🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Lumen Field
Referee: I. Elfath

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 78.3%
Odds 2.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.56
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
78.3%
2.30
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.56
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.7%
1.26
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Seattle Sounders Win 16.2%
Draw 5.5%
Chicago Fire Win 78.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Seattle Sounders1.36
Chicago Fire1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders
WWDLW
39 GF / 36 GA
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WLDWL
46 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.77
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
15
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
18
4.65
Shots on Goal
4.95

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 28 matches
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 26 matches
Seattle Sounders Statistic Chicago Fire
13 Wins 13
4 Draws 6
11 Losses 7
39 Goals For 46
36 Goals Against 34
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
15 BTTS Yes 17
22 Over 1.5 20
15 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 3
4.65 Shots On Goal 4.95
12.78 Total Shots 13.74
4.48 Corners 4.26
50.9% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Chicago Fire's more proactive style and Seattle Sounders's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Chicago Fire carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 35 points while Seattle Sounders sit 12 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Seattle Sounders expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Chicago Fire in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chicago Fire having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chicago Fire. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Seattle Sounders have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Seattle Sounders Analysis

Seattle Sounders approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 24 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 3 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 21:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Paul Rothrock (3 goals), Albert Rusnák (2 goals), Jesús Ferreira (2 goals), with creative support from Albert Rusnák (4 assists), Jordan Morris (2 assists), Jesús Ferreira (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Chicago Fire come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 35 points after 19 matches. With 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 36:25, they continue to show good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Hugo Cuypers (8 goals), Philip Zinckernagel (5 goals), Maren Haile-Selassie (3 goals), with creative support from Philip Zinckernagel (6 assists), Maren Haile-Selassie (4 assists), Andrew Gutman (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Seattle Sounders won 8 times, Chicago Fire won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:17 from Seattle Sounders's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.23 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 / Chicago Fire 4-4-2
Missing players: Seattle Sounders 10, Chicago Fire 3
H2H summary: Seattle Sounders wins 8, draws 1, Chicago Fire wins 4
Last matches: Seattle Sounders
22.08.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
20.08.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Austin
1
2
L
17.08.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
02.08.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
1
2
L
25.07.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Philadelphia Union
0
1
L
23.07.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Austin
1
3
L
17.07.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
1
5
L
25.05.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles FC
0
1
L
17.05.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
2
L
14.05.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
San Jose Earthquakes
3
2
W
10.05.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
San Diego
1
1
D
02.05.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Sporting Kansas City
1
1
D
26.04.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas
2
1
W
19.04.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
St. Louis City
4
1
W
16.04.26
CON
Seattle Sounders
Tigres UANL
3
1
W
09.04.26
CON
Seattle Sounders
Tigres UANL
0
2
L
05.04.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
1
0
W
22.03.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Minnesota United FC
0
0
D
19.03.26
CON
Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps
2
1
W
15.03.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
San Jose Earthquakes
1
0
W
Last matches: Chicago Fire
22.08.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
19.08.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
16.08.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers
2
1
W
02.08.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
2
1
W
25.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York City FC
1
3
L
22.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Inter Miami
2
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
2
0
W
13.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
3
1
W
09.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls
1
3
L
03.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
2
3
L
26.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Sporting Kansas City
5
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
3
3
D
12.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
05.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
1
0
W
21.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
15.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
1
2
L
08.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Columbus Crew
0
0
D
28.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
3
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo
1
2
L
H2H: Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire
30.06.24
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
17.07.22
H2H
Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders
1
0
L
14.07.20
H2H
Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders
2
1
L
01.03.20
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
16.03.19
H2H
Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders
2
4
W
24.06.18
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
1
1
D
14.05.17
H2H
Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders
4
1
L
29.09.16
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
1
0
W
12.07.15
H2H
Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders
1
0
L
14.08.14
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
6
0
W
08.06.14
H2H
Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders
2
3
W
08.09.13
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
29.04.12
H2H
Chicago Fire
Seattle Sounders
1
2
W
Last matches: Seattle Sounders
20.08.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Austin
1
2
L
17.08.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
17.07.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Portland Timbers
1
5
L
17.05.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles Galaxy
0
2
L
14.05.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
San Jose Earthquakes
3
2
W
10.05.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
San Diego
1
1
D
26.04.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas
2
1
W
19.04.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
St. Louis City
4
1
W
16.04.26
CON
Seattle Sounders
Tigres UANL
3
1
W
19.03.26
CON
Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
Seattle Sounders
Colorado Rapids
2
0
W
15.02.26
Fri
Seattle Sounders
Louisville City
3
1
W
05.02.26
Fri
Seattle Sounders
Hammarby FF
3
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
Seattle Sounders
IF Brommapojkarna
3
0
W
H2H at home: Seattle Sounders
30.06.24
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
01.03.20
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
24.06.18
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
1
1
D
29.09.16
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
1
0
W
14.08.14
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
6
0
W
08.09.13
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
Last matches: Chicago Fire
22.08.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
19.08.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
2
1
W
25.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York City FC
1
3
L
22.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Inter Miami
2
3
L
16.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
2
0
W
13.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
3
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
3
3
D
21.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Columbus Crew
0
0
D
22.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo
1
2
L
13.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Austin
2
2
D
08.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
2
W
01.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
24.01.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Sporting Kansas City
1
0
W
H2H away: Chicago Fire
30.06.24
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
2
1
L
01.03.20
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
2
1
L
24.06.18
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
1
1
D
29.09.16
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
1
0
L
14.08.14
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
6
0
L
08.09.13
H2H
Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire
2
1
L
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 3.97
Home 2.76
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.85
Draw 2.49
Home 3.31
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.56
Over 2.75 1.70
Over 3.0 1.91
Over 3.25 2.16
Over 3.5 2.41
Over 4.5 4.09
Under 1.5 5.05
Under 2.5 2.43
Under 2.75 2.18
Under 3.0 1.93
Under 3.25 1.71
Under 3.5 1.57
Under 4.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 3.70
Home 2.88
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.40
Home 3.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 2.75
Home 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.38
Over 4.5 4.00
Over 5.5 8.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 29.00
Under 0.5 17.00
Under 1.5 5.00
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 4.5 1.22
Under 5.5 1.08
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.32
Draw 3.60
Home 2.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.70
Draw 2.32
Home 3.05
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.55
Draw 2.75
Home 2.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 2.75 1.72
Over 3.0 1.94
Over 3.25 2.20
Over 3.5 2.48
Over 3.75 2.85
Over 4.5 4.50
Over 5.5 8.50
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.70
Under 2.5 2.30
Under 2.75 2.06
Under 3.0 1.82
Under 3.25 1.63
Under 3.5 1.52
Under 3.75 1.38
Under 4.5 1.19
Under 5.5 1.05

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 12 4 4 45:18 27 40
W L W D D
2 21 12 2 7 30:26 4 38
L W W W W
3 22 10 5 7 36:22 14 35
D L L D W
4 21 10 3 8 39:33 6 33
L L L L D
5 21 9 6 6 38:34 4 33
L W W D L
6 21 9 6 6 30:27 3 33
W D W D W
7 21 9 1 11 30:28 2 28
L W W W L
8 20 8 4 8 34:32 2 28
L L D D L
9 21 8 4 9 38:37 1 28
D W L W W
10 21 7 7 7 27:29 -2 28
W L D D D
11 21 7 6 8 37:32 5 27
W L W D W
12 22 6 8 8 27:32 -5 26
D W L D D
13 20 7 4 9 22:27 -5 25
D L L L L
14 21 5 6 10 26:40 -14 21
D W L L L
15 21 4 3 14 20:51 -31 15
L D L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Seattle Sounders 10 missing
-
Y. Gomez Andrade
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. Ragen
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
H. Dotson
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
P. Kingston
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
N. Petkovic
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
P. Arriola
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
J. Ferreira
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
J. Morris
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
P. de La Vega
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
X. Gnaulati
Questionable Injury
OUT
Chicago Fire 3 missing
-
M. Mbokazi
Missing Fixture Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
C. Mueller
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
A. Franco
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT