BRAZIL SERIE B
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Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Referee: R. Klein

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.2%
Odds 2.21
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 2.06
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.2%
2.21
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
2.06
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.7%
1.13
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Sport Recife Win 53.2%
Draw 15.5%
Atletico Goianiense Win 31.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sport Recife1.2
Atletico Goianiense0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WWDLW
16 GF / 8 GA
Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense
WLDWL
15 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1.15
0.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
6
BTTS Yes
9
4
Over 2.5
6
3.85
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sport Recife Sport Recife 13 matches
Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 13 matches
Sport Recife Statistic Atletico Goianiense
6 Wins 4
6 Draws 5
1 Losses 4
16 Goals For 15
8 Goals Against 15
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
0.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
6 BTTS Yes 9
8 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 1
7 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 3
3.85 Shots On Goal 4.38
11.69 Total Shots 14.08
4 Corners 6.38
48.5% Ball Possession 46.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Sport Recife's more proactive style and Atletico Goianiense's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico Goianiense. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Sport Recife arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 23 points compared to Atletico Goianiense in 13 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Sport Recife Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 23 points from 12 games, Sport Recife bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 6 wins, 5 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 16:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Chrystian Barletta (6 goals), Pedro Perotti (5 goals), Augusto (1 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (3 assists), de Pena Carlos (2 assists), Marlon Douglas (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Atletico Goianiense Analysis

From their first 12 matches, Atletico Goianiense have collected 16 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 12:12 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Gustavo Coutinho (4 goals), Guilherme (2 goals), Leo Jaco (2 goals), with creative support from Guilherme (3 assists), Geovany Soares (2 assists), Ewerthon (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Sport Recife won 4 times, Atletico Goianiense won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:13 from Sport Recife's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.5%)
Predicted formations: Sport Recife 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Goianiense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sport Recife wins 4, draws 6, Atletico Goianiense wins 4
Last matches: Sport Recife
14.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
São Bernardo
0
0
D
11.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Athletic Club
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Juventude
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
CRB
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Ponte Preta
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Novorizontino
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
America Mineiro
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Avai
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Cuiaba
0
0
D
Last matches: Atletico Goianiense
12.06.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
CRB
3
3
D
08.06.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
America Mineiro
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Goias
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
São Bernardo
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Criciuma
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Ceara
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Juventude
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Avai
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Londrina
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Vila Nova
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Nautico Recife
1
2
L
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Operario-PR
0
1
L
H2H: Sport Recife vs Atletico Goianiense
11.11.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
15.07.23
H2H
Atletico Goianiense
Sport Recife
3
1
L
31.10.21
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
0
W
07.07.21
H2H
Atletico Goianiense
Sport Recife
1
1
D
23.11.20
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
17.08.20
H2H
Atletico Goianiense
Sport Recife
1
1
D
30.11.19
H2H
Atletico Goianiense
Sport Recife
0
0
D
28.08.19
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
12.11.17
H2H
Atletico Goianiense
Sport Recife
2
0
L
20.07.17
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
4
0
W
12.11.13
H2H
Atletico Goianiense
Sport Recife
2
1
L
17.08.13
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
3
2
W
21.10.12
H2H
Atletico Goianiense
Sport Recife
0
1
W
29.07.12
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
Last matches: Sport Recife
11.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Athletic Club
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
CRB
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Novorizontino
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Avai
2
2
D
01.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
1
1
D
H2H at home: Sport Recife
11.11.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
31.10.21
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
0
W
23.11.20
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
28.08.19
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
20.07.17
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
4
0
W
17.08.13
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
3
2
W
29.07.12
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
Last matches: Atletico Goianiense
08.06.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
America Mineiro
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Criciuma
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Ceara
1
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Vila Nova
1
2
L
21.03.26
Ser
Atletico Goianiense
Operario-PR
0
1
L
H2H away: Atletico Goianiense
11.11.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
31.10.21
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
0
L
23.11.20
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
W
28.08.19
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
20.07.17
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
4
0
L
17.08.13
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
3
2
L
29.07.12
H2H
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.45
Draw 3.31
Home 2.21
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.10
Draw 2.20
Home 2.84
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.56
Over 2.25 1.82
Over 2.5 2.06
Over 2.75 2.38
Over 3.0 2.92
Over 3.5 3.66
Under 1.5 3.26
Under 1.75 2.89
Under 2.0 2.50
Under 2.25 2.05
Under 2.5 1.79
Under 2.75 1.60
Under 3.0 1.42
Under 3.5 1.29
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 3.20
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.10
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.38
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.08
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 8.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.73
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.38
Draw 3.18
Home 2.16
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.19
Draw 2.00
Home 2.77
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.68
Draw 2.38
Home 2.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.05
Over 1.25 1.17
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 1.75 1.39
Over 2.0 1.50
Over 2.25 1.79
Over 2.5 2.02
Over 2.75 2.26
Over 3.0 2.76
Over 3.25 3.04
Over 3.5 3.34
Over 3.75 4.14
Over 4.0 5.70
Over 4.25 6.00
Over 4.5 6.35
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 7.60
Under 0.75 7.09
Under 1.0 6.50
Under 1.25 3.94
Under 1.5 2.97
Under 1.75 2.66
Under 2.0 2.33
Under 2.25 1.97
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.53
Under 3.0 1.36
Under 3.25 1.28
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.08
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.70
Draw 3.25
Home 2.02
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.25
Draw 2.08
Home 2.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.45
Home 2.43
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.35
Over 1.75 1.46
Over 2.0 1.61
Over 2.25 1.89
Over 2.5 2.15
Over 2.75 2.50
Over 3.0 3.20
Over 3.25 3.60
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 8.50
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 1.75 2.63
Under 2.0 2.25
Under 2.25 1.87
Under 2.5 1.67
Under 2.75 1.50
Under 3.0 1.33
Under 3.25 1.27
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.05

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 4 2 20:10 10 25
D W D W D
2 13 7 4 2 18:12 6 25
L W W W W
3 13 6 6 1 16:8 8 24
D D W W L
4 13 6 3 4 15:14 1 21
L W L W L
5 13 5 6 2 20:13 7 21
D W D W D
6 13 5 6 2 15:11 4 21
D W W D D
7 13 6 2 5 18:14 4 20
D L L W W
8 13 5 4 4 13:8 5 19
W L W L D
9 13 5 4 4 15:17 -2 19
L W W D L
10 13 4 7 2 9:6 3 19
W W W L D
11 13 4 7 2 15:13 2 19
D D W W D
12 13 5 3 5 13:18 -5 18
D L D W W
13 13 4 5 4 15:15 0 17
D W D L D
14 13 4 5 4 15:15 0 17
D W L L W
15 13 4 3 6 22:23 -1 15
D L L W W
16 13 3 4 6 13:13 0 13
W L D L L
17 13 3 2 8 15:22 -7 11
W L L L W
18 13 2 4 7 14:20 -6 10
L L L L L
19 13 2 2 9 10:25 -15 8
L L D L L
20 13 1 3 9 10:24 -14 6
W L L L D
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