25
L L L L L
8 25 4 9 12 17:41 -24 21
L D L W L
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 25 3 5 17 24:65 -41 14
L D L W L