IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Tolka Park
Referee: A. Hunter
Shelbourne
Match Timeline
Waterford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Luke Heeney
Waterford
🟨
31'
Benny Couto
Waterford
🟨
34'
Sam Bone
Shelbourne
37'
W. Jarvis · Assist: H. Wood
Shelbourne
39'
K. Ledwidge
Waterford
🔄
55'
W. Jarvis ↔ D. Kelly
Shelbourne
🔄
61'
M. Mbeng ↔ M. Lundgren
Shelbourne
🔄
61'
R. Freitas ↔ M. Odubeko
Shelbourne
🔄
70'
L. Heeney ↔ S. Glenfield
Waterford
🔄
72'
D. McMenamy ↔ C. Barrett
Waterford
🔄
79'
A. Coote ↔ E. Chapman
Shelbourne
🔄
80'
E. Caffrey ↔ S. Boyd
Shelbourne
🟨
81'
Will Johnson
Waterford
🔄
85'
P. Amond ↔ J. Voilas
Waterford
🔄
86'
T. Lonergan ↔ C. Noonan
Waterford
🟨
90+5'
Jonathan Lunney
Shelbourne
90'
S. Boyd
Shelbourne

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Shelbourne Win 58%
Draw 36.5%
Waterford Win 5.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shelbourne1.8
Waterford1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WWDLW
35 GF / 28 GA
Waterford Waterford
WLDWL
30 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
15
BTTS Yes
15
14
Over 2.5
12
4.31
Shots on Goal
3.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shelbourne Shelbourne 20 matches
Waterford Waterford 24 matches
Shelbourne Statistic Waterford
8 Wins 6
7 Draws 7
5 Losses 11
35 Goals For 30
28 Goals Against 45
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
15 BTTS Yes 15
16 Over 1.5 19
14 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 8
4.31 Shots On Goal 3.41
14.25 Total Shots 11.88
5.69 Corners 5.12
53.3% Ball Possession 40.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Waterford. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shelbourne expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Waterford in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Waterford having the stronger overall control. Shelbourne arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 21 points compared to Waterford in 10 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 21 points from 16 matches. The record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 24:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Wood (6 goals), J. Martin (6 goals), Daniel Kelly (4 goals), with creative support from M. Lundgren (3 assists), H. Wood (2 assists), A. Coote (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Waterford Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Waterford have collected 10 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 17:35 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Lonergan (7 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), P. Amond (3 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), T. Lonergan (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Shelbourne won 9 times, Waterford won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:10 from Shelbourne's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Shelbourne 3-5-2 / Waterford 5-3-2
H2H summary: Shelbourne wins 9, draws 3, Waterford wins 2
Stats
Shelbourne Shelbourne
Waterford Waterford
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
2
3 Corner Kicks 2
7 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 3
69% Ball Possession 31%
19 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 3
6 Blocked Shots 2
14 Shots insidebox 3
5 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
519 Total passes 233
418 Passes accurate 128
2.81 expected_goals 0.27
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Shelbourne
Formation
Waterford
W. Speel
W. Speel
M. Mbeng
M. Mbeng
S. Bone
S. Bone
P. Barrett
P. Barrett
K. Ledwidge
K. Ledwidge
E. Caffrey
E. Caffrey
A. Coote
A. Coote
J. Lunney
J. Lunney
H. Wood
🎯
H. Wood
W. Jarvis
W. Jarvis
R. Freitas
R. Freitas
S. McMullan
S. McMullan
J. Houston
J. Houston
H. Cann
H. Cann
J. Mahon
J. Mahon
K. Long
K. Long
B. Couto
B. Couto
L. Heeney
L. Heeney
D. McMenamy
D. McMenamy
W. Johnson
W. Johnson
T. Lonergan
T. Lonergan
P. Amond
P. Amond
Shelbourne 4-5-1
Starting XI
1
W. Speel
G
25
M. Mbeng
↓ 61'
D
15
S. Bone
🟨 34'
D
29
P. Barrett
D
4
K. Ledwidge
⚽ 39'
D
27
E. Caffrey
↓ 80'
M
14
A. Coote
↓ 79'
M
6
J. Lunney
🟨 90+5'
M
7
H. Wood
🎯 37'
M
36
W. Jarvis
⚽ 37' ↓ 55'
M
20
R. Freitas
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
31
C. Walsh
G
17
D. Kelly
↑ 55'
M
22
S. Moore
D
28
M. Lundgren
↑ 61'
M
2
S. Gannon
D
9
S. Boyd
⚽ 90' ↑ 80'
F
5
E. Chapman
↑ 79'
M
11
M. Odubeko
↑ 61'
F
24
Z. Ibsen Rossi
D
Waterford 5-3-2
Starting XI
1
S. McMullan
G
2
J. Houston
D
16
H. Cann
D
5
J. Mahon
D
13
K. Long
D
3
B. Couto
🟨 31'
D
15
L. Heeney
↓ 70' 🟨 26'
M
27
D. McMenamy
↓ 72'
M
4
W. Johnson
18
T. Lonergan
↓ 86'
F
9
P. Amond
↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
21
A. Doherty
G
20
J. Voilas
↑ 85'
F
19
S. Glenfield
↑ 70'
M
14
J. Dempsey
D
17
J. Faria
M
7
C. Carty
F
10
C. Noonan
↑ 86'
M
6
C. Barrett
↑ 72'
D
22
R. Mansfield
F
Last matches: Shelbourne
07.07.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Celtic
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
27.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
25.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
03.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
16.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
2
1
W
09.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
2
D
Last matches: Waterford
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
4
2
W
26.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
H2H: Shelbourne vs Waterford
22.05.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
06.02.26
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
26.09.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
23.06.25
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
2
2
D
05.05.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
L
21.02.25
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
W
18.01.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
4
1
W
18.10.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
3
1
W
13.06.24
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
W
17.05.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
1
0
W
16.02.24
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
16.10.22
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
W
10.10.20
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
W
01.08.20
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
L
Last matches: Shelbourne
07.07.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Celtic
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
3
L
16.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
0
D
09.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
2
D
06.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
2
3
L
20.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
31.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Longford Town
4
1
W
20.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
11.12.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Crystal Palace
0
3
L
06.11.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Drita
0
1
L
02.10.25
UEF
Shelbourne
BK Hacken
0
0
D
21.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Linfield
3
1
W
12.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
HNK Rijeka
1
3
L
H2H at home: Shelbourne
22.05.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
26.09.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
05.05.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
L
18.01.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
4
1
W
18.10.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
3
1
W
17.05.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
1
0
W
01.08.20
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
L
Last matches: Waterford
03.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
4
2
W
26.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
13.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
2
L
23.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Wexford
1
0
W
14.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Cork City
0
1
L
10.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Cobh Ramblers
3
1
W
06.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bray Wanderers
2
1
W
H2H away: Waterford
22.05.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
L
26.09.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
L
05.05.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
W
18.01.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
4
1
L
18.10.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
3
1
L
17.05.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
1
0
L
01.08.20
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1