IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
11.09.2026 18:45
Tolka Park
Shelbourne
Match Timeline
Derry City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
Odhran Casey
Shelbourne
🟨
50'
Jonathan Lunney
Shelbourne
🔄
57'
Alistair Coote ↔ Sean Moore
Shelbourne
🔄
57'
Ademipo Odubeko ↔ Sean Boyd
Shelbourne
🔄
58'
Jonathan Lunney ↔ Jack Henry-Francis
Shelbourne
🔄
59'
Darragh Burns ↔ James Clarke
Derry City
🔄
59'
Tyler·Smith ↔ Liam Boyce
Derry City
🟨
65'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
🟨
69'
Liam Boyce
Derry City
🔄
72'
Ellis Chapman ↔ Kévin Santos
Derry City
🔄
76'
Evan Caffrey ↔ Rodrigo Costa Freitas
Shelbourne
🟨
83'
nick twisk
Derry City
🔄
83'
Milan Bernhard Mbeng ↔ Sean Gannon
Shelbourne
90+3'
Michael Duffy · Assist: James Clarke
Derry City

Shelbourne vs Derry City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.9%
Odds 2.35
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.9%
2.35
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.85
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.3%
1.26
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Shelbourne Win 64.9%
Draw 14.3%
Derry City Win 20.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shelbourne1.51
Derry City1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WWDLW
58 GF / 53 GA
Derry City Derry City
WLDWL
45 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
28
BTTS Yes
22
25
Over 2.5
18
3.63
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shelbourne Shelbourne 37 matches
Derry City Derry City 35 matches
Shelbourne Statistic Derry City
12 Wins 7
15 Draws 13
10 Losses 15
58 Goals For 45
53 Goals Against 50
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
28 BTTS Yes 22
30 Over 1.5 24
25 Over 2.5 18
13 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 10
3.63 Shots On Goal 4.03
11.97 Total Shots 11.27
4.53 Corners 4.94
46.2% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Derry City's more proactive style and Shelbourne's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Derry City. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shelbourne expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Derry City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Shelbourne Analysis

Placed 5 with 35 points from 27 outings, Shelbourne continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 37:39 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Harry Wood (3 goals), Daniel Kelly (3 goals), John Martin (2 goals), with creative support from Harry Wood (5 assists), John Martin (1 assists), Kerr McInroy (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Derry City Analysis

So far, Derry City have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 34 points from 29 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 13 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 41:40 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by James Clarke (5 goals), Kévin Santos (3 goals), Michael Duffy (2 goals), with creative support from Michael Duffy (3 assists), Adam O'Reilly (2 assists), Ben Doherty (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Shelbourne won 3 times, Derry City won 4 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:12 from Shelbourne's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
Predicted formations: Shelbourne 4-2-3-1 / Derry City 4-3-3
H2H summary: Shelbourne wins 3, draws 8, Derry City wins 4

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 31 9 12 10 41:44 -3 39
W L L D D
7 31 9 10 12 41:47 -6 37
L W L D W
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation