BRAZIL SERIE B
11.09.2026 00:30
Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Referee: R. Junior
Sport Recife
Match Timeline
Ponte Preta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
12'
Juan ↔ Carlos María de Pena Bonino
Sport Recife
🟨
24'
Matheus Souza Santos
Ponte Preta
25'
Diego Monteiro Leao
Sport Recife
🟨
27'
LUCAS CUNHA
Ponte Preta
VAR
32'
Biel
Sport Recife
35'
Chrystian Amaral Barletta de Almeida
Sport Recife
VAR
45+5'
Diego Monteiro Leao
Ponte Preta
🔄
45'
Julio De Oliveira ↔ Gustavo Lopes Teles
Ponte Preta
🟨
57'
Edson Lucas Pereira
Sport Recife
🔄
64'
Biel ↔ Patrick de Paula Carreiro
Sport Recife
🔄
64'
Zé Gabriel ↔ Willian Oliveira
Sport Recife
🔄
66'
Murilo Henrique Cavalcante ↔ João Victor Damião Dos Santos
Ponte Preta
🔄
74'
Pedro Henrique Perotti ↔ Dudu Teodora
Sport Recife
🔄
74'
Diego·Hernandez ↔ Fernando Sobral
Sport Recife
🔄
83'
Miguel Morais Silva Santos ↔ Thevyn Dos Anjos Souza
Ponte Preta
🔄
83'
Danilo Barcelos ↔ Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino
Ponte Preta
🟨
84'
Willian Oliveira
Sport Recife
🔄
90+1'
David da Hora ↔ Vitor Ribeiro Fernandes
Ponte Preta

Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.15
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.15
BTTS Yes
62.8%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.40
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70.8%
1.70
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.53
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Sport Recife Win 88%
Draw 6%
Ponte Preta Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sport Recife1.62
Ponte Preta0.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WWDLW
34 GF / 26 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
16 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
0.62
1
Average Goals Conceded
2.08
16
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
12
4.23
Shots on Goal
3.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sport Recife Sport Recife 26 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 26 matches
Sport Recife Statistic Ponte Preta
9 Wins 2
11 Draws 4
6 Losses 20
34 Goals For 16
26 Goals Against 54
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 0.62
1 Avg Goals Conceded 2.08
16 BTTS Yes 12
19 Over 1.5 22
12 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 13
4.23 Shots On Goal 3.23
13.96 Total Shots 10.46
4.88 Corners 4.62
54.3% Ball Possession 42.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Sport Recife's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ponte Preta. Ponte Preta arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Sport Recife arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 38 points compared to Ponte Preta in 20 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sport Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ponte Preta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Sport Recife Analysis

Sport Recife are currently 8 in the standings with 38 points from 25 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 11 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 33:24 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Perotti (7 goals), Chrystian Barletta (6 goals), Biel Fonseca (1 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (3 assists), Biel Fonseca (3 assists), Carlos De Pena (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 10 points from 25 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 19 defeats with a 16:52 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sport Recife won 7 times, Ponte Preta won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:18 from Sport Recife's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Sport Recife 4-2-3-1 / Ponte Preta 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Sport Recife wins 7, draws 5, Ponte Preta wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
3 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
11 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
12 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
13 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
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