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16.10.2026 00:30
Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi
Referee: J. Benitez

Estudiantes L.P. vs Flamengo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 43.9%
Odds 2.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 2.54
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
43.9%
2.28 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
2.10 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
2.54 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Estudiantes L.P. Win 41.7%
Draw 14.4%
Flamengo Win 43.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estudiantes L.P.1.1
Flamengo1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WWDLW
56 GF / 30 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
85 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.98
0.7
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
14
BTTS Yes
23
15
Over 2.5
24
5.15
Shots on Goal
5.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 43 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 43 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Statistic Flamengo
20 Wins 28
11 Draws 11
12 Losses 4
56 Goals For 85
30 Goals Against 35
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.98
0.7 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
14 BTTS Yes 23
26 Over 1.5 39
15 Over 2.5 24
5 Over 3.5 9
18 Clean Sheets 18
15 Failed To Score 2
5.15 Shots On Goal 5.74
14.23 Total Shots 15.69
4.38 Corners 5.03
54.1% Ball Possession 56.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Flamengo have the edge after taking the first leg 1-0, leaving Estudiantes L.P. needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Flamengo controlled more possession in the first leg (67% against 33%). Flamengo carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 4 shots on goal compared to 1. Flamengo circulated the ball more often, making 451 passes to 217 and completing 389. Flamengo look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Flamengo. Flamengo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Estudiantes L.P. sit 2 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Estudiantes L.P. enter this tie with a season profile built on 9 points from 6 matches, placing them 2 in their league. The return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 6:5 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Tiago Palacios (3 goals), A. Castro (2 goals), Mikel Amondarain (1 goals), with creative support from Mikel Amondarain (2 assists), A. Castro (1 assists), T. Palacios (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 16 points from 6 matches. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 14:2 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking influence is driven by Bruno Henrique (5 goals), G. de Arrascaeta (3 goals), Lucas Paquetá (3 goals), with creative support from Bruno Henrique (2 assists), Ayrton Lucas (2 assists), G. de Arrascaeta (1 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes L.P. won 1 times, Flamengo won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:4 from Estudiantes L.P.'s perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Estudiantes L.P. 4-2-3-1 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estudiantes L.P. wins 1, draws 1, Flamengo wins 2

Standings

Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 14:2 12 16
W W D W W
2 6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
W L D D W
3 6 2 1 3 6:11 -5 7
L W W L D
4 6 0 1 5 4:12 -8 1
L L D L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals