ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
16.08.2026 14:00
Narva Kalev-Fama staadion
Referee: K. Tohver
Trans Narva
Match Timeline
Paide
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
T. Berardozzi
Trans Narva
🟨
6'
Daniel Cabral
Paide
🔄
46'
M. Lilander ↔ Andrade
Paide
🔄
46'
Daniel Cabral ↔ H. Ojamaa
Paide
🔄
46'
R. Smirnov ↔ M. Jobarteh
Paide
🔄
52'
Elysee ↔ E. Zuravljov
Trans Narva
🟨
54'
T. Berardozzi
Trans Narva
55'
Andrade · Assist: N. Baranov
Paide
🔄
67'
A. Filatov ↔ A. Besigirskis
Trans Narva
🔄
70'
D. Luts ↔ A. Badamosi
Paide
🟨
73'
W. Awusi
Trans Narva
🟨
76'
H. Ojamaa
Paide
🔄
82'
A. Ivanyushin ↔ S. Agaptsev
Trans Narva
🔄
82'
A. Gero ↔ A. Skinjov
Trans Narva
🔄
82'
W. Awusi ↔ J. Imeh
Trans Narva
🟨
83'
E. Zuravljov
Trans Narva
🔄
89'
O. Hoim ↔ A. Surogin
Paide

Trans Narva vs Paide Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 70.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
70.7%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
88.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Trans Narva Win 29.3%
Draw 19.1%
Paide Win 51.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Trans Narva1.13
Paide1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WWDLW
29 GF / 64 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
55 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
1.57
2.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
15
BTTS Yes
24
21
Over 2.5
19
0
Shots on Goal
0.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Trans Narva Trans Narva 30 matches
Paide Paide 35 matches
Trans Narva Statistic Paide
6 Wins 16
5 Draws 9
19 Losses 10
29 Goals For 55
64 Goals Against 48
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
2.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
15 BTTS Yes 24
25 Over 1.5 26
21 Over 2.5 19
9 Over 3.5 14
5 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0.75
0 Total Shots 2.5
0 Corners 1.25
0% Ball Possession 15.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Paide's more proactive style and Trans Narva's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control. Paide carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 35 points while Trans Narva sit 10 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Paide. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Trans Narva have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 16 points from 22 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 1 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 17:50 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paide Analysis

Paide approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 35 points after 21 outings. They have recorded 10 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with a 33:28 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Trans Narva won 5 times, Paide won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:20 from Trans Narva's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.9%)
Predicted formations: Trans Narva - / Paide 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Trans Narva wins 5, draws 5, Paide wins 5

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 22 6 1 81:21 60 72
D W W W W
2 29 18 1 10 59:39 20 55
W W D W W
3
Paide Away
29 15 6 8 48:36 12 51
W W L W L
4 29 15 5 9 52:27 25 50
W W L L L
5 29 14 2 13 37:47 -10 44
L L W L W
6 29 11 2 16 40:47 -7 35
D W L L W
7 29 10 4 15 39:57 -18 34
L L L W W
8 29 8 5 16 31:49 -18 29
D L L W D
9 29 9 1 19 47:68 -21 28
L L W L L
10 29 5 4 20 22:65 -43 19
D L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga