ARGENTINA PRIMERA NACIONAL
21.09.2026 22:00
Estadio Nueva Chicago

Nueva Chicago vs Patronato Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.8%
Odds 2.39
BTTS
No
Probability 51.6%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.42
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.8%
2.39
BTTS No
51.6%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.42
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.07
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 1-0
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
Nueva Chicago Win 66.8%
Draw 13.4%
Patronato Win 19.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nueva Chicago0.84
Patronato0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago
WWDLW
21 GF / 28 GA
Patronato Patronato
WLDWL
23 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.72
Average Goals Scored
0.79
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
8
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nueva Chicago Nueva Chicago 29 matches
Patronato Patronato 29 matches
Nueva Chicago Statistic Patronato
8 Wins 5
8 Draws 15
13 Losses 9
21 Goals For 23
28 Goals Against 30
0.72 Avg Goals Scored 0.79
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
8 BTTS Yes 10
15 Over 1.5 17
7 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 3
10 Clean Sheets 11
16 Failed To Score 15
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Patronato. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Nueva Chicago have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Patronato having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nueva Chicago Analysis

Nueva Chicago approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 32 points from 29 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 21:28, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Patronato Analysis

Patronato approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 29 points from 28 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 14 draws, and 9 defeats with a 23:30 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Nueva Chicago won 2 times, Patronato won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:3 from Nueva Chicago's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Nueva Chicago 4-1-4-1 / Patronato -
H2H summary: Nueva Chicago wins 2, draws 2, Patronato wins 1

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 14 11 4 31:15 16 53
D D W L W
2 30 14 11 5 36:24 12 53
W D W W W
3 30 15 8 7 45:36 9 53
D W W D D
4 29 15 3 11 34:28 6 48
W W L L W
5 30 13 8 9 34:25 9 47
W W L L W
6 30 12 9 9 33:27 6 45
W D L W W
7 30 12 9 9 31:27 4 45
L D W W L
8 30 11 9 10 25:26 -1 42
W L L W D
9 30 11 8 11 37:31 6 41
D D D L W
10 30 11 7 12 29:30 -1 40
L W L W W
11 30 9 12 9 32:30 2 39
L W L D W
12 30 9 9 12 26:34 -8 36
W L W D L
13 30 9 8 13 28:27 1 35
L W L L L
14 30 9 8 13 26:36 -10 35
L D L W D
15 29 8 8 13 21:28 -7 32
L W L L L
16 29 5 15 9 23:30 -7 30
D D L W D
17 30 8 6 16 22:31 -9 30
W L L L L
18 30 5 8 17 23:51 -28 23
L L L D D
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation