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26.10.2026 20:00
Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán

Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
73.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sevilla Win 62.1%
Draw 14.5%
Osasuna Win 23.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sevilla1.46
Osasuna1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sevilla Sevilla
WWDLW
22 GF / 24 GA
Osasuna Osasuna
WLDWL
17 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
11
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
7
4.33
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sevilla Sevilla 17 matches
Osasuna Osasuna 14 matches
Sevilla Statistic Osasuna
8 Wins 6
3 Draws 2
6 Losses 6
22 Goals For 17
24 Goals Against 24
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
11 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 4
4.33 Shots On Goal 4.33
11.78 Total Shots 10.78
3 Corners 3.56
41.4% Ball Possession 45.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sevilla expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Osasuna in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Osasuna having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Osasuna. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Osasuna arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Sevilla Analysis

Sevilla are currently 6 in the standings with 14 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 14:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Sierra (2 goals), R. Ure (1 goals), Y. Fofana (1 goals), with creative support from R. Ure (2 assists), Y. Fofana (1 assists), Félix Correia (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Osasuna Analysis

Osasuna sit 10 with 11 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 10:18 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Budimir (7 goals), Raúl García (1 goals), Asier Osambela (1 goals), with creative support from Raúl García (1 assists), Catena (1 assists), Rubén García (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sevilla won 5 times, Osasuna won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:15 from Sevilla's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.5%)
Predicted formations: Sevilla 4-2-3-1 / Osasuna 5-4-1
H2H summary: Sevilla wins 5, draws 5, Osasuna wins 5

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 9 0 0 39:9 30 27
W W W W W
2 9 7 1 1 19:8 11 22
W W W W W
3 9 7 0 2 23:9 14 21
W W L W W
4 9 6 1 2 16:14 2 19
L W D W W
5 9 5 1 3 17:17 0 16
W W W L W
6 9 4 2 3 14:16 -2 14
L D L W W
7 9 3 2 4 13:10 3 11
L L D L L
8 9 2 5 2 10:7 3 11
W D W D D
9 9 2 5 2 13:12 1 11
D L D L D
10 9 3 2 4 10:18 -8 11
W L D L L
11 7 2 3 2 7:6 1 9
D D D W
12 9 2 3 4 13:13 0 9
D L W W L
13 9 2 2 5 11:12 -1 8
L D L L W
14 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W
15 8 2 2 4 4:10 -6 8
L W L D D
16 9 2 2 5 13:25 -12 8
L D L L W
17 8 1 4 3 12:16 -4 7
D D L L D
18 9 1 4 4 11:17 -6 7
D D W L D
19 9 1 3 5 6:15 -9 6
D D L W L
20 9 0 4 5 6:18 -12 4
L D L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2