BRAZIL SERIE C
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.4%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Santa Cruz Win 68.4%
Draw 6.1%
Maranhão Win 25.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santa Cruz0.94
Maranhão0.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz
WWDLW
15 GF / 12 GA
Maranhão Maranhão
WLDWL
11 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
0.73
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
6
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 16 matches
Maranhão Maranhão 15 matches
Santa Cruz Statistic Maranhão
7 Wins 4
3 Draws 6
6 Losses 5
15 Goals For 11
12 Goals Against 14
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 0.73
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
6 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 8
3 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Santa Cruz's more proactive style and Maranhão's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maranhão having the stronger overall control. Santa Cruz arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 24 points compared to Maranhão in 16 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Maranhão. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Santa Cruz Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 24 points from 15 games, Santa Cruz bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a 15:11 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Maranhão Analysis

With 18 points from 15 games and a place of 16, Maranhão still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats with a 11:14 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Santa Cruz won 1 times, Maranhão won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Santa Cruz's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.9%)
H2H summary: Santa Cruz wins 1, draws 1, Maranhão wins 0
Last matches: Santa Cruz
25.07.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Figueirense
0
1
L
12.07.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ituano
1
0
W
27.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Paysandu
3
1
W
20.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ypiranga-RS
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Brusque
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ferroviária
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maringá
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Volta Redonda
2
0
W
11.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Inter De Limeira
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Guarani Campinas
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Amazonas
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Confiança
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Floresta
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
AO Itabaiana
1
0
W
08.01.26
Fri
Santa Cruz
Defensa Y Justicia
0
1
L
04.10.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
0
0
D
27.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
1
2
L
20.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
0
0
D
14.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
1
0
W
Last matches: Maranhão
25.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ferroviária
0
0
D
12.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Inter De Limeira
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ituano
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Paysandu
0
1
L
15.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Maringá
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Anápolis
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Caxias
0
0
D
18.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Confiança
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Botafogo PB
3
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Floresta
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Volta Redonda
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Amazonas
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Barra
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
20.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
0
D
14.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
06.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
3
0
W
30.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
1
0
W
24.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Central SC
0
0
D
H2H: Santa Cruz vs Maranhão
20.09.25
H2H
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
0
0
D
14.09.25
H2H
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
1
W
Last matches: Santa Cruz
25.07.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Figueirense
0
1
L
04.07.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ituano
1
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ypiranga-RS
0
1
L
31.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ferroviária
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Volta Redonda
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Amazonas
0
1
L
06.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
AO Itabaiana
1
0
W
08.01.26
Fri
Santa Cruz
Defensa Y Justicia
0
1
L
27.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
1
2
L
20.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
0
0
D
30.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
America-RN
1
0
W
18.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Altos
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Sergipe
2
1
W
27.07.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Treze
3
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz RN
1
1
D
29.06.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Central SC
0
1
L
15.06.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Sousa
2
0
W
01.06.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ferroviario
3
1
W
09.05.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
America-RN
2
1
W
27.04.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Horizonte
4
0
W
H2H at home: Santa Cruz
20.09.25
H2H
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
0
0
D
Last matches: Maranhão
25.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ferroviária
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ituano
0
0
D
15.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Maringá
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Anápolis
0
0
D
18.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Confiança
1
2
L
04.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Floresta
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Amazonas
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Barra
0
3
L
20.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
0
D
06.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
3
0
W
24.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Central SC
0
0
D
10.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tuna Luso
0
2
L
26.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Altos
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Imperatriz
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tocantinópolis
1
1
D
15.06.25
Ser
Maranhão
Parnahyba
2
2
D
30.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Iguatu
0
1
L
21.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Sampaio Correa
1
1
D
26.04.25
Ser
Maranhão
Maracanã
0
0
D
H2H away: Maranhão
20.09.25
H2H
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
0
0
D

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 3 4 21:15 6 27
W L W L W
2 15 7 5 3 28:15 13 26
W L D D L
3 15 8 1 6 21:16 5 25
W W W W W
4 15 7 4 4 18:17 1 25
L W W D L
5 15 7 3 5 15:11 4 24
L W W W L
6 15 7 2 6 23:21 2 23
L W L L W
7 15 6 5 4 28:25 3 23
D W W D D
8 15 6 5 4 15:12 3 23
D W L L W
9 15 6 3 6 18:19 -1 21
W L W D W
10 15 5 6 4 14:12 2 21
L D W D D
11 15 5 6 4 16:15 1 21
D D D W L
12 15 6 2 7 15:20 -5 20
W L L L D
13 15 5 5 5 13:18 -5 20
W D L D D
14 15 5 4 6 16:17 -1 19
L L L D D
15 15 5 3 7 11:19 -8 18
L D L W L
16 15 4 6 5 11:14 -3 18
D W L D L
17 15 4 5 6 13:18 -5 17
D W W W L
18 15 3 6 6 17:17 0 15
L L W L D
19 15 3 3 9 13:19 -6 12
W L L D W
20 15 3 3 9 9:15 -6 12
D L L D W
Play-offs
Relegation