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MEXICO › LIGA MX
--.--.---- --:--
Toluca
FT
3 - 1
Necaxa
Toluca
Match Timeline
Necaxa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
29'
I. Lopez · Assist: J. Gallardo
Toluca
⚽
42'
J. Carranza · Assist: A. Pena
Necaxa
VAR
44'
Julián Carranza
Necaxa
🟨
45+7'
Agustín Oliveros
Necaxa
🟨
45+4'
Raúl Martínez
Necaxa
🟥
45+6'
Julián Carranza
Necaxa
⚽
45'
E. del Villar · Assist: I. Lopez
Toluca
🔄
46'
J. P. Torres Patino ↔ P. Pedraza
Necaxa
🔄
46'
C. Vargas ↔ M. Zaleta
Necaxa
🔄
46'
J. Ruiz ↔ J. Valencia
Necaxa
⚽
57'
L. Jimenez
Toluca
🔄
59'
I. Lopez ↔ F. Vinas
Toluca
🔄
59'
J. Diaz Price ↔ V. Guzman
Toluca
🔄
65'
E. Gutierrez ↔ Helinho
Toluca
🔄
65'
J. Angulo ↔ P. Perez
Toluca
🔄
67'
L. Faravelli ↔ M. Espindola
Necaxa
🟨
80'
Agustín Oliveros
Necaxa
🟥
80'
Agustín Oliveros
Necaxa
🔄
85'
D. Leyva ↔ F. Mendez
Necaxa
🟨
90+7'
Franco Romero
Toluca
🟨
90+7'
Juan Valencia
Necaxa
🔄
90'
A. Vega ↔ A. Briseno
Toluca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 46.8%
Draw 23.2%
Necaxa Win 30%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.71
Necaxa1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca Toluca
WWDLW
25 GF / 14 GA
Necaxa Necaxa
WLDWL
13 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
2.27
Average Goals Scored
1.86
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
6
BTTS Yes
4
8
Over 2.5
4
7
Shots on Goal
7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca Toluca 11 matches
Necaxa Necaxa 7 matches
Toluca Statistic Necaxa
5 Wins 5
2 Draws 2
4 Losses 0
25 Goals For 13
14 Goals Against 6
2.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
6 BTTS Yes 4
10 Over 1.5 4
8 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 2
7 Shots On Goal 7
18 Total Shots 14.5
4.44 Corners 7.5
59.7% Ball Possession 64.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 10 times, Necaxa won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:16 from Toluca's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.8%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Necaxa 5-3-2
H2H summary: Toluca wins 10, draws 3, Necaxa wins 2
Stats
Toluca Toluca
Necaxa Necaxa
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 2
15 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0
75% Ball Possession 25%
25 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Goal 3
12 Shots off Goal 4
6 Blocked Shots 2
15 Shots insidebox 3
10 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 5
745 Total passes 248
689 Passes accurate 182
1.51 expected_goals 1.32
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 2 🟥

