IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Richmond Park
Referee: R. Harvey
St Patrick's Athl.
Match Timeline
Waterford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
J. Mahon · Assist: T. Lonergan
Waterford
🟨
7'
Samuel Glenfield
Waterford
45'
C. Forrester
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
46'
S. Glenfield ↔ L. Heeney
Waterford
57'
Z. Elbouzedi
St Patrick's Athl.
60'
Z. Elbouzedi · Assist: K. Leavy
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
68'
D. McMenamy ↔ W. Johnson
Waterford
🔄
75'
J. Houston ↔ J. Faria
Waterford
77'
R. Edmondson · Assist: Z. Elbouzedi
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
78'
K. Leavy ↔ J. Lennon
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
79'
R. Edmondson ↔ M. A. Mata
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
79'
C. Forrester ↔ R. Palmer
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
83'
C. Noonan ↔ J. Voilas
Waterford
🔄
84'
Z. Elbouzedi ↔ A. Breslin
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
84'
P. Amond ↔ C. Carty
Waterford
🔄
87'
B. Baggley ↔ S. Rooney
St Patrick's Athl.

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
St Patrick's Athl. Win 100%
Draw 0%
Waterford Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
St Patrick's Athl.1.82
Waterford1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WWDLW
31 GF / 15 GA
Waterford Waterford
WLDWL
25 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.82
Average Goals Scored
1.19
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
8
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
9
5.6
Shots on Goal
3.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 17 matches
Waterford Waterford 21 matches
St Patrick's Athl. Statistic Waterford
9 Wins 5
5 Draws 6
3 Losses 10
31 Goals For 25
15 Goals Against 38
1.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
8 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 8
5.6 Shots On Goal 3.14
16.8 Total Shots 11.64
5.33 Corners 5.29
53.1% Ball Possession 41%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around St Patrick's Athl.'s more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St Patrick's Athl. expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Waterford in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Waterford having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. St Patrick's Athl. arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 28 points compared to Waterford in 10 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Waterford.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 28 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 27:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Edmondson (7 goals), K. Leavy (4 goals), A. Keena (3 goals), with creative support from K. Leavy (2 assists), J. Lennon (2 assists), Z. Elbouzedi (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford are currently 10 in the standings with 6 points from 14 matches. The record of 0 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 12:28 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Lonergan (4 goals), P. Amond (3 goals), John Mahon (2 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), Dean McMenamy (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, St Patrick's Athl. won 7 times, Waterford won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:15 from St Patrick's Athl.'s perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: St Patrick's Athl. 4-4-2 / Waterford 5-3-2
H2H summary: St Patrick's Athl. wins 7, draws 5, Waterford wins 3
Stats
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford Waterford
Shots on Goal
10
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
7 Corner Kicks 5
8 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1
69% Ball Possession 31%
23 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Goal 4
10 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 4
16 Shots insidebox 8
7 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 6
486 Total passes 215
409 Passes accurate 142
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

St Patrick's Athl.
Formation
Waterford
J. Anang
J. Anang
J. Redmond
J. Redmond
S. Hoare
S. Hoare
L. Turner
L. Turner
J. Brown
J. Brown
D. Nugent
D. Nugent
B. Baggley
B. Baggley
Z. Elbouzedi
⚽ 2 🎯
Z. Elbouzedi
K. Leavy
🎯
K. Leavy
R. Edmondson
R. Edmondson
C. Forrester
C. Forrester
A. Doherty
A. Doherty
J. Houston
J. Houston
H. Cann
H. Cann
K. Long
K. Long
J. Mahon
J. Mahon
B. Couto
B. Couto
C. Noonan
C. Noonan
S. Glenfield
S. Glenfield
D. McMenamy
D. McMenamy
P. Amond
P. Amond
T. Lonergan
🎯
T. Lonergan
St Patrick's Athl. 3-4-3
Starting XI
94
J. Anang
G
4
J. Redmond
D
2
S. Hoare
D
24
L. Turner
D
23
J. Brown
M
16
D. Nugent
M
19
B. Baggley
↓ 87'
M
7
Z. Elbouzedi
⚽ 57' ⚽ 60' 🎯 77' ↓ 84'
M
10
K. Leavy
🎯 60' ↓ 78'
F
27
R. Edmondson
⚽ 77' ↓ 79'
F
8
C. Forrester
⚽ 45' ↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
49
S. Molloy
G
11
J. McClelland
F
6
J. Lennon
↑ 78'
M
35
S. Rooney
↑ 87'
F
3
A. Breslin
↑ 84'
D
18
M. A. Mata
↑ 79'
F
17
R. Palmer
↑ 79'
M
5
T. Grivosti
D
42
G. Nzingo
M
Waterford 5-3-2
Starting XI
21
A. Doherty
G
2
J. Houston
↓ 75'
D
16
H. Cann
D
13
K. Long
D
5
J. Mahon
⚽ 5'
D
3
B. Couto
D
10
C. Noonan
↓ 83'
M
19
S. Glenfield
↓ 46' 🟨 7'
M
27
D. McMenamy
↓ 68'
M
9
P. Amond
↓ 84'
F
18
T. Lonergan
🎯 5'
F
Substitutes
1
S. McMullan
G
11
T. Coyle
F
15
L. Heeney
↑ 46'
M
20
J. Voilas
↑ 83'
F
4
W. Johnson
↑ 68'
17
J. Faria
↑ 75'
M
7
C. Carty
↑ 84'
F
6
C. Barrett
D
22
R. Mansfield
F
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
12.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
2
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
3
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
3
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
06.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
20.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
4
1
W
06.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
3
2
W
02.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
4
0
W
20.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
08.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
0
0
D
23.01.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Cork City
1
1
D
Last matches: Waterford
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
20.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
13.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
2
L
06.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bohemians
1
4
L
H2H: St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford
08.05.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
W
20.03.26
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
W
24.10.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
03.08.25
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
W
23.05.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
2
D
28.03.25
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
2
W
20.09.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
3
0
W
04.07.24
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
L
19.04.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
04.03.24
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
3
1
L
11.02.23
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
W
31.07.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
3
L
19.11.21
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
13.08.21
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
1
W
25.06.21
H2H
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
12.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
2
0
W
15.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
3
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
16.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
4
1
W
02.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
4
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Cork City
1
1
D
07.08.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Beşiktaş
1
4
L
24.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
10.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Hegelmann Litauen
1
0
W
H2H at home: St Patrick's Athl.
08.05.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
W
24.10.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
23.05.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
2
D
20.09.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
3
0
W
19.04.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
31.07.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
3
L
13.08.21
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
1
W
Last matches: Waterford
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
13.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
2
L
23.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Wexford
1
0
W
14.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Cork City
0
1
L
10.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Cobh Ramblers
3
1
W
06.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bray Wanderers
2
1
W
H2H away: Waterford
08.05.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
L
24.10.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
23.05.25
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
2
D
20.09.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
3
0
L
19.04.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
31.07.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
3
W
13.08.21
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
2
1
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 12 4 5 32:19 13 40
L W W L L
2 20 10 5 5 33:17 16 35
W L D L W
3 21 9 7 5 32:25 7 34
L W L W W
4 20 8 8 4 32:28 4 32
W W D W L
5 20 7 8 5 29:27 2 29
W D D W W
6 21 5 10 6 26:24 2 25
W L D D D
7 19 5 6 8 26:30 -4 21
L D L W L
8 20 5 6 9 25:34 -9 21
L D D L L
9 20 5 4 11 15:31 -16 19
L L W L D
10 20 2 8 10 25:40 -15 14
W D L W D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1