BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Referee: B. Machado
Sport Recife
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
21'
Yago Felipe
Sport Recife
🟨
23'
Victor Andrade
Nautico Recife
🟨
26'
Luiz Felipe
Nautico Recife
28'
Chrystian Barletta
Sport Recife
🟨
35'
Zé Marcos
Sport Recife
🔄
45'
Clayson ↔ Iury Castilho
Sport Recife
🟨
49'
Zé Lucas
Sport Recife
🟨
52'
Paulo Sérgio
Nautico Recife
🔄
62'
Yago Felipe ↔ Pedro Martins
Sport Recife
🟨
64'
Iury Castilho
Sport Recife
🔄
67'
Reginaldo ↔ Arnaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
67'
Paulo Sergio ↔ Junior Todinho
Nautico Recife
🔄
67'
Betao ↔ Yuri
Nautico Recife
🔄
76'
Leonai Souza ↔ Vitinho
Nautico Recife
🔄
79'
Ze Lucas ↔ de Pena Carlos
Sport Recife
🔄
79'
Pedro Perotti ↔ Fabio Matheus
Sport Recife
🔄
79'
Biel Fonseca ↔ Ze Gabriel
Sport Recife
83'
Chrystian Barletta · Assist: de Pena Carlos
Sport Recife
🔄
84'
Victor Andrade ↔ Derek
Nautico Recife
🟨
86'
Chrystian Barletta
Sport Recife

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
54.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sport Recife Win 34.5%
Draw 15.9%
Nautico Recife Win 49.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sport Recife1.14
Nautico Recife1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WWDLW
13 GF / 7 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
16 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.6
0.7
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
5
BTTS Yes
3
4
Over 2.5
4
4.1
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sport Recife Sport Recife 10 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 10 matches
Sport Recife Statistic Nautico Recife
5 Wins 6
4 Draws 1
1 Losses 3
13 Goals For 16
7 Goals Against 9
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
0.7 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
5 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 3
4.1 Shots On Goal 3.5
12.5 Total Shots 14
4.3 Corners 5.3
52.4% Ball Possession 58.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nautico Recife look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nautico Recife.

Sport Recife Analysis

Sport Recife approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 16 points after 9 outings. The return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 12:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Pedro Perotti (5 goals), Chrystian Barletta (4 goals), Felipinho (1 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (2 assists), Marlon Douglas (2 assists), Felipinho (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 19 points from 10 games, Nautico Recife bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 16:9, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Vinícius (5 goals), Dodo (3 goals), Junior Todinho (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Dodo (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sport Recife won 7 times, Nautico Recife won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:19 from Sport Recife's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.2%)
Predicted formations: Sport Recife 4-2-3-1 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sport Recife wins 7, draws 5, Nautico Recife wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 25 11 8 6 28:22 6 41
D W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 25 10 7 8 31:32 -1 37
D D L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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