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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
24.10.2026 11:30
Bramall Lane

Sheffield Utd vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sheffield Utd Win 67.9%
Draw 6.2%
Derby Win 25.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sheffield Utd1.54
Derby1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd
WWDLW
25 GF / 17 GA
Derby Derby
WLDWL
17 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
9
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
9
3.27
Shots on Goal
3.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 17 matches
Derby Derby 17 matches
Sheffield Utd Statistic Derby
8 Wins 3
5 Draws 4
4 Losses 10
25 Goals For 17
17 Goals Against 28
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
9 BTTS Yes 10
11 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 5
3.27 Shots On Goal 3.82
9.36 Total Shots 12.73
3.27 Corners 5.64
41.5% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Sheffield Utd arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 15 with 12 points compared to Derby in 23 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sheffield Utd expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Derby in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derby having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Derby.

Sheffield Utd Analysis

With 12 points from 10 games and a place of 15, Sheffield Utd still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 14:14 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on P. Bamford (3 goals), T. Cannon (3 goals), Sydie Peck (1 goals), with creative support from J. Rothwell (2 assists), P. Bamford (1 assists), Sydie Peck (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Derby Analysis

Derby sit 23 with 6 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 9:19 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Clark (1 goals), S. Szmodics (1 goals), C. Morris (1 goals), with creative support from B. Clark (1 assists), S. Szmodics (1 assists), C. Morris (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Sheffield Utd won 9 times, Derby won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:13 from Sheffield Utd's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.62 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Sheffield Utd 4-4-2 / Derby 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sheffield Utd wins 9, draws 1, Derby wins 3

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 16:8 8 23
L W W W W
2 11 6 4 1 30:12 18 22
W W D D W
3 11 6 4 1 22:16 6 22
D W W D D
4 11 5 5 1 20:11 9 20
W W W D W
5 11 6 2 3 15:12 3 20
W W L L D
6 11 6 1 4 18:16 2 19
W L W W W
7 11 6 3 2 21:10 11 17
D W W L W
8 10 5 2 3 18:15 3 17
W L L W W
9 11 4 5 2 15:12 3 17
L W D D D
10 11 4 3 4 17:16 1 15
L W W D W
11 11 4 3 4 15:14 1 15
W L W L L
12 11 4 3 4 18:18 0 15
D L W D D
13 10 4 2 4 13:13 0 14
W W L D D
14 11 3 5 3 15:16 -1 14
W L D W L
15 11 4 2 5 15:18 -3 14
D W L W W
16 11 4 2 5 12:15 -3 14
L L D W L
17 11 3 5 3 10:15 -5 14
L D D L D
18 11 3 3 5 9:19 -10 12
D L L L W
19 11 2 5 4 18:17 1 11
D W L W L
20 11 3 2 6 10:19 -9 11
W L L L L
21 11 3 0 8 17:21 -4 9
L L L L L
22 11 1 5 5 16:21 -5 8
L D W D L
23
Derby Away
11 1 3 7 9:20 -11 6
L L D D L
24 11 1 1 9 9:24 -15 4
L L L D L
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One