LATVIA VIRSLIGA
29.08.2026 14:00
Referee: A. Anufrijevs
Tukums
Match Timeline
FS Jelgava
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
T. Rataj · Assist: F. Hasek
FS Jelgava
🟨
6'
R. Reingolcs
Tukums
26'
Leoni · Assist: D. Valmiers
Tukums
🟨
43'
M. Stals
Tukums
47'
A. Petersons · Assist: M. Hasek
FS Jelgava
🟨
58'
Leoni
Tukums
62'
R. Melkis · Assist: M. Semesko
FS Jelgava
🟨
65'
T. Rataj
FS Jelgava
🔄
66'
D. Valmiers ↔ R. Melkis
Tukums
🔄
71'
Anmanis Kaspars ↔ K. Shigema
Tukums
🔄
71'
T. Rataj ↔ G. Patika
FS Jelgava
🔄
72'
R. Melkis ↔ R. Becers
FS Jelgava
75'
F. Hasek · Assist: G. Zaleiko
FS Jelgava
🔄
78'
M. Stals ↔ M. Susts
Tukums
🔄
78'
Leoni ↔ I. Atligins
Tukums
🟨
90+4'
R. Reingolcs
Tukums
🟥
90+4'
R. Reingolcs
Tukums
🔄
90'
M. Pudil ↔ G. Kacanovs
FS Jelgava
🔄
90'
A. Kangars ↔ A. Dreimanis
FS Jelgava
🔄
90'
G. Zaleiko ↔ A. Deklavs
FS Jelgava

Tukums vs FS Jelgava Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.1%
Odds 2.80
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.80
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.1%
2.80
BTTS No
50.8%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.80
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.40
Correct Score 3-0
-
29.00
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 51.1%
Draw 11.8%
FS Jelgava Win 37.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.58
FS Jelgava1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
45 GF / 60 GA
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WLDWL
33 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.03
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.69
25
BTTS Yes
14
23
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 30 matches
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 32 matches
Tukums Statistic FS Jelgava
4 Wins 8
10 Draws 7
16 Losses 17
45 Goals For 33
60 Goals Against 54
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.69
25 BTTS Yes 14
29 Over 1.5 23
23 Over 2.5 13
13 Over 3.5 9
1 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 15
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward FS Jelgava. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 20 points from 27 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 8 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 40:54 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FS Jelgava Analysis

FS Jelgava sit 7 with 25 points after 26 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 25:44 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 4 times, FS Jelgava won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:21 from Tukums's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.2%)
Predicted formations: Tukums 5-3-2 / FS Jelgava 5-4-1
H2H summary: Tukums wins 4, draws 7, FS Jelgava wins 4

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 23 4 2 70:21 49 73
W D W D W
2 29 20 7 2 84:30 54 67
D D L D W
3 29 17 6 6 47:29 18 57
D W D W W
4 30 12 6 12 41:43 -2 42
D D W L W
5 30 10 8 12 35:35 0 38
L D L D W
6 28 10 5 13 29:38 -9 35
W W D D L
7 30 8 8 14 32:48 -16 32
D L W W L
8 30 5 10 15 20:51 -31 25
D L W L L
9 30 5 8 17 43:60 -17 23
L W L L L
10 29 3 6 20 29:75 -46 15
D L L L L