AUSTRALIA VICTORIA NPL
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 71%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
71%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
South Melbourne Win 48.2%
Draw 22.9%
Heidelberg United Win 29%
Expected Goals (xG)
South Melbourne1.5
Heidelberg United1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
South Melbourne South Melbourne
WWDLW
38 GF / 33 GA
Heidelberg United Heidelberg United
WLDWL
38 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.58
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
9
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

South Melbourne South Melbourne 24 matches
Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 24 matches
South Melbourne Statistic Heidelberg United
13 Wins 9
2 Draws 7
9 Losses 8
38 Goals For 38
33 Goals Against 33
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
9 BTTS Yes 15
20 Over 1.5 17
16 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Heidelberg United having the stronger overall control. South Melbourne come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Heidelberg United.

South Melbourne Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 41 points from 24 games, South Melbourne bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 13 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, together with goals at 38:33, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Heidelberg United Analysis

Heidelberg United sit 7 with 34 points after 24 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while the 38:33 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, South Melbourne won 4 times, Heidelberg United won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:24 from South Melbourne's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.1%)
H2H summary: South Melbourne wins 4, draws 2, Heidelberg United wins 8
Last matches: South Melbourne
15.08.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Melbourne City II
3
0
W
02.08.26
Vic
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
0
W
24.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
2
1
W
18.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Preston Lions
0
0
D
10.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
2
0
W
05.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong Thunder
1
0
W
28.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Green Gully
1
2
L
19.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Bentleigh Greens
5
1
W
07.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Altona Magic
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Hume City
1
1
D
25.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Avondale
0
4
L
18.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Sunshine Georgies
0
4
L
08.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
4
L
01.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Melbourne City II
1
2
L
24.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
4
0
W
19.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Preston Lions
3
0
W
31.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
4
2
W
21.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong Thunder
0
3
L
13.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Green Gully
1
0
W
Last matches: Heidelberg United
15.08.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Hume City
4
5
L
01.08.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Avondale
1
2
L
24.07.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Sunshine Georgies
0
0
D
18.07.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Altona Magic
0
0
D
11.07.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Melbourne City II
2
2
D
03.07.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
St. Albans Saints
1
1
D
26.06.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Oakleigh Cannons
0
1
L
20.06.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Preston Lions
0
1
L
05.06.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Dandenong City
1
4
L
29.05.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Dandenong Thunder
4
2
W
22.05.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Green Gully
1
0
W
15.05.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Bentleigh Greens
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
4
0
W
02.05.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Hume City
1
2
L
24.04.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Avondale
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Sunshine Georgies
3
0
W
11.04.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Altona Magic
2
2
D
27.03.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Melbourne City II
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
St. Albans Saints
1
2
L
13.03.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Oakleigh Cannons
3
2
W
H2H: South Melbourne vs Heidelberg United
08.05.26
H2H
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
4
0
L
29.11.25
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
0
W
26.07.25
H2H
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
1
1
D
13.04.25
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
3
L
16.06.24
H2H
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
1
0
L
08.03.24
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
1
D
16.08.23
H2H
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
2
1
L
17.03.23
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
2
L
22.05.22
H2H
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
2
1
L
17.02.22
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
3
1
W
14.08.21
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
0
D
28.02.21
H2H
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
0
1
W
14.02.20
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
3
L
25.08.19
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
3
L
18.05.19
H2H
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
1
3
W
Last matches: South Melbourne
02.08.26
Vic
South Melbourne
St. Albans Saints
2
0
W
18.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Preston Lions
0
0
D
05.07.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong Thunder
1
0
W
28.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Green Gully
1
2
L
07.06.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Altona Magic
2
3
L
25.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Avondale
0
4
L
18.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Sunshine Georgies
0
4
L
01.05.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Melbourne City II
1
2
L
19.04.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Oakleigh Cannons
0
3
L
31.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Dandenong City
4
2
W
07.03.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Bentleigh Greens
1
0
W
19.02.26
Vic
South Melbourne
Hume City
1
2
L
06.12.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Marconi Stallions
2
0
W
29.11.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
0
W
23.11.25
Aus
South Melbourne
NWS Spirit
2
0
W
08.11.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Broadmeadow Magic
2
0
W
19.10.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Moreton City Excelsior
2
0
W
10.10.25
Aus
South Melbourne
Sydney Olympic
3
2
W
17.08.25
Vic
South Melbourne
Avondale
0
5
L
03.08.25
Vic
South Melbourne
Green Gully
1
1
D
H2H at home: South Melbourne
29.11.25
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
0
W
13.04.25
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
3
L
08.03.24
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
1
D
17.03.23
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
2
L
17.02.22
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
3
1
W
14.08.21
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
0
D
14.02.20
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
3
L
25.08.19
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
3
L
Last matches: Heidelberg United
01.08.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Avondale
1
2
L
18.07.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Altona Magic
0
0
D
11.07.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Melbourne City II
2
2
D
05.06.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Dandenong City
1
4
L
22.05.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Green Gully
1
0
W
15.05.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Bentleigh Greens
2
2
D
02.05.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Hume City
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Sunshine Georgies
3
0
W
22.03.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
St. Albans Saints
1
2
L
13.03.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Oakleigh Cannons
3
2
W
08.03.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Preston Lions
1
0
W
21.02.26
Vic
Heidelberg United
Dandenong Thunder
1
0
W
29.11.25
Aus
Heidelberg United
South Melbourne
0
1
L
16.11.25
Aus
Heidelberg United
South Hobart
2
2
D
31.10.25
Aus
Heidelberg United
Marconi Stallions
1
1
D
18.10.25
Aus
Heidelberg United
Wollongong Wolves
3
0
W
23.08.25
Vic
Heidelberg United
Port Melbourne
2
2
D
02.08.25
Vic
Heidelberg United
Avondale
1
2
L
18.07.25
Vic
Heidelberg United
Green Gully
3
0
W
05.07.25
Vic
Heidelberg United
Altona Magic
2
0
W
H2H away: Heidelberg United
29.11.25
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
0
L
13.04.25
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
3
W
08.03.24
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
1
1
D
17.03.23
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
2
W
17.02.22
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
3
1
L
14.08.21
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
0
D
14.02.20
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
3
W
25.08.19
H2H
South Melbourne
Heidelberg United
0
3
W

Standings

Victoria NPL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 15 6 3 49:21 28 51
W D L W W
2 24 15 4 5 40:18 22 49
W W D W D
3 24 14 4 6 48:32 16 46
W W L L L
4 24 13 2 9 61:34 27 41
L W W D L
5 24 13 2 9 38:33 5 41
W W W D W
6 24 8 11 5 32:31 1 35
W D D W D
7 24 9 7 8 38:33 5 34
L L D D D
8 24 9 6 9 32:29 3 33
W W D L L
9 24 8 6 10 39:34 5 30
L L L L L
10 24 7 7 10 28:42 -14 28
D L W D D
11 24 7 6 11 27:39 -12 27
L D W D W
12 24 5 6 13 21:47 -26 21
D D L W L
13 24 3 6 15 20:49 -29 15
L D D W L
14 24 4 3 17 23:54 -31 15
L L L L W