NORWAY ELITESERIEN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.4%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Start Win 58.4%
Draw 11.3%
Fredrikstad Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Start1.27
Fredrikstad1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Start Start
WWDLW
27 GF / 53 GA
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
WLDWL
34 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.36
2.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
14
BTTS Yes
16
15
Over 2.5
14
3.43
Shots on Goal
3.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Start Start 25 matches
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 25 matches
Start Statistic Fredrikstad
5 Wins 10
5 Draws 6
15 Losses 9
27 Goals For 34
53 Goals Against 39
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
2.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
14 BTTS Yes 16
24 Over 1.5 21
15 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 10
4 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 6
3.43 Shots On Goal 3.6
12.07 Total Shots 11.13
3.43 Corners 4.27
40.3% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fredrikstad. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Start expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Fredrikstad in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fredrikstad having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Start Analysis

Start approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 10 points from 15 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 16:34 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jesper Cornelius (4 goals), Tom Strannegård (2 goals), Hakon Lorentzen (2 goals), with creative support from Tom Strannegård (3 assists), Hakon Lorentzen (3 assists), Erlend Segberg (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fredrikstad Analysis

With 14 points from 14 games and a place of 12, Fredrikstad still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats with a 15:27 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Daniel Eid (2 goals), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (2 goals), Fredrik Holmé (1 goals), with creative support from Daniel Eid (1 assists), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (1 assists), Fredrik Holmé (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Start won 1 times, Fredrikstad won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:20 from Start's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.56 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
Predicted formations: Start 5-3-2 / Fredrikstad 3-4-3
H2H summary: Start wins 1, draws 3, Fredrikstad wins 5
Last matches: Start
01.08.26
Eli
Start
Viking
0
3
L
25.07.26
Eli
Start
Kristiansund BK
2
1
W
18.07.26
Eli
Start
Rosenborg
0
3
L
12.07.26
Eli
Start
Brann
1
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Start
Bodo/Glimt
0
4
L
29.05.26
Eli
Start
Fredrikstad
1
2
L
25.05.26
Eli
Start
Valerenga
2
0
W
20.05.26
Eli
Start
Bodo/Glimt
1
4
L
16.05.26
Eli
Start
Viking
3
6
L
03.05.26
Eli
Start
Tromso
1
1
D
30.04.26
Eli
Start
Bodo/Glimt
0
5
L
26.04.26
Eli
Start
Ham-Kam
1
2
L
19.04.26
Eli
Start
Molde
1
1
D
11.04.26
Eli
Start
Lillestrom
1
3
L
06.04.26
Eli
Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Start
Tromso
0
1
L
21.03.26
Eli
Start
Aalesund
1
1
D
15.03.26
Eli
Start
KFUM Oslo
0
2
L
08.03.26
Fri
Start
Sandefjord
2
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Start
Bryne
2
2
D
Last matches: Fredrikstad
01.08.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Sandefjord
1
0
W
27.07.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Rosenborg
0
4
L
17.07.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Bodo/Glimt
0
1
L
11.07.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
0
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Valerenga
1
3
L
28.06.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
IF Elfsborg
0
0
D
20.06.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Start
2
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Sandefjord
1
1
D
16.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam
2
1
W
09.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
2
L
02.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Brann
1
3
L
25.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Viking
1
2
L
19.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Kristiansund BK
0
2
L
12.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Valerenga
1
1
D
07.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Aalesund
3
2
W
22.03.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
KFUM Oslo
3
1
W
15.03.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Tromso
0
4
L
28.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
ODD Ballklubb
4
1
W
22.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Aalesund
3
2
W
H2H: Start vs Fredrikstad
29.05.26
H2H
Fredrikstad
Start
2
1
L
03.09.23
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
2
2
D
11.06.23
H2H
Fredrikstad
Start
3
1
L
31.07.22
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
1
0
W
18.04.22
H2H
Fredrikstad
Start
1
0
L
26.09.21
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
2
6
L
18.08.21
H2H
Fredrikstad
Start
2
2
D
17.09.17
H2H
Fredrikstad
Start
2
1
L
02.04.17
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
2
2
D
Last matches: Start
01.08.26
Eli
Start
Viking
0
3
L
18.07.26
Eli
Start
Rosenborg
0
3
L
25.05.26
Eli
Start
Valerenga
2
0
W
20.05.26
Eli
Start
Bodo/Glimt
1
4
L
03.05.26
Eli
Start
Tromso
1
1
D
19.04.26
Eli
Start
Molde
1
1
D
21.03.26
Eli
Start
Aalesund
1
1
D
17.02.26
Fri
Start
Donn
2
0
W
03.02.26
Fri
Start
Vindbjart
2
0
W
H2H at home: Start
03.09.23
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
2
2
D
31.07.22
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
1
0
W
26.09.21
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
2
6
L
02.04.17
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
2
2
D
Last matches: Fredrikstad
27.07.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Rosenborg
0
4
L
17.07.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Bodo/Glimt
0
1
L
04.07.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Valerenga
1
3
L
25.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Sandefjord
1
1
D
09.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
2
L
02.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Brann
1
3
L
19.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Kristiansund BK
0
2
L
07.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Aalesund
3
2
W
15.03.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Tromso
0
4
L
22.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Aalesund
3
2
W
11.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Toronto FC
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
IF Elfsborg
2
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
2
2
D
21.08.25
UEF
Fredrikstad
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
14.08.25
UEF
Fredrikstad
FC Midtjylland
0
2
L
H2H away: Fredrikstad
03.09.23
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
2
2
D
31.07.22
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
1
0
L
26.09.21
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
2
6
W
02.04.17
H2H
Start
Fredrikstad
2
2
D

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 12 2 2 41:11 30 38
W W W W W
2 15 12 1 2 37:14 23 37
W D W W L
3 16 10 4 2 32:17 15 34
W W W D D
4 15 8 1 6 22:18 4 25
L L W W L
5 15 7 3 5 28:22 6 24
D W L D W
6 16 7 1 8 33:27 6 22
W L W W L
7 15 6 4 5 18:19 -1 22
D W D W W
8 15 6 3 6 23:26 -3 21
W L L L D
9 15 6 2 7 22:27 -5 20
L W W L W
10 15 5 3 7 21:21 0 18
L W W W D
11 15 5 2 8 16:27 -11 17
W L L L W
12 15 4 3 8 13:21 -8 15
L L L D L
13 15 4 3 8 17:26 -9 15
W L L L D
14 15 2 7 6 21:35 -14 13
L D L D D
15 15 3 3 9 13:25 -12 12
L L D L L
16
Start Home
16 2 4 10 16:37 -21 10
L W L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen