AUSTRIA BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Merkur-Arena
Referee: H. Lechner
Sturm Graz
Match Timeline
Rapid Vienna
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
22'
Yusuf Demir
Rapid Vienna
🔄
60'
P. Dahl ↔ L. Grgic
Rapid Vienna
🔄
60'
N. Wurmbrand ↔ A. Ahoussou
Rapid Vienna
🔄
62'
L. Weinhandl ↔ G. Mamageishvili
Sturm Graz
🔄
62'
M. Malone ↔ A. Kayombo
Sturm Graz
🔄
72'
S. Jatta ↔ B. Beganovic
Sturm Graz
🔄
72'
J. Hodl ↔ J. Gazibegovic
Sturm Graz
🔄
84'
E. Karic ↔ S. Hierlander
Sturm Graz
🔄
86'
A. Weimann ↔ T. Gulliksen
Rapid Vienna
88'
G. Mamageishvili · Assist: J. Gazibegovic
Sturm Graz
90'
S. Hierlander
Sturm Graz

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sturm Graz Win 44.4%
Draw 16.7%
Rapid Vienna Win 38.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sturm Graz1.4
Rapid Vienna1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
WWDLW
64 GF / 56 GA
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna
WLDWL
56 GF / 65 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.19
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
24
BTTS Yes
25
21
Over 2.5
21
4.39
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 45 matches
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 47 matches
Sturm Graz Statistic Rapid Vienna
20 Wins 18
10 Draws 11
15 Losses 18
64 Goals For 56
56 Goals Against 65
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
24 BTTS Yes 25
35 Over 1.5 37
21 Over 2.5 21
12 Over 3.5 10
15 Clean Sheets 12
8 Failed To Score 11
4.39 Shots On Goal 3.67
14.29 Total Shots 11.95
4.76 Corners 5.28
51.5% Ball Possession 53%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Rapid Vienna arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sturm Graz expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Rapid Vienna in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rapid Vienna having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rapid Vienna. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Sturm Graz Analysis

Placed 1 with 38 points from 22 outings, Sturm Graz continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, while the 33:26 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on O. Kiteishvili (15 goals), S. Jatta (4 goals), B. Beganovic (3 goals), with creative support from T. Horvat (5 assists), O. Kiteishvili (4 assists), Emir Karić (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Rapid Vienna Analysis

With 33 points from 22 games and a place of 5, Rapid Vienna still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 26:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Kara (6 goals), Bendegúz Bolla (4 goals), Matthias Seidl (4 goals), with creative support from Matthias Seidl (6 assists), P. Dahl (4 assists), C. M'Buyi (3 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sturm Graz won 7 times, Rapid Vienna won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:16 from Sturm Graz's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.3%)
Predicted formations: Sturm Graz 4-2-3-1 / Rapid Vienna 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Sturm Graz wins 7, draws 3, Rapid Vienna wins 5
Stats
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
12
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
9 Corner Kicks 3
12 Fouls 5
2 Offsides 1
67% Ball Possession 33%
22 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Goal 1
12 Shots off Goal 2
2 Blocked Shots 1
14 Shots insidebox 4
8 Shots outsidebox 0
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
437 Total passes 226
382 Passes accurate 151
2.75 expected_goals 0.20
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Sturm Graz
Formation
Rapid Vienna
D. Khudyakov
D. Khudyakov
A. Vallci
A. Vallci
J. Mitchell
J. Mitchell
P. Koller
P. Koller
J. Hodl
J. Hodl
L. Weinhandl
L. Weinhandl
J. Gorenc Stankovic
J. Gorenc Stankovic
E. Karic
E. Karic
O. Kiteishvili
O. Kiteishvili
M. Malone
M. Malone
S. Jatta
S. Jatta
N. Hedl
N. Hedl
J. M. Scholler
J. M. Scholler
N. Cvetkovic
N. Cvetkovic
S. Raux Yao
S. Raux Yao
N. Wurmbrand
N. Wurmbrand
R. Amane
R. Amane
A. Weimann
A. Weimann
B. Bolla
B. Bolla
Y. Demir
Y. Demir
P. Dahl
P. Dahl
E. Kara
E. Kara
Sturm Graz 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
53
D. Khudyakov
G
5
A. Vallci
D
2
J. Mitchell
D
30
P. Koller
D
43
J. Hodl
↓ 72'
M
39
L. Weinhandl
↓ 62'
M
4
J. Gorenc Stankovic
M
17
E. Karic
↓ 84'
M
10
O. Kiteishvili
F
77
M. Malone
↓ 62'
F
20
S. Jatta
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
40
M. Bignetti
G
15
G. Mamageishvili
⚽ 88' ↑ 62'
M
80
R. Fosso
M
26
B. Beganovic
↑ 72'
F
8
F. Rozga
25
S. Hierlander
⚽ 90' ↑ 84'
M
22
J. Gazibegovic
🎯 88' ↑ 72'
D
11
A. Kayombo
↑ 62'
F
23
A. Malic
D
Rapid Vienna 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
N. Hedl
G
4
J. M. Scholler
D
55
N. Cvetkovic
D
6
S. Raux Yao
D
15
N. Wurmbrand
↓ 60'
M
29
R. Amane
M
26
A. Weimann
↓ 86'
M
77
B. Bolla
M
22
Y. Demir
🟥 22'
F
10
P. Dahl
↓ 60'
F
9
E. Kara
F
Substitutes
25
P. Gartler
G
21
L. Schaub
M
16
T. Borkeeiet
M
90
J. Antiste
F
61
F. Demir
D
8
L. Grgic
↑ 60'
M
7
M. Tilio
F
17
T. Gulliksen
↑ 86'
M
20
A. Ahoussou
↑ 60'
D
Last matches: Sturm Graz
10.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
4
2
W
03.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
26.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
1
1
D
22.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
1
D
19.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
1
D
12.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
0
0
D
05.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
First Vienna
1
1
D
20.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
15.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
5
2
W
08.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
2
0
W
01.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Wolfsberger AC
2
2
D
22.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
FC BW Linz
1
0
W
14.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
0
1
L
08.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Ried
1
0
W
01.02.26
Cup
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
1
3
L
29.01.26
UEF
Sturm Graz
Brann
1
0
W
22.01.26
UEF
Sturm Graz
Feyenoord
0
3
L
14.01.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
FC Copenhagen
4
4
D
08.01.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
Club Brugge KV
2
2
D
Last matches: Rapid Vienna
25.05.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Ried
3
0
W
22.05.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Ried
1
2
L
10.05.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
04.05.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
1
3
L
26.04.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Red Bull Salzburg
1
0
W
22.04.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
TSV Hartberg
0
2
L
19.04.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
TSV Hartberg
2
2
D
12.04.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
1
1
D
05.04.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
0
2
L
22.03.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
4
2
W
15.03.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Red Bull Salzburg
1
0
W
08.03.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Red Bull Salzburg
1
0
W
01.03.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
SCR Altach
1
1
D
21.02.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Wolfsberger AC
2
0
W
15.02.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
07.02.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
TSV Hartberg
1
1
D
31.01.26
Cup
Rapid Vienna
Ried
0
3
L
24.01.26
Fri
Rapid Vienna
Mura
5
2
W
24.01.26
Fri
Rapid Vienna
First Vienna
1
0
W
18.01.26
Fri
Rapid Vienna
Gyori ETO FC
0
2
L
H2H: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna
17.05.26
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
05.04.26
H2H
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
0
2
W
02.11.25
H2H
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
2
1
L
10.08.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
2
L
18.05.25
H2H
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
3
1
L
04.04.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
02.11.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
1
D
04.08.24
H2H
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
1
0
L
01.05.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
1
W
24.04.24
H2H
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
1
3
W
19.04.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
0
W
18.02.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
1
D
24.09.23
H2H
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
28.05.23
H2H
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
3
2
L
30.04.23
H2H
Rapid Vienna
Sturm Graz
0
2
W
Last matches: Sturm Graz
26.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
1
1
D
22.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
1
D
12.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
First Vienna
1
1
D
20.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
08.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
2
0
W
22.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
FC BW Linz
1
0
W
08.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Ried
1
0
W
29.01.26
UEF
Sturm Graz
Brann
1
0
W
14.01.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
FC Copenhagen
4
4
D
11.12.25
UEF
Sturm Graz
FK Crvena Zvezda
0
1
L
07.12.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Grazer AK
2
1
W
03.12.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
1
3
L
23.11.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
3
L
09.11.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
06.11.25
UEF
Sturm Graz
Nottingham Forest
0
0
D
26.10.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Wolfsberger AC
1
3
L
02.10.25
UEF
Sturm Graz
Rangers
2
1
W
28.09.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
1
0
W
14.09.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
0
1
L
H2H at home: Sturm Graz
17.05.26
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
10.08.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
2
L
04.04.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
02.11.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
1
D
01.05.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
1
W
19.04.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
0
W
18.02.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
1
D
Last matches: Rapid Vienna
22.05.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Ried
1
2
L
04.05.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
1
3
L
19.04.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
TSV Hartberg
2
2
D
12.04.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
1
1
D
15.03.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Red Bull Salzburg
1
0
W
01.03.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
SCR Altach
1
1
D
15.02.26
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
31.01.26
Cup
Rapid Vienna
Ried
0
3
L
18.12.25
UEF
Rapid Vienna
Zrinjski
1
1
D
14.12.25
Bun
Rapid Vienna
FC BW Linz
1
1
D
30.11.25
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Lask Linz
0
3
L
27.11.25
UEF
Rapid Vienna
Raków Częstochowa
1
4
L
09.11.25
Bun
Rapid Vienna
WSG Wattens
1
1
D
29.10.25
Cup
Rapid Vienna
SKN ST. Polten
1
0
W
26.10.25
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Ried
2
0
W
05.10.25
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Red Bull Salzburg
1
2
L
02.10.25
UEF
Rapid Vienna
Lech Poznan
1
4
L
21.09.25
Bun
Rapid Vienna
Grazer AK
1
1
D
17.09.25
Cup
Rapid Vienna
Oberwart
2
1
W
31.08.25
Bun
Rapid Vienna
TSV Hartberg
1
0
W
H2H away: Rapid Vienna
17.05.26
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
L
10.08.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
2
W
04.04.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
L
02.11.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
1
D
01.05.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
1
L
19.04.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
0
L
18.02.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
1
1
D

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 7 8 56:42 14 39
?
2 32 16 8 8 51:35 16 37
?
3 32 13 9 10 56:41 15 29
?
4 32 14 5 13 45:50 -5 29
?
5 32 12 8 12 36:41 -5 27
?
6 32 10 12 10 40:40 0 25
?
7 32 12 6 14 38:42 -4 28
?
8 32 11 8 13 41:42 -1 28
?
9 32 9 10 13 42:45 -3 27
?
10 32 10 12 10 36:39 -3 27
?
11 32 10 10 12 40:52 -12 24
?
12 32 8 5 19 37:49 -12 21
?