MEXICO LIGA MX
--.--.---- --:--
Toluca
Match Timeline
Necaxa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
29'
I. Lopez · Assist: J. Gallardo
Toluca
42'
J. Carranza · Assist: A. Pena
Necaxa
🟨
45+4'
R. Martinez
Necaxa
45+5'
E. del Villar · Assist: I. Lopez
Toluca
🟥
45+7'
J. Carranza
Necaxa
🟨
45+7'
A. Oliveros
Necaxa
🔄
46'
J. P. Torres Patino ↔ P. Pedraza
Necaxa
🔄
46'
C. Vargas ↔ M. Zaleta
Necaxa
🔄
46'
J. Ruiz ↔ J. Valencia
Necaxa
57'
L. Jimenez
Toluca
🔄
59'
J. Diaz Price ↔ V. Guzman
Toluca
🔄
59'
I. Lopez ↔ F. Vinas
Toluca
🔄
65'
E. Gutierrez ↔ Helinho
Toluca
🔄
65'
J. Angulo ↔ P. Perez
Toluca
🔄
67'
L. Faravelli ↔ M. Espindola
Necaxa
🟨
80'
A. Oliveros
Necaxa
🟥
80'
A. Oliveros
Necaxa
🔄
85'
D. Leyva ↔ F. Mendez
Necaxa
🔄
90'
A. Vega ↔ A. Briseno
Toluca
🟨
90+7'
F. Romero
Toluca
🟨
90+7'
J. Valencia
Necaxa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70%
Odds 1.12
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.49
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70%
1.12
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.49
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.23
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 46.8%
Draw 23.2%
Necaxa Win 30%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.71
Necaxa1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca Toluca
WWDLW
24 GF / 13 GA
Necaxa Necaxa
WLDWL
13 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
2.18
Average Goals Scored
2.17
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
4
8
Over 2.5
4
7
Shots on Goal
7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca Toluca 11 matches
Necaxa Necaxa 6 matches
Toluca Statistic Necaxa
5 Wins 5
2 Draws 1
4 Losses 0
24 Goals For 13
13 Goals Against 6
2.18 Avg Goals Scored 2.17
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 4
8 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 1
7 Shots On Goal 7
18 Total Shots 14.5
4.44 Corners 7.5
59.7% Ball Possession 64.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 9 times, Necaxa won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:16 from Toluca's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.8%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Necaxa 5-3-2
H2H summary: Toluca wins 9, draws 4, Necaxa wins 2
Stats
Toluca Toluca
Necaxa Necaxa
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 2
15 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 0
75% Ball Possession 25%
25 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Goal 3
12 Shots off Goal 4
6 Blocked Shots 2
15 Shots insidebox 3
10 Shots outsidebox 6
1 Goalkeeper Saves 5
745 Total passes 248
689 Passes accurate 182
1.51 expected_goals 1.32
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 2 🟥

Lineups

Toluca
Formation
Necaxa
Luis García
Luis García
Santiago Simón
Santiago Simón
Federico Pereira
Federico Pereira
Everardo López
Everardo López
Jesús Gallardo
🎯
Jesús Gallardo
Jorge Díaz
Jorge Díaz
Franco Romero
Franco Romero
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
Érick Gutiérrez
Érick Gutiérrez
Alexis Vega
Alexis Vega
Ivan López
🎯
Ivan López
Luis Jimenez
Luis Jimenez
Emilio Rodriguez
Emilio Rodriguez
Raúl Martínez
Raúl Martínez
Alexis Peña
🎯
Alexis Peña
Agustín Oliveros
Agustín Oliveros
Carlos Vargas
Carlos Vargas
Lorenzo Faravelli
Lorenzo Faravelli
Danny Leyva
Danny Leyva
Javier Ruiz
Javier Ruiz
Juan Torres
Juan Torres
Julián Carranza
Julián Carranza
Toluca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Luis García
G
19
Santiago Simón
D
6
Federico Pereira
D
25
Everardo López
⚽ 45+5'
D
20
Jesús Gallardo
🎯 29'
D
29
Jorge Díaz
↓ 59'
M
5
Franco Romero
🟨 90+7'
M
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
↓ 65'
M
35
Érick Gutiérrez
↓ 65'
M
9
Alexis Vega
↓ 90'
M
21
Ivan López
⚽ 29' 🎯 45+5' ↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
7
Víctor Guzmán
↑ 59'
M
16
Federico Viñas
↑ 59'
F
11
Helinho
↑ 65'
F
15
Pavel Pérez
↑ 65'
M
3
Antonio Briseño
↑ 90'
D
1
Hugo Gonzalez
G
4
Bruno Méndez
D
13
Luan
D
17
Brian García
D
24
Fernando Arce Juárez
M
Necaxa 5-3-2
Starting XI
12
Luis Jimenez
⚽ 57'
G
99
Emilio Rodriguez
D
33
Raúl Martínez
🟨 45+4'
D
4
Alexis Peña
🎯 42'
D
3
Agustín Oliveros
🟨 45+7' 🟨 80' 🟥 80'
D
88
Carlos Vargas
↓ 46'
D
8
Lorenzo Faravelli
↓ 67'
M
6
Danny Leyva
↓ 85'
M
10
Javier Ruiz
↓ 46'
M
11
Juan Torres
↓ 46'
F
9
Julián Carranza
⚽ 42' 🟥 45+7'
F
Substitutes
16
Pedro Pedraza
↑ 46'
M
14
