Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | No Draw |
100%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
58%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
58.2%
|
- |
Tondela
Nacional
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Tondela
29 matches
Nacional
30 matches
| Tondela | Statistic | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wins | 7 |
| 9 | Draws | 7 |
| 16 | Losses | 16 |
| 21 | Goals For | 32 |
| 48 | Goals Against | 41 |
| 0.72 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.07 |
| 1.66 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.37 |
| 10 | BTTS Yes | 15 |
| 19 | Over 1.5 | 21 |
| 15 | Over 2.5 | 13 |
| 8 | Over 3.5 | 6 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 17 | Failed To Score | 10 |
| 3.38 | Shots On Goal | 4.2 |
| 10.14 | Total Shots | 12.27 |
| 3.9 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 42.9% | Ball Possession | 45.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nacional. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tondela expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Nacional in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nacional having the stronger overall control.
Tondela approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 21 points from 29 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 16 defeats with a 19:44 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Pedro Henryque (7 goals), Bebeto (2 goals), Ivan Cavaleiro (2 goals), with creative support from Rony Lopes (2 assists), Pedro Henryque (1 assists), Joe Hodge (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Nacional approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 28 points from 30 matches. The overall return of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 16 defeats with a 31:41 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jesús Ramírez (16 goals), Paulinho Bóia (4 goals), Ze Vitor (4 goals), with creative support from José Gomes (5 assists), Liziero (4 assists), Paulinho Bóia (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tondela won 5 times, Nacional won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:22 from Tondela's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.
Tondela
5
6
9
4
8
7
Lineups
Tondela
Beira-Mar
Tondela
Famalicao
Tondela
Academica
Tondela
Nacional
Tondela
Varzim
Tondela
Arouca
Tondela
Moreirense
Tondela
Casa Pia
Tondela
Sporting CP
Tondela
FC Porto
Tondela
GIL Vicente
Tondela
Guimaraes
Tondela
AVS
Tondela
Rio Ave
Tondela
Santa Clara
Tondela
Estrela
Tondela
Alverca
Tondela
Estoril
Tondela
Benfica
Tondela
Famalicao
Nacional
Estrela
Nacional
Leganes
Nacional
Tondela
Nacional
Leixoes
Nacional
Machico
Nacional
Guimaraes
Nacional
Santa Clara
Nacional
AVS
Nacional
Alverca
Nacional
Benfica
Nacional
Estrela
Nacional
Famalicao
Nacional
Estoril
Nacional
Moreirense
Nacional
SC Braga
Nacional
Arouca
Nacional
FC Porto
Nacional
Casa Pia
Nacional
Sporting CP
Nacional
Rio Ave
Tondela
Beira-Mar
Tondela
Academica
Tondela
Nacional
Tondela
Varzim
Tondela
Moreirense
Tondela
GIL Vicente
Tondela
AVS
Tondela
Rio Ave
Tondela
Santa Clara
Tondela
Alverca
Tondela
Benfica
Tondela
SC Braga
Tondela
Arouca
Tondela
Casa Pia
Tondela
FC Porto
Tondela
Guimaraes
Tondela
Sporting CP
Tondela
Estrela
Tondela
Estoril
Tondela
Famalicao
Nacional
Estrela
Nacional
Tondela
Nacional
Santa Clara
Nacional
Benfica
Nacional
Famalicao
Nacional
Moreirense
Nacional
Arouca
Nacional
Sporting CP
Nacional
GIL Vicente
Nacional
Guimaraes
Nacional
AVS
Nacional
Alverca
Nacional
Estrela
Nacional
Estoril
Nacional
SC Braga
Nacional
FC Porto
Nacional
Casa Pia
Nacional
Rio Ave