Lineups

Toluca
Formation
Necaxa
L. Garcia
L. Garcia
S. Simon
S. Simon
F. Pereira
F. Pereira
E. del Villar
⚽
E. del Villar
J. Gallardo
🎯
J. Gallardo
J. Diaz Price
↓
J. Diaz Price
F. Romero
F. Romero
J. Angulo
↓
J. Angulo
E. Gutierrez
↓
E. Gutierrez
A. Vega
↓
A. Vega
I. Lopez
⚽ 🎯 ↓
I. Lopez
L. Jimenez
⚽
L. Jimenez
E. Rodriguez
E. Rodriguez
R. Martinez
R. Martinez
A. Pena
🎯
A. Pena
A. Oliveros
A. Oliveros
C. Vargas
↓
C. Vargas
L. Faravelli
↓
L. Faravelli
D. Leyva
↓
D. Leyva
J. Ruiz
↓
J. Ruiz
J. P. Torres Patino
↓
J. P. Torres Patino
J. Carranza
⚽
J. Carranza
Toluca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
L. Garcia
G
19
S. Simon
D
6
F. Pereira
D
25
E. del Villar
⚽ 45'
D
20
J. Gallardo
🎯 29'
D
29
J. Diaz Price
↓ 59'
M
5
F. Romero
🟨 90+7'
M
10
J. Angulo
↓ 65'
M
35
E. Gutierrez
↓ 65'
M
9
A. Vega
↓ 90'
M
21
I. Lopez
⚽ 29' 🎯 45' ↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
1
H. Gonzalez
G
13
Luan
D
24
F. Arce
M
11
Helinho
↑ 65'
F
16
F. Vinas
↑ 59'
F
15
P. Perez
↑ 65'
M
3
A. Briseno
↑ 90'
D
7
V. Guzman
↑ 59'
M
4
Bruno Mendez
D
17
B. A. Garcia Caprizo
D
Necaxa 5-3-2
Starting XI
12
L. Jimenez
⚽ 57'
G
99
E. Rodriguez
D
33
R. Martinez
🟨 45+4'
D
4
A. Pena
🎯 42'
D
3
A. Oliveros
🟨 45+7' 🟨 80' 🟥 80'
D
88
C. Vargas
↓ 46'
D
8
L. Faravelli
↓ 67'
M
6
D. Leyva
↓ 85'
M
10
J. Ruiz
↓ 46'
M
11
J. P. Torres Patino
↓ 46'
F
9
J. Carranza
⚽ 42' 🟥 45+6'
F
Substitutes
1
C. Andrade
G
5
Naves
D
17
R. Cortez
M
30
R. Monreal
F
16
P. Pedraza
↑ 46'
M
27
M. Pedroza
F
14
M. Zaleta
↑ 46'
M
21
M. Espindola
↑ 67'
M
90
J. Valencia
↑ 46' 🟨 90+7'
F
20
F. Mendez
↑ 85'
D
Last matches: Toluca
22.08.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
0
D
15.08.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlante FC
0
0
D
22.07.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Atlante FC
3
3
D
04.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Cancún
0
1
L
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
10.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
30.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
23.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club America
1
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
04.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
1
D
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
Last matches: Necaxa
29.08.26
Lig
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
3
L
24.08.26
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
1
D
18.08.26
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
1
2
L
26.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Monterrey
2
1
W
17.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlante FC
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Leon
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Atlas
0
0
D
01.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Correcaminos Uat
6
3
W
20.06.26
Fri
Necaxa
Monarcas
1
0
W
27.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
4
L
23.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Queretaro
1
3
L
04.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Mazatlán
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Tijuana
3
0
W
14.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Puebla
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
1
L
04.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
01.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
1
2
L
22.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Toluca
0
3
L
H2H: Toluca vs Necaxa
03.08.26
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
W
22.02.26
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
0
3
W
13.07.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
5
2
W
28.10.24
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
1
3
W
10.02.24
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
3
3
D
02.07.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
0
0
D
30.04.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
0
W
27.12.22
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
0
W
02.07.22
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
1
3
W
05.03.22
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
0
1
W
21.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
1
D
24.01.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
0
W
31.10.20
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
3
2
L
19.01.20
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
3
L
Last matches: Toluca
22.07.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
2
L
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlas
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
3
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Tijuana
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
15.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Santos Laguna
3
1
W
15.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Tigres UANL
2
1
W
07.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Monterrey
3
2
W
30.11.25
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
0
0
D
09.11.25
Lig
Toluca
Club America
2
0
W
27.10.25
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
2
2
D
18.10.25
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
4
0
W
H2H at home: Toluca
03.08.26
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
W
13.07.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
5
2
W
02.07.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
0
0
D
30.04.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
0
W
27.12.22
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
0
W
21.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
1
D
24.01.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
0
W
19.01.20
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
3
L
Last matches: Necaxa
24.08.26
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
1
D
11.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Leon
0
0
D
04.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Atlas
0
0
D
01.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Correcaminos Uat
6
3
W
27.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
4
L
11.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Queretaro
1
3
L
14.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Puebla
0
0
D
04.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
01.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
1
2
L
15.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
FC Juarez
2
1
W
31.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club America
0
2
L
11.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Santos Laguna
3
1
W
03.01.26
Fri
Necaxa
Leon
2
1
W
08.11.25
Lig
Necaxa
Mazatlán
1
1
D
27.10.25
Lig
Necaxa
Atletico San Luis
4
3
W
18.10.25
Lig
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
3
5
L
27.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
Atlas
2
3
L
24.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
1
3
L
01.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
Club Tijuana
0
3
L
24.08.25
Lig
Necaxa
Monterrey
0
3
L
H2H away: Necaxa
03.08.26
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
L
13.07.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
L
08.03.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
5
2
L
02.07.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
0
0
D
30.04.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
0
L
27.12.22
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
0
L
21.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
1
D
24.01.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
0
L
19.01.20
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
3
W

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Club America
6 5 1 0 12:2 10 16
W W W W D
2
Club Tijuana
6 4 1 1 10:7 3 13
W L W D W
3
Atlas
6 4 0 2 9:8 1 12
L W W L W
4
Guadalajara Chivas
6 3 2 1 9:6 3 11
D W W D W
5
Toluca Home
5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W D W L W
6
Club Queretaro
6 3 1 2 9:7 2 10
W L D W W
7
Leon
6 3 1 2 8:6 2 10
D W W W L
8
Puebla
6 3 1 2 9:9 0 10
L W W D L
9
Monterrey
5 3 0 2 12:7 5 9
L W W L W
10
Cruz Azul
6 3 0 3 11:11 0 9
W L L L W
11
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
6 2 2 2 8:8 0 8
L D D W W
12
Necaxa Away
6 2 1 3 8:11 -3 7
L D L L W
13
Atlante FC
6 1 3 2 6:8 -2 6
D L D W D
14
CF Pachuca
6 1 2 3 8:8 0 5
D D L L L
15
Tigres UANL
6 1 2 3 8:10 -2 5
D W L L D
16
Atletico San Luis
5 0 3 2 5:9 -4 3
D L D D L
17
Santos Laguna
6 0 1 5 4:11 -7 1
D L L L L
18
FC Juarez
5 0 0 5 3:15 -12 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)