Mauro Zaleta
↑ 46'
M
90
Juan Valencia
↑ 46' 🟨 90+7'
F
21
Matías Espíndola
↑ 67'
M
20
Francisco Méndez
↑ 85'
D
1
Christopher Andrade
G
5
Kaiky Naves
D
17
Rogelio Cortéz Pineda
M
27
Miguel Pedroza
F
30
Ricardo Monreal
F
Last matches: Toluca
22.07.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Atlante FC
3
3
D
04.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Cancún
0
1
L
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
30.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
23.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club America
1
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
04.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
1
D
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlas
1
1
D
12.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
2
3
L
Last matches: Necaxa
26.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Monterrey
2
1
W
17.07.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlante FC
2
1
W
04.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Atlas
0
0
D
01.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Correcaminos Uat
6
3
W
20.06.26
Fri
Necaxa
Monarcas
1
0
W
27.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
4
L
23.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Queretaro
1
3
L
04.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Mazatlán
2
1
W
21.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Tijuana
3
0
W
14.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Puebla
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0
1
L
04.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
01.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
1
2
L
22.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Toluca
0
3
L
15.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
FC Juarez
2
1
W
07.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atletico San Luis
4
1
W
31.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club America
0
2
L
17.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Atlas
0
1
L
H2H: Toluca vs Necaxa
22.02.26
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
0
3
W
13.07.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
5
2
W
28.10.24
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
1
3
W
10.02.24
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
3
3
D
02.07.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
0
0
D
30.04.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
0
W
27.12.22
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
0
W
02.07.22
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
1
3
W
05.03.22
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
0
1
W
21.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
1
D
24.01.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
0
W
31.10.20
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
3
2
L
19.01.20
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
3
L
29.08.19
H2H
Necaxa
Toluca
1
1
D
Last matches: Toluca
22.07.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
2
L
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlas
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
3
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Tijuana
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
15.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Santos Laguna
3
1
W
15.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Tigres UANL
2
1
W
07.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Monterrey
3
2
W
30.11.25
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
0
0
D
09.11.25
Lig
Toluca
Club America
2
0
W
27.10.25
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
2
2
D
18.10.25
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
4
0
W
H2H at home: Toluca
13.07.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
5
2
W
02.07.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
0
0
D
30.04.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
0
W
27.12.22
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
0
W
21.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
1
D
24.01.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
0
W
19.01.20
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
3
L
Last matches: Necaxa
04.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Atlas
0
0
D
01.07.26
Fri
Necaxa
Correcaminos Uat
6
3
W
27.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Cruz Azul
