COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.1%
Odds 2.79
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.70
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.1%
2.79
BTTS No
60.3%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.70
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.40
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50
Correct Score 2-0
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Santa Fe Win 63.1%
Draw 5.8%
Millonarios Win 31.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Fe1.24
Millonarios1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Fe Santa Fe
WWDLW
49 GF / 39 GA
Millonarios Millonarios
WLDWL
37 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1
25
BTTS Yes
13
16
Over 2.5
12
4.41
Shots on Goal
5.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Fe Santa Fe 35 matches
Millonarios Millonarios 29 matches
Santa Fe Statistic Millonarios
11 Wins 10
16 Draws 8
8 Losses 11
49 Goals For 37
39 Goals Against 29
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1
25 BTTS Yes 13
29 Over 1.5 19
16 Over 2.5 12
8 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 11
5 Failed To Score 9
4.41 Shots On Goal 5.48
12.15 Total Shots 15.28
4.44 Corners 5.88
46.9% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Millonarios. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santa Fe expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Millonarios in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Millonarios having the stronger overall control.

Santa Fe Analysis

Santa Fe are currently 7 in the standings with 29 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses, while the 29:22 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Nahuel Bustos (1 goals), Hugo Rodallega (1 goals), Jader Obrian (1 goals), with creative support from Nahuel Bustos (1 assists), Franco Fagúndez (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Millonarios Analysis

Millonarios are currently 10 in the standings with 26 points from 19 matches. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 31:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Rodrigo Contreras (1 goals), Andrés Llinás (1 goals), Leonardo Castro (1 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Contreras (1 assists), Francisco Chaverra (1 assists), Andrey Estupiñán (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santa Fe won 3 times, Millonarios won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:22 from Santa Fe's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Santa Fe 4-2-3-1 / Millonarios 5-3-2
H2H summary: Santa Fe wins 3, draws 3, Millonarios wins 9

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D L D L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L D L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D W D W W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D D L D W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D W L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
D D W D L
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D D L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D L D W L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D W D W W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L W W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D D W W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L W D W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D L W L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D W D L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L D L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
D D L L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W D L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
W D D L L
Post season qualification