COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
12.09.2026 01:30
Santa Fe
Live Timeline
Deportes Tolima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
23'
Mateo Puerta ↔ Emerson Rodriguez
Santa Fe
🟨
36'
Edwar López
Deportes Tolima
🟨
42'
Nahuel Bustos
Santa Fe
🟨
45+3'
Victor Moreno
Santa Fe
🔄
45'
Daniel Torres ↔ Jhojan Torres
Santa Fe
🔄
45'
Victor Moreno ↔ Emanuel Olivera
Santa Fe

Santa Fe vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.4%
Odds 2.56
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.22
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.4%
2.56
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.22
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.49
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Santa Fe Win 60.4%
Draw 13.1%
Deportes Tolima Win 26.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Fe1.27
Deportes Tolima1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Fe Santa Fe
WWDLW
54 GF / 43 GA
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WLDWL
54 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
27
BTTS Yes
18
18
Over 2.5
18
4.53
Shots on Goal
4.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Fe Santa Fe 37 matches
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 42 matches
Santa Fe Statistic Deportes Tolima
12 Wins 19
17 Draws 10
8 Losses 13
54 Goals For 54
43 Goals Against 41
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
27 BTTS Yes 18
31 Over 1.5 28
18 Over 2.5 18
10 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 16
5 Failed To Score 13
4.53 Shots On Goal 4.69
12.25 Total Shots 12.71
4.5 Corners 4.79
47% Ball Possession 56.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Deportes Tolima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Santa Fe Analysis

So far, Santa Fe have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 29 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 29:22 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by H. Rodallega (13 goals), N. Bustos (6 goals), Omar Fernández (5 goals), with creative support from Omar Fernández (8 assists), N. Bustos (5 assists), F. Fagúndez (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Deportes Tolima are currently 6 in the standings with 31 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses, while the 27:17 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luis Sandoval (8 goals), Juan Torres (6 goals), Adrián Parra (5 goals), with creative support from Juan Torres (4 assists), Sebastián Guzmán (4 assists), Luis Sandoval (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santa Fe won 6 times, Deportes Tolima won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:14 from Santa Fe's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.9%)
Predicted formations: Santa Fe 4-2-3-1 / Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Santa Fe wins 6, draws 5, Deportes Tolima wins 4

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D L D L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W D D L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W W D W L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
D W D D W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D L D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W L W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D D D W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W D
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D L D L W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D W D L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L L D L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W D D L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L W D D
Post season qualification