1
4
L
11.04.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club Queretaro
1
3
L
14.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Puebla
0
0
D
04.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
01.03.26
Lig
Necaxa
Leon
1
2
L
15.02.26
Lig
Necaxa
FC Juarez
2
1
W
31.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Club America
0
2
L
11.01.26
Lig
Necaxa
Santos Laguna
3
1
W
03.01.26
Fri
Necaxa
Leon
2
1
W
08.11.25
Lig
Necaxa
Mazatlán
1
1
D
27.10.25
Lig
Necaxa
Atletico San Luis
4
3
W
18.10.25
Lig
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
3
5
L
27.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
Atlas
2
3
L
24.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
Guadalajara Chivas
1
3
L
01.09.25
Lig
Necaxa
Club Tijuana
0
3
L
24.08.25
Lig
Necaxa
Monterrey
0
3
L
11.08.25
Lig
Necaxa
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
1
D
13.07.25
Lig
Necaxa
Toluca
1
3
L
H2H away: Necaxa
13.07.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
1
L
08.03.25
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
5
2
L
02.07.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
0
0
D
30.04.23
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
3
0
L
27.12.22
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
0
L
21.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
1
1
D
24.01.21
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
0
L
19.01.20
H2H
Toluca
Necaxa
2
3
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.26
Draw 4.81
Home 1.49
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.78
Draw 2.78
Home 1.97
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.15
Over 2.5 1.49
Over 2.75 1.59
Over 3.0 1.75
Over 3.25 1.99
Over 3.5 2.21
Over 3.75 2.55
Over 4.5 3.82
Over 5.5 7.22
Under 1.5 5.90
Under 2.5 2.72
Under 2.75 2.46
Under 3.0 2.17
Under 3.25 1.90
Under 3.5 1.72
Under 3.75 1.56
Under 4.5 1.28
Under 5.5 1.11
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 4.75
Home 1.48
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.62
Home 1.91
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.88
Home 1.73
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.14
Over 2.5 1.50
Over 3.5 2.20
Over 4.5 3.75
Over 5.5 7.00
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 29.00
Over 8.5 51.00
Under 0.5 19.00
Under 1.5 5.50
Under 2.5 2.50
Under 3.5 1.62
Under 4.5 1.25
Under 5.5 1.10
Under 6.5 1.03
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.18
Draw 4.50
Home 1.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.94
Draw 2.45
Home 1.91
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.47
Draw 3.04
Home 1.70
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.5 1.09
Over 1.75 1.11
Over 2.0 1.14
Over 2.25 1.28
Over 2.5 1.41
Over 2.75 1.52
Over 3.0 1.66
Over 3.25 1.93
Over 3.5 2.15
Over 3.75 2.38
Over 4.0 2.89
Over 4.25 3.17
Over 4.5 3.42
Over 4.75 4.25
Over 5.0 5.70
Over 5.25 6.00
Over 5.5 6.35
Over 6.5 15.00
Over 7.5 29.00
Over 8.5 50.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.0 11.00
Under 1.5 5.35
Under 1.75 4.89
Under 2.0 4.40
Under 2.25 3.08
Under 2.5 2.52
Under 2.75 2.29
Under 3.0 2.03
Under 3.25 1.83
Under 3.5 1.67
Under 3.75 1.48
Under 4.0 1.33
Under 4.25 1.27
Under 4.5 1.23
Under 4.75 1.15
Under 5.0 1.08
Under 5.25 1.06
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.03
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.10
Draw 4.35
Home 1.46
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.20
Draw 2.60
Home 1.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.80
Draw 3.10
Home 1.77
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.46
Over 2.75 1.56
Over 3.0 1.71
Over 3.25 1.93
Over 3.5 2.15
Over 3.75 2.48
Over 4.0 3.05
Over 4.5 3.65
Over 5.5 6.75
Under 1.5 5.50
Under 2.5 2.60
Under 2.75 2.33
Under 3.0 2.07
Under 3.25 1.82
Under 3.5 1.66
Under 3.75 1.50
Under 4.0 1.36
Under 4.5 1.24
Under 5.5 1.07

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 3 2 1 0 5:1 4 7
W D W
2 3 2 1 0 4:1 3 7
D W W
3 3 2 0 1 6:3 3 6
W L W
4 3 2 0 1 7:5 2 6
W W L
5 3 2 0 1 6:4 2 6
W L W
6 3 2 0 1 7:6 1 6
L W W
7 3 2 0 1 5:4 1 6
W W L
8 3 2 0 1 5:5 0 6
L W W
9 3 2 0 1 4:4 0 6
L W W
10 3 1 1 1 5:5 0 4
W D L
11 3 1 1 1 3:3 0 4
D L W
12 3 1 1 1 2:3 -1 4
D W L
13 3 1 0 2 4:3 1 3
L L W
14 3 1 0 2 3:4 -1 3
W L L
15 3 0 2 1 4:5 -1 2
D D L
16 3 0 1 2 5:8 -3 1
L D L
17 3 0 0 3 2:7 -5 0
L L L
18 3 0 0 3 1:7 -6 0
L L L