Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
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| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|
Probability Distribution
Swansea Win 0%
Draw 0%
Derby Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Swansea1.4
Derby1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Swansea
WWDLW
4 GF / 4 GA
Derby
WLDWL
3 GF / 3 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
1
BTTS Yes
1
1
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Swansea
3 matches
Derby
2 matches
| Swansea | Statistic | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wins | 1 |
| 1 | Draws | 0 |
| 1 | Losses | 1 |
| 4 | Goals For | 3 |
| 4 | Goals Against | 3 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.5 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.5 |
| 1 | BTTS Yes | 1 |
| 3 | Over 1.5 | 2 |
| 1 | Over 2.5 | 1 |
| 1 | Over 3.5 | 1 |
| 1 | Clean Sheets | 1 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 0 |
| 0 | Shots On Goal | 0 |
| 0 | Total Shots | 0 |
| 0 | Corners | 0 |
| 0% | Ball Possession | 0% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Swansea won 4 times, Derby won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:15 from Swansea's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.
Predicted formations: Swansea 4-2-3-1 / Derby 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Swansea wins 4, draws 3, Derby wins 5
Last matches: Swansea
24.07.26
Fri
Swansea
Udinese
2
0
W
21.07.26
Fri
Swansea
VfL Bochum
0
2
L
18.07.26
Fri
Swansea
Holstein Kiel
2
2
D
02.05.26
Cha
Swansea
Charlton
3
1
W
25.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Norwich
1
1
D
21.04.26
Cha
Swansea
QPR
2
1
W
18.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Southampton
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Leicester
1
0
W
06.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Sheffield Utd
3
3
D
21.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Coventry
0
3
L
13.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Wrexham
0
2
L
10.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Portsmouth
2
1
W
07.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Stoke City
2
0
W
28.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Ipswich
0
3
L
24.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Preston
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Bristol City
1
0
W
14.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Derby
0
2
L
08.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Sheffield Wednesday
4
0
W
31.01.26
Cha
Swansea
Watford
2
0
W
Last matches: Derby
24.07.26
Fri
Derby
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
21.02.26
Cha
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Derby
Ipswich
1
2
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
23.01.26
Cha
Derby
West Brom
1
1
D
H2H: Swansea vs Derby
14.02.26
H2H
Derby
Swansea
2
0
L
25.11.25
H2H
Swansea
Derby
1
2
L
05.04.25
H2H
Swansea
Derby
1
0
W
27.11.24
H2H
Derby
Swansea
1
2
W
09.04.22
H2H
Swansea
Derby
2
1
W
02.10.21
H2H
Derby
Swansea
0
0
D
01.05.21
H2H
Swansea
Derby
2
1
W
16.12.20
H2H
Derby
Swansea
2
0
L
08.02.20
H2H
Swansea
Derby
2
3
L
10.08.19
H2H
Derby
Swansea
0
0
D
01.05.19
H2H
Swansea
Derby
1
1
D
01.12.18
H2H
Derby
Swansea
2
1
L
Last matches: Swansea
24.07.26
Fri
Swansea
Udinese
2
0
W
21.07.26
Fri
Swansea
VfL Bochum
0
2
L
18.07.26
Fri
Swansea
Holstein Kiel
2
2
D
02.05.26
Cha
Swansea
Charlton
3
1
W
18.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Swansea
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
21.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Coventry
0
3
L
07.03.26
Cha
Swansea
Stoke City
2
0
W
24.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Preston
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Bristol City
1
0
W
08.02.26
Cha
Swansea
Sheffield Wednesday
4
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Swansea
Blackburn
3
1
W
17.01.26
Cha
Swansea
Birmingham
1
1
D
11.01.26
FA
Swansea
West Brom
1
1
D
01.01.26
Cha
Swansea
West Brom
1
0
W
19.12.25
Cha
Swansea
Wrexham
2
1
W
09.12.25
Cha
Swansea
Portsmouth
1
0
W
06.12.25
Cha
Swansea
Oxford United
2
0
W
25.11.25
Cha
Swansea
Derby
1
2
L
08.11.25
Cha
Swansea
Ipswich
1
4
L
H2H at home: Swansea
25.11.25
H2H
Swansea
Derby
1
2
L
05.04.25
H2H
Swansea
Derby
1
0
W
09.04.22
H2H
Swansea
Derby
2
1
W
01.05.21
H2H
Swansea
Derby
2
1
W
08.02.20
H2H
Swansea
Derby
2
3
L
01.05.19
H2H
Swansea
Derby
1
1
D
Last matches: Derby
24.07.26
Fri
Derby
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
21.02.26
Cha
Derby
Watford
0
2
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
2
1
W
17.01.26
Cha
Derby
Preston
1
0
W
29.12.25
Cha
Derby
Leicester
1
2
L
26.12.25
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
1
D
15.12.25
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
3
0
W
29.11.25
Cha
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
2
L
25.11.25
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
1
W
08.11.25
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
2
1
W
01.11.25
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
3
1
W
H2H away: Derby
25.11.25
H2H
Swansea
Derby
1
2
W
05.04.25
H2H
Swansea
Derby
1
0
L
09.04.22
H2H
Swansea
Derby
2
1
L
01.05.21
H2H
Swansea
Derby
2
1
L
08.02.20
H2H
Swansea
Derby
2
3
W
01.05.19
H2H
Swansea
Derby
1
1
D