NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Sparebanken Sør Arena
Referee: M. Lien
Start
Match Timeline
Fredrikstad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
29'
G. Wesseh · Assist: S. Leach
Fredrikstad
🔄
46'
T. Strannegard ↔ D. Dashaev
Start
🔄
52'
E. Reitan ↔ A. Ujkani
Start
🔄
58'
G. Wesseh ↔ B. Faraas
Fredrikstad
🔄
60'
F. Ghebreyohannes ↔ S. Rafn
Fredrikstad
🔄
63'
J. Ampofo ↔ M. Ugland
Start
🔄
64'
S. Leach ↔ S. Laghzaoui
Fredrikstad
🔄
71'
I. Amundsen ↔ S. Owusu
Fredrikstad
🔄
83'
J. Husebo ↔ F. Palerud
Start
🔄
83'
J. Cornelius ↔ S. Samuyiwa
Start

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.4%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Start Win 58.4%
Draw 11.3%
Fredrikstad Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Start1.27
Fredrikstad1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Start Start
WWDLW
27 GF / 53 GA
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
WLDWL
34 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.36
2.12
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
14
BTTS Yes
16
15
Over 2.5
14
3.43
Shots on Goal
3.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Start Start 25 matches
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 25 matches
Start Statistic Fredrikstad
5 Wins 10
5 Draws 6
15 Losses 9
27 Goals For 34
53 Goals Against 39
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
2.12 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
14 BTTS Yes 16
24 Over 1.5 21
15 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 10
4 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 6
3.43 Shots On Goal 3.6
12.07 Total Shots 11.13
3.43 Corners 4.27
40.3% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fredrikstad. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Start expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Fredrikstad in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fredrikstad having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Start Analysis

Start approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 10 points from 15 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 4 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 16:34 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jesper Cornelius (4 goals), Tom Strannegård (2 goals), Hakon Lorentzen (2 goals), with creative support from Tom Strannegård (3 assists), Hakon Lorentzen (3 assists), Erlend Segberg (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fredrikstad Analysis

With 14 points from 14 games and a place of 12, Fredrikstad still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats with a 15:27 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Daniel Eid (2 goals), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (2 goals), Fredrik Holmé (1 goals), with creative support from Daniel Eid (1 assists), Oskar Øhlenschlaeger (1 assists), Fredrik Holmé (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Start won 1 times, Fredrikstad won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:21 from Start's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
Predicted formations: Start 5-3-2 / Fredrikstad 3-4-3
Missing players: Start 5, Fredrikstad 3
H2H summary: Start wins 1, draws 3, Fredrikstad wins 6

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 2 2 47:14 33 44
W W W W W
2 18 14 1 3 42:18 24 43
W L W W D
3 18 10 5 3 34:20 14 35
D L W W W
4 18 9 3 6 36:29 7 30
W W L D W
5 18 8 2 8 36:27 9 26
D W W L W
6 18 8 2 8 24:25 -1 26
L D L L L
7 18 8 2 8 22:28 -6 26
W W W W L
8 18 7 3 8 27:26 1 24
L W W L W
9 18 6 5 7 20:23 -3 23
D L L D W
10 18 6 5 7 26:32 -6 23
D L D W L
11 18 6 3 9 31:38 -7 21
L D L L W
12 18 5 4 9 15:23 -8 19
D W L L L
13 18 5 4 9 20:31 -11 19
L D W W L
14 18 4 4 10 17:29 -12 16
D L W L L
15 18 2 9 7 28:43 -15 15
L D D L D
16
Start Home
18 3 4 11 20:39 -19 13
W L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
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Relegation - OBOS-ligaen