IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
01.05.2026 19:00
Tallaght Stadium
Referee: L. Keating
Shamrock Rovers
Match Timeline
Waterford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
25'
G. Burke · Assist: E. Stevens
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
64'
J. Mulraney ↔ A. Matthews
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
64'
J. Byrne ↔ D. Watts
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
68'
G. Burke ↔ A. Greene
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
68'
A. Brennan ↔ M. Asamoah
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
68'
R. Lopes ↔ L. Grace
Shamrock Rovers
🔄
71'
C. Carty ↔ J. Voilas
Waterford
🔄
71'
P. Amond ↔ S. Glenfield
Waterford
🔄
77'
E. McLaughlin ↔ T. Coyle
Waterford
🔄
83'
J. Houston ↔ J. Faria
Waterford
🔄
83'
D. McMenamy ↔ T. Lonergan
Waterford
🟨
85'
Michael Noonan
Shamrock Rovers
🟨
90+3'
Enda Stevens
Shamrock Rovers
🟨
90'
Samuel Glenfield
Waterford

Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 93.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 25.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
93.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
25.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Shamrock Rovers Win 93.8%
Draw 5.5%
Waterford Win 73%
Expected Goals (xG)
Shamrock Rovers1.84
Waterford0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers
WWDLW
28 GF / 11 GA
Waterford Waterford
WLDWL
22 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.16
0.73
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
6
BTTS Yes
11
6
Over 2.5
8
4.31
Shots on Goal
2.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 15 matches
Waterford Waterford 19 matches
Shamrock Rovers Statistic Waterford
9 Wins 5
4 Draws 5
2 Losses 9
28 Goals For 22
11 Goals Against 34
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
0.73 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
6 BTTS Yes 11
11 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 7
4.31 Shots On Goal 2.92
12.46 Total Shots 11.5
5.23 Corners 5.08
58.9% Ball Possession 41.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Shamrock Rovers's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Waterford. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Shamrock Rovers expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Waterford in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Waterford having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Shamrock Rovers arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 25 points compared to Waterford in 10 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Shamrock Rovers Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 25 points from 13 games, Shamrock Rovers bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with a 19:11 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on G. Burke (4 goals), R. Lopes (3 goals), Aaron Greene (2 goals), with creative support from J. Byrne (3 assists), Cory O'Sullivan (2 assists), T. Sobowale (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford sit 10 with 5 points after 12 league matches. Their overall return of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 9:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Lonergan (3 goals), P. Amond (2 goals), Dean McMenamy (1 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), C. Noonan (1 assists), Evan McLaughlin (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Shamrock Rovers won 12 times, Waterford won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 28:13 from Shamrock Rovers's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (99.3%)
Predicted formations: Shamrock Rovers 3-4-2-1 / Waterford 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Shamrock Rovers wins 12, draws 1, Waterford wins 2

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 16 7 5 46:27 19 55
D W D W W
2 29 14 8 7 45:25 20 50
L W W D D
3 29 14 8 7 50:34 16 50
W W L D W
4 29 10 10 9 46:45 1 40
W L L D D
5 27 8 11 8 37:39 -2 35
D L L W D
6 29 7 13 9 41:40 1 34
D L W D L
7 28 8 10 10 36:42 -6 34
D W D D D
8 29 7 11 11 39:48 -9 32
W D W W D
9 29 6 10 13 33:48 -15 28
L L D D D
10 29 5 8 16 23:48 -25 23
L D L D D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation