BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Referee: E. Batista
Santos
Match Timeline
Mirassol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
João Schmidt
Santos
🟨
22'
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Mirassol
🟨
24'
Neto Moura
Mirassol
🔄
28'
Gabriel Knesowitsch ↔ Lucas Oliveira
Mirassol
36'
Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
46'
Rony ↔ Gabriel Bontempo
Santos
🔄
61'
Joao Schmidt ↔ B. Rollheiser
Santos
🔄
61'
G. Cazonatti ↔ Wallisson
Mirassol
🔄
61'
Eduardo ↔ Japa
Mirassol
68'
A. Barreal · Assist: Neymar
Santos
VAR
70'
Wallisson Luiz
Mirassol
🟥
73'
Wallisson Luiz
Mirassol
🔄
74'
A. Barreal ↔ Thaciano
Santos
🟨
76'
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
🔄
78'
Alesson ↔ Fernandinho
Mirassol
🔄
78'
Bruno Santos ↔ Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
82'
Gabriel Barbosa ↔ G. Caballero
Santos
🔄
82'
Igor Vinicius ↔ D. Fernandes
Santos
🟨
88'
Neymar
Santos

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.3%
Odds 1.91
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.93
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.3%
1.91
BTTS Yes
86%
1.75
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.93
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.16
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Santos Win 52.3%
Draw 14.6%
Mirassol Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos1.44
Mirassol1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santos Santos
WWDLW
35 GF / 35 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
33 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
15
BTTS Yes
17
15
Over 2.5
14
3.77
Shots on Goal
4.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santos Santos 23 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 30 matches
Santos Statistic Mirassol
7 Wins 10
7 Draws 7
9 Losses 13
35 Goals For 33
35 Goals Against 40
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
15 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 20
15 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 9
3.77 Shots On Goal 4.07
13.09 Total Shots 12.43
5.41 Corners 5
49.6% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Santos have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santos expected to line up in 4-2-2-2 and Mirassol in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mirassol having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mirassol. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 17 with 22 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats with a 29:35 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals), Neymar (6 goals), Álvaro Barreal (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Miguelito (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol sit 15 with 23 points after 21 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats with a 24:30 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Igor Formiga (4 goals), Negueba (2 goals), Eduardo (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), Reinaldo (3 assists), Igor Formiga (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Santos won 4 times, Mirassol won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:17 from Santos's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.18 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Santos 4-2-2-2 / Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Santos 4, Mirassol 4
H2H summary: Santos wins 4, draws 5, Mirassol wins 2
Stats
Santos Santos
Mirassol Mirassol
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
0
10 Corner Kicks 2
9 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 0
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 2
7 Blocked Shots 0
9 Shots insidebox 3
12 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 6
576 Total passes 332
499 Passes accurate 246
1.22 expected_goals 0.23
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Santos
Formation
Mirassol
Gabriel Brazao
Gabriel Brazao
Igor Vinicius
Igor Vinicius
Willian Arao
Willian Arao
Luan Peres
Luan Peres
G. Escobar
G. Escobar
Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique
Joao Schmidt
Joao Schmidt
Rony
Rony
Neymar
🎯
Neymar
A. Barreal
A. Barreal
Gabriel Barbosa
Gabriel Barbosa
Walter
Walter
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Joao Victor
Joao Victor
Willian Machado
Willian Machado
Igor Formiga
Igor Formiga
G. Cazonatti
G. Cazonatti
Neto Moura
Neto Moura
Reinaldo
Reinaldo
Eduardo
Eduardo
Bruno Santos
Bruno Santos
Alesson
Alesson
Santos 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
77
Gabriel Brazao
G
18
Igor Vinicius
↓ 82'
D
15
Willian Arao
D
14
Luan Peres
D
31
G. Escobar
D
48
Gustavo Henrique
M
5
Joao Schmidt
↓ 61' 🟨 20'
M
11
Rony
↓ 46'
M
10
Neymar
🎯 68' 🟨 88'
M
22
A. Barreal
⚽ 68' ↓ 74'
M
9
Gabriel Barbosa
↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
34
Joao Paulo
G
42
Joao Alencar
D
26
Joao Ananias
D
81
S. Pierri
M
30
Miguelito
M
8
Gabriel Bontempo
↑ 46'
M
16
Thaciano
↑ 74'
M
28
C. Oliva
M
17
G. Caballero
↑ 82'
F
32
B. Rollheiser
↑ 61'
F
21
Moises
F
27
D. Fernandes
↑ 82'
F
Mirassol 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
22
Walter
G
44
Gabriel Knesowitsch
↓ 28' 🟨 22'
D
34
Joao Victor
D
3
Willian Machado
D
32
Igor Formiga
🟨 76'
M
55
G. Cazonatti
↓ 61'
M
25
Neto Moura
6
Reinaldo
M
33
Eduardo
⚽ 36' ↓ 61'
F
30
Bruno Santos
↓ 78'
F
77
Alesson
↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
23
Alex Muralha
G
12
Victor Luis
D
20
Daniel Borges
D
2
Lucas Oliveira
↑ 28'
D
80
Wallisson
↑ 61' 🟥 73'
M
10
Chico Kim
M
7
Shaylon
M
5
Japa
↑ 61'
M
17
Fernandinho
↑ 78'
F
96
Carlos Eduardo
↑ 78'
19
Gustavo Silva
M
9
Andre Luis
F
Last matches: Santos
16.08.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
3
0
W
09.08.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
25.07.26
Ser
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
2
2
D
16.07.26
Ser
Santos
Botafogo
1
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Santos
União São João
3
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Santos
Vitoria
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santos
Gremio
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Santos
Coritiba
0
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Santos
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santos
Palmeiras
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Santos
Bahia
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Santos
Fluminense
2
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Santos
Flamengo
1
3
L
02.04.26
Ser
Santos
Remo
2
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Santos
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
19.03.26
Ser
Santos
Internacional
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Santos
Corinthians
1
1
D
11.03.26
Ser
Santos
Mirassol
2
2
D
26.02.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
Last matches: Mirassol
20.08.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
16.08.26
Ser
Mirassol
Flamengo
1
5
L
13.08.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
1
3
L
29.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
1
W
25.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Gremio
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Bahia
1
2
L
H2H: Santos vs Mirassol
23.08.26
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
1
1
D
11.03.26
H2H
Mirassol
Santos
2
2
D
20.11.25
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
1
1
D
19.07.25
H2H
Mirassol
Santos
3
0
L
17.01.25
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
2
1
W
12.10.24
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
3
2
W
26.06.24
H2H
Mirassol
Santos
0
0
D
11.02.24
H2H
Mirassol
Santos
2
2
D
14.01.23
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
2
1
W
17.02.22
H2H
Mirassol
Santos
3
2
L
07.03.20
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
3
1
W
Last matches: Santos
09.08.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
25.07.26
Ser
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
2
2
D
04.07.26
Fri
Santos
União São João
3
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Santos
Vitoria
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Santos
Coritiba
0
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Santos
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Santos
Fluminense
2
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Santos
Remo
2
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Santos
Internacional
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Santos
Corinthians
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
04.02.26
Ser
Santos
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Santos
23.08.26
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
1
1
D
20.11.25
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
1
1
D
17.01.25
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
2
1
W
12.10.24
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
3
2
W
14.01.23
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
2
1
W
07.03.20
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
3
1
W
Last matches: Mirassol
20.08.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
09.08.26
Ser
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
1
3
L
25.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Palmeiras
0
1
L
04.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
2
D
H2H away: Mirassol
23.08.26
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
1
1
D
20.11.25
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
1
1
D
17.01.25
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
2
1
L
12.10.24
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
3
2
L
14.01.23
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
2
1
L
07.03.20
H2H
Santos
Mirassol
3
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 1.91
Draw 3.61
Away 4.18
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.48
Draw 2.32
Away 4.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Under 1.5 3.72
Over 2.0 1.44
Under 2.0 2.86
Over 2.25 1.68
Under 2.25 2.24
Over 2.5 1.93
Under 2.5 1.94
Over 2.75 2.16
Under 2.75 1.72
Over 3.5 3.25
Under 3.5 1.35
Over 3.0 2.60
Under 3.0 1.52
Over 4.5 6.36
Under 4.5 1.13
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 1.91
Draw 3.50
Away 4.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.50
Draw 2.25
Away 4.33
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 2.20
Draw 2.50
Away 4.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.28
Under 1.5 3.75
Over 2.5 1.90
Under 2.5 1.90
Over 3.5 3.20
Under 3.5 1.36
Over 0.5 1.06
Under 0.5 10.00
Over 4.5 6.00
Under 4.5 1.12
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 7.5 1.00
Over 5.5 13.00
Under 5.5 1.04
Over 6.5 26.00
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 1.90
Draw 3.62
Away 4.16
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.42
Draw 2.13
Away 4.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 2.19
Draw 2.49
Away 4.05
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.23
Under 1.5 3.44
Over 1.75 1.31
Under 1.75 3.06
Over 2.0 1.40
Under 2.0 2.65
Over 2.25 1.69
Under 2.25 2.23
Over 2.5 1.92
Under 2.5 1.92
Over 2.75 2.06
Under 2.75 1.65
Over 3.5 3.08
Under 3.5 1.28
Over 0.5 1.01
Under 0.5 9.95
Over 1.0 1.01
Under 1.0 8.70
Over 1.25 1.12
Under 1.25 4.76
Over 3.0 2.49
Under 3.0 1.45
Over 4.5 6.05
Under 4.5 1.06
Over 3.25 2.75
Under 3.25 1.35
Over 3.75 3.82
Under 3.75 1.18
Over 4.0 5.25
Under 4.0 1.09
Over 4.25 5.65
Under 4.25 1.08
Over 4.75 8.50
Under 4.75 1.02
Over 5.0 8.90
Under 5.0 1.02
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 7.5 1.00
Over 5.5 11.00
Under 5.5 1.03
Over 6.5 26.00
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 1.89
Draw 3.40
Away 3.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 2.48
Draw 2.18
Away 4.35
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 2.25
Draw 2.55
Away 3.85
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Under 1.5 3.50
Over 1.75 1.37
Under 1.75 3.05
Over 2.0 1.47
Under 2.0 2.65
Over 2.25 1.71
Under 2.25 2.12
Over 2.5 1.94
Under 2.5 1.83
Over 2.75 2.23
Under 2.75 1.65
Over 3.5 3.40
Under 3.5 1.30
Over 0.5 1.04
Under 0.5 10.00
Over 3.0 2.70
Under 3.0 1.45
Over 4.5 7.00
Under 4.5 1.09
Over 3.25 3.05
Under 3.25 1.37
Over 5.5 13.00
Under 5.5 1.01

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 15 6 3 44:20 24 51
W L D W L
2 23 13 6 4 45:21 24 45
L W W D D
3 24 13 5 6 34:22 12 44
W D W D W
4 24 11 8 5 36:29 7 41
W W D D D
5 24 11 6 7 34:33 1 39
W W W W L
6 24 9 10 5 34:28 6 37
W D D D D
7 23 10 5 8 28:23 5 35
W D L D D
8 24 9 7 8 30:31 -1 34
W D W L D
9 23 9 6 8 30:27 3 33
D W D W D
10 24 8 8 8 26:24 2 32
L L W D D
11 23 8 6 9 37:37 0 30
L L D W D
12 24 8 5 11 23:35 -12 29
L W L L L
13 23 7 6 10 27:27 0 27
L D L D L
14 23 6 8 9 33:36 -3 26
D W L D L
15 23 6 7 10 24:31 -7 25
L L W D L
16 24 5 10 9 24:28 -4 25
D D D D L
17 23 6 6 11 26:36 -10 24
D L L W D
18 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
19 23 5 7 11 24:38 -14 22
L L D D L
20 23 2 8 13 24:46 -22 14
W D L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Santos 4 missing
-
Lucas Verissimo
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
Vinicius Lira
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Gabriel Bontempo
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Gabriel Menino
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Mirassol 4 missing
-
Denilson
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Jose Aldo
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Edson Carioca
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Negueba
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT